How Kentucky Beats Youngstown State

Kentucky is the darling of college football after beating Florida 26-16 in the Swamp. The Wildcats are a Top-10 team and riding high in the eyes of the national media. As for my view, I simply ask “What’s next?” A football season is one of momentum and progression, not reflection and recollection. 

Mark Stoops’ program is evolving from the hunter to the hunted. There’s a big difference. Saturday will provide a unique test for the Cats. Can Kentucky be all-in on an FCS opponent in a noon kickoff matchup in which they are heavily favored? We’ll see. Saturday is also a Youngstown homecoming of sorts for the Wildcat coaching staff. Mark Stoops, Vince Marrow, Mike Stoops, Frank Buffano, and Courtney Love all hail from Youngstown, Ohio. YSU starting linebacker Griffin Hoak is the younger brother of former UK quarterback Gunnar Hoak. The connections are unbounded. 

Lots of tickets are being distributed to family and friends. Reunions will take place after the game. Saturday’s contest isn’t a trap game per se, but there are concerns about a letdown performance with all the secondary influences. If you’ll remember, Chattanooga nearly beat Kentucky at Kroger Field a year ago. Let’s get into the goals for the Cats and Penguins. 

OFFENSE

Praise vs. Production. Something is off here. Yes, Kentucky has done enough offensively to win two football games. But, reality states that the Cats are ranked 14^th or last in the SEC after averaging just 312 total yards per game. Kentucky is also ranked 14th or last with a 5.21 yards per play average. The program sorely misses All-SEC running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. 

Coordinator Rich Scangarello is feeling the impact of an injured RB room and an offensive line that features five new starters. Kavosiey Smoke added a punch to the Cats’ arsenal a week ago. The veteran’s performance was an overriding positive outcome following six quarters of ineffectiveness on the ground. UK’s 60-rush yards per outing is listed at 13th in the league and a far cry from what the BBN has grown accustomed to seeing. 

As expected, Will Levis and an exciting collection of pass catchers are carrying the team until the return of the prized running back. Levis is averaging 253 pass yards per contest. How can Kentucky “Get Right” against Youngstown? The Penguins are giving up just 15 points and 257 yards per outing. Let’s dive into this. 

Balance

A 60/252 run-pass ratio continues to jump out at me when analyzing UK’s numbers. Granted, the season is the summation of two games, so I got it. But, these numbers need to start equaling out. Saturday is a great opportunity to work on this deficiency. A 400 total yard game is a reasonable ask. So is 200 yards rushing. YSU is allowing just 53 yards per game on the ground. I’ll be interested to see which way Scangarello goes with his call sheet. 

One way to attack the Penguins is to rely on his strong-armed quarterback and flashy receivers with homerun capabilities. Tayvion Robinson, Dane Key, and Barion Brown can go the distance. I’m hearing more youthful pass catchers will factor in this week. The coordinator could go for an early knockout punch by throwing early haymakers. The second approach is to focus on running the football. By doing so, Kentucky can gain experience and confidence on the ground by reverting back to the “Bully Ball” mentality from the days of old. We’ll see. 

Florida Second Half Carryover

Kentucky came out swinging in the third and fourth quarters against Florida. Scangarello utilized more tight ends in the run game. Blockers identified, fitted, and targeted the appropriate defenders which led to an increase in ground production. Kavosiey Smoke ran behind his pads more as well. The game slowed down for the offensive line that was playing with a new starting lineup. That was the best-case scenario going forward. 

Kentucky will need that same result vs. YSU. This offensive line badly needs confidence. The way to do that is to stack quarters. The first six of the season were not so good. The last two were good but not great. Four more of those positive 15-minute increments are the preferred outcome. 

Explosives 

Kentucky is the physically superior team. There’s no debate in that argument. A significant increase in speed can be seen from the receiver and tight end rooms. I expect Barion Brown to have a monster game. The Cats also need run-game explosives. Levis averages 9 yards per pass attempt which is a very good number. I’d like to see that jump to over 11 on Saturday. UK’s run game is producing 1.8 yards per attempt. Now, some of that is factored in sacks and a botched punt snap, but I think we can all agree that the Cat’s run game needs to improve. A 5-plus yards per carry outing would be a positive result. Regardless of how, Kentucky is averaging fewer yards per play than the rest of the SEC through two games. That’s got to improve and should start against Youngstown State. 

