Kentucky MBB should swap long-2s for more shots at the rim

On3 imageby:Zack Geoghegan11/17/21

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It’s a small sample size, but Kentucky is shooting roughly half as many free throws as its opponents this season.

UK is 22-27 from the charity stripe through three games, an 81.5 percent mark that is incredibly encouraging moving forward. The side benefit of having a roster loaded with good shooters is that good free throw shooting typically comes with it. But here’s the issue: Kentucky’s opponents have already attempted 52 free throws, connecting on 36 (69.2 percent). The ‘Cats rank 341 out of 358 Divison I teams in terms of free throw rate, according to KenPom.com.

Averaging just nine free throws per game thus far has only truly hurt UK’s chances to win once, but it was a big one. The ‘Cats finished 6-7 from the line against Duke in Madison Square Garden while the Blue Devils more than tripled those attempts, going 16-23. Duke won by eight points in a game where they hit 10 more free throws.

The early returns on Kentucky’s offense have been exciting. Sahvir Wheeler is a pure point guard. Oscar Tshiebwe is the best offensive rebounder in the country. There are shooters galore and athletes to boot. But the free throw numbers don’t lie: UK needs to get to the rim more, and the easiest way to do so would be to cut out as many long two-pointers or contested jumpers as possible.

Wheeler and Keion Brooks Jr. have been the two main culprits of firing up ill-timed, contested shots. Davion Mintz and Daimion Collins have fired up a couple as well. Those first two have flashed an improved outside shot, but challenged mid-rangers are far less valuable than a pump fake and drive to the rim. Those bad shots are costing Kentucky better looks and potential trips to the line. At the very least, taking a step back and trying for the extra point is still a better option.

“That three (Wheeler) took with the guy on him,” head coach John Calipari said Tuesday night after the 80-55 win over Mount St. Mary’s. “I said, ‘Why would you do that? If the ball went in and out to you, shoot the three every single time. The guy is on you. Go by him. Get us something.’ You don’t shoot that ball. It’s a bank miss.”

Some of it has to do with aggression. Kentucky players are settling for these jumpers early. The good news is, as the game progresses, the fewer those shots are taken, but it’s still costing UK points in the long run.

All four of the shots above happened in the first half. All four were bad shots that could have been drives to the basket. Kentucky attempted zero of these in the second half.

Kentucky’s shooters also need to take more 3s. The ‘Cats rank in the bottom half of the country in percentage of points that come from beyond the arc despite ranking top-20 in 3-point percentage. 63.7 percent of UK’s points come from 2-point range (16th most in the country) while free throws account for under nine percent (335th most). That’s not an ideal distribution for this roster. But swapping mid-range jump shots for drives to the rim will adjust them appropriately. More drives and kicks will free rotating shooters.

At this point, the only player who should be taking any 15-18 foot jumpers is Oscar Tshiebwe. His teammates and Calipari have been raving about his proficiency to hit from that spot. Tshiebwe finally whipped it out on Tuesday night.

The more he hits that shot, the more it opens up the floor for himself and those around him. The threat of Tshiebwe hitting long-2s should theoretically pull the shot blocker away from the rim and open more driving lines; everyone else just has to take advantage.

It’s still very early in the season though. Kentucky’s veterans will learn to cut these shots out of the offensive arsenal. However, the lack of free throws is notable. There really isn’t much excuse for a lineup comprised of eight players who are at least 6-foot-5 to average just nine of them per game.

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2024-03-28