ESPN's FPI gives UK a 1% chance of winning the SEC East

Mrs. Tyler Thompsonalmost 5 years

comments

[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="640"] So you're saying there's a chance...[/caption] ESPN released this flashy little graphic earlier today, which says that Kentucky has a 1% chance of winning the SEC East according to their Football Power Index (FPI). I agree that the odds of Kentucky winning the division are low, but that low? Come on. As Freddie Maggard pointed out, the FPI (which represent how many points above or below average a team is) is kind of whack. Check out where Kentucky ranks compared to their opponents so far this season:
RK TEAM W-L PROJ W-L WIN OUT% CONF WIN% REM SOS RK FPI RESULT VS. UK
1 Alabama

8-0

12.1 - 0.7

41.2 67.4 28 30.3 W
17 Florida

5-1

7.9 - 3.5

0.5 6.2 12 15.7 W
46 Miss St

2-5

3.9 - 8.2

0.0 0.0 22 5.8 L
50 Missouri

2-5

4.7 - 7.3

2.3 0.0 56 5.2 ?
62 Vanderbilt

4-4

4.8 - 7.2

0.1 0.0 3 2.5 L
73 South Carolina

3-4

4.7 - 7.3

0.0 0.0 40 -0.2 L
75 Kentucky

4-3

5.7 - 6.3

0.0 0.0 44 -0.6
86 Southern Miss

4-3

7.4 - 4.9

3.1 7.9 112 -3.4 W
124 New Mexico St

2-5

3.1 - 8.9

0.0 0.0 85 -19.6 L
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Kentucky beat Mississippi State, Vandy, and South Carolina? I'm no stats guru, but how can they be ranked below them? Even more confusing is the FPI's prediction that Kentucky only has a 25.9% chance of beating Missouri, a team whose only wins are over Eastern Michigan and an 0-7 Delaware State squad: screen-shot-2016-10-25-at-3-46-59-pm For reference, Missouri is only a 4.5-point favorite right now in Vegas, meaning they only have a slight edge if you take away home field advantage. Even though I think the game's a toss-up, that makes a lot more sense to me. Again, I doubt Kentucky will win the SEC East, but maybe it's time to stop using the FPI as a reference.

Loading comments...

2021-09-23

Shane Beamer

Scouting Report: South Carolina Gamecocks

As a new era of football begins in Columbia, Shane Beamer is attempting to rebuild the South Carolina football program. The son of legendary head coach Frank Beamer has a long road ahead, but the Gamecocks have made some early progress. This...