Kentucky's strong road underdog trend could payoff in 2025

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NCAA Football: Kentucky at Mississippi — Sep 28, 2024; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Stoops reacts after defeating the Mississippi Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Expectations are not high for Mark Stoops and his Kentucky football program entering the 2025 season. Many are picking the Wildcats to finish 15th in the SEC and that means another losing season would be coming to Lexington. The Cats are a true underdog who will look to prove people wrong this year on the field.

From a betting spread perspective, Kentucky has overachieved expectations despite the program going on a slide over the last three seasons. The Cats have recorded four consecutive winning against-the-spread (ATS) records. That number is five if you throw out the All-SEC COVID-19 season. The Cats are 30-21 ATS in their last 51 games. They’ve really been good on the road as a dog.

That could payoff in 2025.

UK is scheduled to play five true road games this season against South Carolina (Sept. 27), Georgia (Oct. 4), Auburn (Nov. 1), Vanderbilt (Nov. 22), and Louisville (Nov. 29). The Cats are currently projected to be a dog in four of those games with the contest against Vanderbilt very much in toss-up territory. That means that UK might not be expected to win any of those games.

But this is where UK has performed well in recent seasons.

Kentucky is 8-3 ATS as a road dog over the last four seasons with outright upset wins against Louisville (2021, 2023), Florida (2022), and Ole Miss (2024). Three of those wins occurred against opponents ranked inside the top 15. The Cats have pulled off an upset road win in five consecutive seasons.

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How does UK exceed expectations this year? Likely by winning a road game no one expects them to win. Recent history tells us that is likely to happen. Knocking off Georgia is hard to envision but the season could come down to UK beating South Carolina, Auburn, or Louisville. Just getting one of those wins would give the Cats a great shot at making a bowl game and overachieving expectations.

Kentucky’s projected spreads

Using the most recent rankings in ESPN’s latest SP+ rankings, this is what the projected spread would be for each Kentucky game against FBS competition. The Cats will be a touchdown-plus dog in a lot of games.

Game	Spread
Toledo at Kentucky (Aug. 30)	UK (-10.5)
Ole Miss at Kentucky (Sept. 6)	UK (+12)
Eastern Michigan at Kentucky (Sept. 13)	UK (-22)
Kentucky at South Carolina (Sept. 27)	UK (+13)
Kentucky at Georgia (Oct. 4)	UK (+20)
Texas at Kentucky (Oct. 18)	UK (+13.5)
Tennessee at Kentucky (Oct. 25)	UK (+13)
Kentucky at Auburn (Nov. 1)	UK (+7.5)
Florida at Kentucky (Nov. 8)	UK (+6)
Tennessee Tech at Kentucky (Nov. 15)	N/A
Kentucky at Vanderbilt (Nov. 22)	UK (-2.5)
Kentucky at Louisville (Nov. 29)	UK (+8)