DEFENSE

The UK defense is experiencing a differing version of the Praise vs. Production discourse. For some unknown reason, the Wildcats’ defense garners much less praise than its offensive friends but the results heavily favor Brad White’s unit. The fact of the matter is that Kentucky is ranked 4^th in the SEC after giving up 280 total yards per game. Kentucky has been extremely efficient on third down. The Cats are ranked 2^nd in the SEC and 18^th in the nation after with a 23.3% conversion rate on the money downs. 

The veteran-heavy Kentucky defense has played lights out in the team’s first two games of the season. The second-half effort at Florida was one of the most dominant halves that I’ve seen from a Kentucky team. So what do we need to see on Saturday? The simple answer is more of the same. 

Fight Back 

The Big Blue Nation has become familiar with the Youngstown toughness that can be felt resonating from Mark Stoops and Vince Marrow. YSU has a team full of tough guys that feel disrespected. Kentucky will face an offense that favors the run. The visitors run for 252 yards per contest and are averaging 40 points per game. RB Jaleel McLaughlin averages 166 yards per outing and is a very good football player. His 10 yards per carry average is impressive. Saturday may not be a fun day because playing against the run is well, not fun. Kentucky will have to be disciplined in its pursuit as well as display sound gap integrity. Holding Youngstown State to 150 rush yards should suffice. The Cats have to fight back against the visitor’s toughness. 

Fire 

Can the Cats regain the fire that they had against the Gators? We’ll see. That defense from a week ago was in the right place at the right time doing the right things. Can that carry over to Saturday? We’ll see. 

YSU quarterback Demeatric Crenshaw is also a very good football player. He was named the MVFC Freshman of the Year in 2021 after rushing for 599 yards and 7 touchdowns. Crenshaw also threw for 791 yards and six scores as a freshman a year ago. He and McLaughlin are quite the duo and will threaten the Wildcat defense at times. 

The longer YSU stays in the game the more of a problem they pose to the Cats. Remember Chattanooga from last season? A fast defensive start is a must. Limiting the visitors to less than 10 first-half points will go a long way. 

Rotation

All the talk from the Florida game surrounded the linebackers. That group deserved a great deal of praise. But, the defensive line was tremendous as well. I expect to see a great deal of personnel rotation in the front seven against YSU. This is why a fast start would benefit Stoops’ team. Kentucky has a chance to play even more of the talented newcomers if a comfortable lead is established. 

SPECIAL TEAMS

The third phase nearly cost the Cats a victory at the Swamp. Two bad snaps and a missed field goal were far too many errors. Here’s what we’d like to see vs. Youngstown State. 

Score

Tayvion Robinson and Barion Brown can take kicks/punts to the house. A score would solve last week’s woes and wake up an early rising crowd for the noon kickoff. 

Snap the Football

All eyes will be on the Wildcat long snappers. Two blatant errors were costly a week ago.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? 

Kentucky should beat Youngstown State. I learned a valuable lesson last season. I said Chattanooga had a zero-point-zero chance of beating the Wildcats. The Mocs got close and made the Kroger Field crowd very uncomfortable. I’ll never use that phrase again. But, Kentucky is the more talented team with more scholarship players and should control the outcome. 

Upsets and close games against inferior opponents have become a weekly occurrence across the nation. Kentucky needs a respective route on Saturday. I’ll explain. The Cats need to jump out to a comfortable lead but not big enough to embarrass their opponent. There are way too many Youngstown connections for the final score to get out of hand. But, the Cats do need to win impressively. Remember, Kentucky is the hunted now. That doesn’t only apply to opponents. National media and pollsters are watching Stoops’ team very closely now. Kentucky now lives in that world. 

Kentucky’s opponent is 2-0. YSU beat over Duquesne 31-14 and Dayton 49-16. A victory over an SEC opponent would shock the college football landscape and bring great joy to Stoops and Marrow’s hometown. How focused will the Cats be at noon? We’ll see. 

Football state.