KenPon, Sagarin predictions for Kentucky's next four games
Kentucky’s December schedule is tougher than its November schedule, to say the least. After feasting on lesser opponents, the Cats will be put to the test starting Saturday at Notre Dame, the first true road game of the season. A week later, Kentucky will face No. 21 Ohio State in Las Vegas before returning home to host the Louisville Cardinals on December 22.
What are the computer models saying about Kentucky’s next four games? I’m glad you asked. First, a rundown of where the Cats stand in the rankings and ratings seven games in:
Southern University Jaguars
Tuesday, December 7, 7 p.m., Rupp Arena (Lexington, KY), SEC Network
This is the last cupcake of Kentucky’s seven-game homestand. The Jaguars lost to Louisville by 12 to open the season and have wins over Tulane, Ecclesia, and Tennessee State. They lead the SWAC but shouldn’t provide too much of a challenge in Rupp tonight — although, Florida’s loss to 0-7 Texas Southern last night showed us anything can happen.
Sagarin Predictor: Kentucky -27
KenPom: Kentucky 86, Southern 59 (99% chance of winning)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Saturday, December 11, 5:15 p.m., Purcell Pavilion (South Bend, IN), ESPN
Kentucky’s first true road game of the season happens this Saturday in South Bend. The Fighting Irish are riding a three-game losing streak, falling to Texas A&M in the Maui Invitational, at Illinois, and at Boston College. Their only win over the last five games has been against Division II Chaminade. That being said, Kentucky has lost its last two games in South Bend. Funny things can happen on the road, especially this early in the season.
Sagarin Predictor: Kentucky -5.5
KenPom: Kentucky 74, Notre Dame 72 (59% chance of winning)
Ohio State Buckeyes
Saturday, December 18, 5:15 p.m., T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas, NV), CBS
The Buckeyes are riding high after their upset of then-No. 1 Duke last week. After trailing by 13 at halftime, Ohio State stormed back, finishing the game on a 12-0 run and holding Duke scoreless for the final four and a half minutes. Kentucky has lost its last two games to Ohio State in the CBS Sports Classic, most recently in December 2019 in Vegas. This one is setting up to be close too. We’ll know more about the Buckeyes after their game vs. No. 22 Wisconsin on Saturday.
Sagarin Predictor: Kentucky -0.5
KenPom: Kentucky 73, Ohio State 72 (52% chance of winning)
Louisville Cardinals
Wednesday, December 22, 6 p.m., Rupp Arena (Lexington, KY), ESPN
Louisville bounced back from a loss at Michigan State with a five-point win at NC State. The Cards also have wins over Mississippi State and Maryland, but the overtime loss to Furman and scare vs. Detroit Mercy tell the real story. In Rupp Arena, the Cats should take care of business and avenge last year’s loss in Louisville.
Sagarin Predictor: Kentucky -7
KenPom: Kentucky 74, Louisville 66
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