Kentucky Derby Debriefing: How in the Hell did Rich Strike Win?

On3 imageby:Nick Roush05/09/22

RoushKSR

Hi there. How’s everyone feeling this morning? Yeah, I’m pretty rough too. The Monday after the Kentucky Derby is one of the worst Mondays of the calendar year, right up there with the first Monday of the New Year. After walking 10+ miles, losing countless bets and drinking God knows how many beers over three days at Churchill Downs, my head is still spinning. It’s not from the booze. Rich Strike won Kentucky Derby 148 and it’s still difficult to digest 48 hours later.

The Longest Shot!

An 80-1 long shot still cannot accurately quantify the improbability for Rich Strike to win the Kentucky Derby. A week before the race it was No. 24 in the potential 20-horse field. It took a lot of luck just to have enough scratches to get the horse into the field.

Rich Strike’s owners probably considered just making it into the Kentucky Derby field a win. After all, Rick Dawson acquired Rich Strike from Calumet Farm in a $30,000 claiming race, the horse’s most recent victory last September.

Claimers don’t win the Kentucky Derby. They don’t even run in the Kentucky Derby. They’re owned by people like my parents, who hopped into a syndicate a time or two just to have the experience of owning a piece of a horse. Winning in the second race on a random Tuesday in July at Indiana Grand would be considered a successful return on investment for a $30,000 claimer. Winning the Kentucky Derby? Unfathomable. Truly the longest shot.

Fast Fractions and Fade Roush

How does the greatest upset come to be? You get Roush to jinx the hell out of it. Of all the fades, I’ve never faded a race day harder than Kentucky Derby 148.

Leading into the race my research set me down a path to two posts. I made the case for every horse in the field, and Rich Strike was not one of them. I also went to great lengths to share how the Derby became a race for frontrunners, not closers. Of course, a closer sealed the deal thanks to a perfect set of circumstances.

One thing I did correctly predict: the international horses burnt up the pace. Summer is Tomorrow and Crown Pride posted a record-breaking half-mile. Track announcer Travis Stone described it emphatically as, “A merciless pace.” It exhausted the competition, leaving the door open for a closer to steal the victory.

Even if one were to predict the pact to fall apart, Rich Strike was not supposed to be the closer ready to take the roses. Zandon and Mo Donegal were the heralded late-finishers entering the race and the former was right there, ready to chase down Epicenter until Sonny Leon made a daring move up the rail with Rich Strike, stealing hearts around America.

Horse Racing Refresh

“A great day for horse racing” is a cliche that got used often when American Pharoah won the Triple Crown. That trope is back just in time for the sport to wash the Bob Baffert stink off its hooves. Baffert’s absence was discussed at length entering the race. He became an afterthought in the Rich Strike aftermath. This Derby everything a casual horse fan loves to see:

  • Big Long Shot Upset
  • Dramatic Finish
  • Unheralded Connections with Inspiring Stories

How can you not cheer for the trainer who lost two dozen horses in a barn fire less than a year ago? After dealing with a sly trainer who developed a reputation for cheating, Rich Strike’s inspiring story reminds casual horse racing fans why they still tune in a couple times a year.

Asmussen: Always the Bridesmaid

We know what they say about a man who gets fooled once, then twice, but what about three times? Steve Asmussen has now had three different horses on the lead entering the stretch run of the Kentucky Derby, only to come up short every. single. time. Curlin and Gun Runner each became Horse of the Year, but just like Epicenter, they could not close out the victory on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs. Steve Asmussen leads all North American trainers in wins, but he is now 0-23 in the Kentucky Derby.

“It’s as improbable of any scenario as any of us imagined,” Asmussen told Rick Bozich. “At the head of the stretch, where (Rosario) put him, this is what you’re dreaming about.

“Oh and by the way, you’re about to get run down by a claimer. An ex-claimer. I promise you he won’t ever be (claimed) again.”

Tough Day for TVG

The only folks who had a worse day than Asmussen were the people at TVG. Just before the biggest wagering day of the year, the betting app crashed. Churchill Downs patrons initially believed it was just bad cell service. Nope, our friends at NYRA Bets were still rocking and rolling, all while TVG was missing out on hundreds and thousands of dollars in wagers. Tough.

Infield Music > All Other Music

The three-day horse racing event is unlike anything else around Kentucky. Adding live music to the equation on Thurby took things to another level. Nathaniel Rateliff and the Night Sweats did four sets in-between the afternoon’s races, providing the perfect injection of energy into the primarily local crowd. Churchill Downs should add live music to the Infield every year, and if they did it for every single day of races, I wouldn’t be mad about it at all.

The First Kentucky Derby Bet and the Last

Casual racing fans should not get down on themselves for losing bets during Derby weekend. It’s very hard to pick winners. Outside of the Breeders’ Cup, the racing is as good as it gets. Instead of relishing on the losses, enjoy the wins, as nominal as they may be. Like a bad golfer, it only takes one good swing to bring you back to the course. After nailing the first Pick Three of the weekend, I didn’t cash another profitable ticket until the last race. I guess I’ll just have to go back to Churchill this week to cash that ticket. Twist my arm.

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