How To Beat a No. 1 Team (BTI's Rants and Ramblings)

Kentucky faces a tall order tomorrow in Athens against the top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs. But it’s not impossible and the blueprint is out there for things you have to do to beat a #1 team. In the “playoff era,” the #1 team has lost five times in the regular season. Looking at those five games, I think there are two trends that are evident:

Win the Turnover Battle

2021: Texas A&M over Alabama (+1 turnover, 1-2)
2020: Notre Dame over Clemson (+2 turnover, 1-3)
2017: Auburn over Georgia (+1 turnover, 0-1)
2017: Auburn over Alabama (Even turnover, 1-1)
2014: Alabama over Mississippi State (+3 Turnover, 0-3)

In those five games, the winning team won the turnover battle four times and were even in the fifth game. And I think more importantly than that is none of the five winners turned the ball over more than once. Obviously, turnovers have been a problem for Kentucky this season, especially in the first four games. Those will be doom tomorrow trying to beat a No. 1 team if fumbles or interceptions are an issue.

Throw the Ball Effectively

2021: Texas A&M, 285 passing yards
2020: Notre Dame, 310 passing yards
2017: Auburn, 251 passing yards
2017: Auburn, 240 passing yards
2014: Alabama, 211 passing yards

You see a variety of rushing yards from these five games but in all of them, the passing game was key. 211 yards was the minimum and with an average of 259 yards per game, UK is going to have to be able to throw the ball to beat a #1 team? Why? Because the ability to convert third downs through the air and hit a few big plays are key in an upset. What is interesting is looking at those five teams above, none of those teams was/is a pass-first offense. They all like to run the ball but in each case, the passing game was more effective in the upset. Will Levis can not have a 150-yard passing game against Georgia. If he doesn’t hit 225 yards, I think the chances go down significantly.