KenPom, Bart Torvik Predictions for Kentucky's next three games

With just over a month left in the regular season, Kentucky truly controls its destiny. The Cats are on the NCAA Tournament bubble in most projections, but six of their remaining nine games are in Quad 1. Win at least half of those, don’t suffer any bad losses, and turn in a decent showing at the SEC Tournament and you’re probably safely in the Big Dance.

Kentucky’s next Quad 1 game is vs. Arkansas on Tuesday night in Rupp. That matchup is sandwiched by the only two Quad 2 games currently on the schedule, vs. Florida at home and at Georgia on Feb. 11. We’ll have plenty to say about each opponent and matchup in the coming days, but what are the computer models predicting?

First, a look at where the Cats stand in the eyes of the computers. Kentucky is No. 35 in the NET Rankings, the NCAA’s ranking system/sorting tool; No. 35 in KenPom; and No. 61 in BartTorvik’s T-Rank, another rating system. The Cats are still outside the AP and Coaches Polls.

• Record: 15-7 (6-3 SEC)
• AP/Coaches Poll: NR/NR
• NET: 35
• KenPom: 35
• BartTorvik: 61

Let’s see what KenPom and BartTorvik are saying about the next three games and then take a peek further down the road.

---

Florida Gators

Sat., Feb. 4, 8:30 PM ET, Rupp Arena (Lexington, KY), ESPN

• Record: 13-9 (6-3 SEC)
• AP/Coaches Poll: NR/NR
• NET: 41 (Quad 2)
• KenPom: 38
• BartTorvik: 41

The Gators are riding high after last night’s 67-54 upset of No. 2 Tennessee. Florida has won six of its last eight games, the only losses being at Texas A&M (54-52) and at No. 5 Kansas State (64-50). Todd Golden may look like he’s 12, but already has a signature win in his first year as the Gators’ head coach. Colin Castleton, who scored 41 points in two games vs. Kentucky last season, had 20 vs. Tennessee last night, 16 in the second half. Florida has two Quad wins (Tennessee, at Mississippi State) in the last two weeks.

Given the Gators’ momentum, I’m glad Saturday’s game is at Rupp. A loud home crowd should help the Cats take care of business, but I’ll admit the game in Gainesville later this month looks a little daunting.

KenPom: Kentucky 70, Florida 66 (63% chance of winning)

Torvik: Kentucky 68, Florida 66 (58% chance of winning)

---

Arkansas Razorbacks

Tue., Feb. 7, 9:00 PM ET, Rupp Arena (Lexington, KY), ESPN

• Record: 15-7 (4-5 SEC)
• AP/Coaches Poll: RV/NR
• NET: 28 (Quad 1)
• KenPom: 20
• BartTorvik: 22

The Razorbacks were a preseason Top 10 team but hit a major skid when SEC play started, losing five of their first six conference games. Eric Musselman’s squad has sort of found its footing in recent weeks, beating Ole Miss, LSU, and Texas A&M and coming within four points of beating No. 17 Baylor in Waco. Guards Ricky Council IV and Davonte Davis have been terrific as of late, averaging a combined 39.5 points in the last two games.

Arkansas won its last game in Rupp, on Feb. 9, 2021, and all their SEC struggles aside, you know Musselman will have his team fired up Tuesday night. Arkansas is No. 28 in the NET, so we need them to stay in the Top 30 for this game to remain a Quad 1 opportunity. Right now, the computer models see this as a toss-up.

KenPom: Kentucky 71, Arkansas 70 (56% chance of winning)

Torvik: Arkansas 71, Kentucky 70 (49% chance of winning)

---

Georgia Bulldogs

Sat., Feb. 11, Noon ET, Stegeman Coliseum (Athens, GA), ESPN

• Record: 14-8 (4-5 SEC)
• AP/Coaches Poll: NR/NR
• NET: 116 (Quad 2)
• KenPom: 107
• BartTorvik: 108

Kentucky has already faced Georgia once, beating the Bulldogs 85-71 in Rupp Arena on Jan. 17. That game will be remembered for Oscar Tshiebwe‘s 37 points and 24 rebounds, but Georgia actually led Kentucky by eight at halftime before Oscar took over. Since then, the Bulldogs have lost three of their last four, the only win coming against South Carolina in overtime. Tennessee beat Georgia by almost 30 points on Jan. 25. Last night, No. 25 Auburn completed a sweep with a 94-73 victory, scoring 48 points in the paint.

Clearly, the Bulldogs’ biggest weakness is inside. Winning on the road in the SEC is never easy, so another big game from Oscar would go a long way to helping the Cats take care of business. Despite the previous result, both computer models think this will be a close one in Athens.

KenPom: Kentucky 72, Georgia 68 (64% chance of winning)

Torvik: Kentucky 70, Georgia 69 (54% chance of winning)

---

Projected Record, SEC Standings

Kentucky is currently 15-7, 6-3 in the SEC. KenPom projects the Cats will finish with a 20-11 record, 11-7 in the SEC. Torvik goes slightly lower at 19-12 and 10-8. Both models have Kentucky losing at Mississippi State (Feb. 15), vs. Tennessee at home (Feb. 18), and at Florida (Feb. 22), a crucial three-game stretch, and at Arkansas to finish the regular season.

Right now, Kentucky is tied with Florida for fifth place in the SEC behind Alabama, Tennessee, Auburn, and Texas A&M. KenPom’s projected SEC Standings have Kentucky finishing tied with Auburn and Florida for fourth. The Cats play the Gators twice and the Tigers once. Wins would be huge for tiebreaker purposes so Kentucky can avoid playing on Thursday at the SEC Tournament.