Swing Games: 3 matchups that could determine Kentucky's season
College football is a small sample-size sport. Teams are only guaranteed 12 games per year, and you never really know when or how the injury bug is going to hit certain teams. For just about every team outside the few elite national championship contenders and those at the bottom of the food chain, close game results usually separate success from failure.
That remains true for Kentucky football.
Since the program’s bowl streak began in 2016, Mark Stoops has recorded a 22-11 (13-10) record in one-possession games. Kentucky has not finished with a losing record in close games during this stretch. Part of the reason that UK had a disappointing season in 2022 was due to a 1-2 record in close conference games as the Cats lost very winnable games in the fourth quarter to Ole Miss and Vanderbilt.
For the Wildcats to make another run at double-digit wins and a big bowl game, the program must get back to winning close games in SEC play. Heading into the season, three games stand out above the rest.
Florida (Sept. 30)
Kentucky’s 2022 campaign ended with a whimper, but let’s not forget about the high point of the season. For the second time in the last three trips, UK went into Ben Hill Griffin Stadium and knocked off the Gators in The Swamp in front of a juiced-up crowd that thought Anthony Richardson could be starting a Heisman Trophy run.
Kentucky now has a chance to knock off Florida in consecutive meetings in Lexington. With what the Gators have on the roster and the situation of where this game lands, the meeting between the two SEC East programs in Week 5 feels like the most important game on the schedule.
Awaiting Kentucky in October/November is a backloaded schedule with games against Alabama and Georgia on top of road trips to Louisville, Mississippi State, and South Carolina. Things will get difficult. However, there is a chance to stack wins in the first five weeks. Kentucky will be a heavy favorite against Group of Five and FCS competition in the first three weeks. The Wildcats should also beat Vanderbilt on the road. That sets the stage for the first big home game of the season.
Billy Napier will have a roster with talent, but the Gators will be young. Kentucky is better at quarterback and wide receiver and could have a better defense. The spread in this game will likely be very close. A win could setup up another ranked showdown with Georgia in Athens the following week that should include some strong buzz for the program. Kentucky needs to beat Florida to avoid falling into a hole that could include consecutive SEC losses early in the season.
Mississippi State (Nov. 4)
Kentucky has not won in Starkville since 2008. The Wildcats have not beaten an SEC West team on the road since 2009. The SEC West will be eliminated after 2023. UK needs to end this streak now.
Defensive coordinator Zach Arnett was promoted to head coach following the tragic passing of Mike Leach, and this is a program going through transition. Arnett will no longer be calling defensive plays, and Mississippi State is scrapping the Air Raid scheme for a wide zone, play-action shot play offense. There are numerous questions surrounding the Bulldogs.
Kentucky has never played well at Davis-Wade Stadium under Mark Stoops, and that needs to change. The week before, UK hosts Tennessee in a monstrous game at Kroger Field. No matter what that result is, UK must find a way to get a road win or two outside of Vanderbilt. The trip to Starkville in Week 10 feels like a great opportunity.
The contest will be a 50/50 game, and Kentucky is due to finally get a win in Starkville.
Louisville (Nov. 25)
Kentucky 179, Louisville 57. The Governor’s Cup series has been this one-sided since 2018.
The Wildcats have won four consecutive games in this rivalry with a huge average margin of victory (30.5 points). Louisville is hoping that things will change after Jeff Brohm replaced Scott Satterfield in the Derby City.
Despite having 11 power conference opponents on the schedule, Louisville has one of the easiest schedules in Power Five football. Add in the work done by the new coaching staff in the transfer portal and year one has raised expectations for Brohm. However, he will ultimately be judged on getting the Kentucky series turned around.
Kentucky will be looking to keep its dominance over the in-state rival.
If things go to plan for both programs this season, we could very well get a ranked vs. ranked matchup when the Cats head down I-64 on Thanksgiving weekend. This game means a lot for both sides, and Brohm coming home should add some fuel to the rivalry fire. A third consecutive win at Louisville would give the Big Blue Nation bragging rights for another offseason and that matters in college football.
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