How the SEC Tournament could impact Kentucky's case for a No. 1 seed
The regular season is now complete and Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament resume is looking good with room to grow. The Cats’ win at Florida on Saturday took their Quad 1 record to 8-6. At the SEC Tournament, Kentucky could play three more Quad 1 games. As we’ll discuss here in a minute, not all of the potential No. 1 seeds can say that.
First, let’s review the current NET rankings. Kentucky is fourth behind Gonzaga, Arizona, and Baylor.
NET Top 25 – March 7
- Gonzaga
- Arizona
- Baylor
- Kentucky
- Houston
- Villanova
- Kansas
- Tennessee
- Duke
- Auburn
- UCLA
- Texas Tech
- Purdue
- Illinois
- Iowa
- LSU
- Texas
- UConn
- Saint Mary’s
- Arkansas
- Wisconsin
- Ohio State
- Murray State
- San Francisco
- Loyola Chicago
Kentucky is No. 3 in KenPom and ESPN’s BPI and No. 4 in the Sagarin Ratings. We’ll find out the Cats’ updated AP and Coaches Poll rankings at noon.
NET changes for the 2021-22 season
This is the fourth season the NCAA has used the NET Rankings as its primary metric to evaluate the strength of teams’ wins and losses. This year, the formula has been tweaked. From now on, the NET will only use two components, adjusted net efficiency rating and Team Value Index (TVI), which is a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home. Win percentage, adjusted win percentage, and scoring margin are no longer used in the NET rankings.
Kentucky’s Team Sheet
Kentucky’s eight Quad 1 wins are tied for the third most with Gonzaga, Auburn, and Wisconsin. Baylor has the most, with eleven, followed by Kansas with ten. The Cats would have nine Quad 1 wins, but Vanderbilt’s NET ranking fell to No. 79, which moved the victory over the ‘Dores in Nashville to Quad 2. The Cats are undefeated in Quads 2-4, which Gonzaga, Arizona, and Auburn can also boast.
Quad 1: 8-6
Home: 1-30, Neutral: 1-50, Away: 1-75
| NET Ranking | Date | Opponent | In Conference? | Result |
| 7 | 01/29/2022 | @ Kansas | W 80-62 | |
| 8 | 02/15/2022 | @ Tennessee | Y | L 63-76 |
| 8 | 01/15/2022 | Tennessee | Y | W 107-79 |
| 9 | 11/09/2021 | Duke (@ New York, NY) | L 71-79 | |
| 10 | 01/22/2022 | @ Auburn | Y | L 71-80 |
| 16 | 01/04/2022 | @ LSU | Y | L 60-65 |
| 16 | 02/23/2022 | LSU | Y | W 71-66 |
| 20 | 02/26/2022 | @ Arkansas | Y | L 73-75 |
| 22 | 12/18/2021 | Ohio St. (@ Las Vegas, NV) | Canceled | |
| 28 | 02/05/2022 | @ Alabama | Y | W 66-55 |
| 28 | 02/19/2022 | Alabama | Y | W 90-81 |
| 33 | 12/18/2021 | North Carolina (@ Las Vegas, NV) | W 98-69 | |
| 50 | 12/11/2021 | @ Notre Dame | L 62-66 | |
| 54 | 03/05/2022 | @ Florida | Y | W 71-63 |
| 56 | 01/19/2022 | @ Texas A&M | Y | W 64-58 |
Quad 2: 4-0
Home: 31-75, Neutral: 51-100, Away: 76-135
| NET Ranking | Date | Opponent | In Conference? | Result |
| 54 | 02/12/2022 | Florida | Y | W 78-57 |
| 57 | 01/25/2022 | Mississippi St. | Y | W 82-74 (1 OT) |
| 79 | 01/11/2022 | @ Vanderbilt | Y | W 78-66 |
| 90 | 02/08/2022 | @ South Carolina | Y | W 86-76 |
Quad 3: 5-0
Home: 76-160, Neutral: 101-200, Away: 136-240
| NET Ranking | Date | Opponent | In Conference? | Result |
| 79 | 02/02/2022 | Vanderbilt | Y | W 77-70 |
| 106 | 03/01/2022 | Ole Miss | Y | W 83-72 |
| 111 | 11/19/2021 | Ohio | W 77-59 | |
| 121 | 12/22/2021 | Western Ky. | W 95-60 | |
| 137 | 12/22/2021 | Louisville | Ppd | |
| 153 | 12/29/2021 | Missouri | Y | W 83-56 |
Quad 4: 8-0
Home: 161-357, Neutral: 201-357, Away: 241-357
| NET Ranking | Date | Opponent | In Conference? | Result |
| 210 | 12/07/2021 | Southern U. | W 76-64 | |
| 213 | 01/08/2022 | Georgia | Y | W 92-77 |
| 254 | 11/16/2021 | Mount St. Mary’s | W 80-55 | |
| 261 | 12/31/2021 | High Point | W 92-48 | |
| 275 | 11/26/2021 | North Florida | W 86-52 | |
| 284 | 11/22/2021 | Albany (NY) | W 86-61 | |
| 318 | 11/29/2021 | Central Mich. | W 85-57 | |
| 330 | 11/12/2021 | Robert Morris | W 100-60 |
Kentucky’s resume vs. other potential No. 1, No. 2 seeds
Kentucky is a No. 2 seed in all major NCAA Tournament projections, but a strong performance in the SEC Tournament could push the Cats to the No. 1 seed line. Right now, Kentucky is the No. 6 overall team on the Bracket Matrix behind Kansas. Joe Lunardi has the Cats at No. 6 too behind Kansas (No. 4) and Auburn (No. 5). CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm moved the Cats up to No. 5, making them the highest No. 2 seed.
Here’s how Kentucky’s team sheet compares to the top eight teams on the Bracket Matrix.
| Team | Record | NET | KenPom | SOS | Non-Con SOS | Quad 1 (Quad 1A) | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | Quad 4 |
| Gonzaga | 24-3, 13-1 WCC | 1 | 1 | 69 | 65 | 8-3 (3-2) | 2-0 | 1-0 | 13-0 |
| Baylor | 26-5, 14-4 Big 12 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 103 | 11-4 (3-4) | 7-1 | 2-0 | 6-0 |
| Arizona | 28-3, 18-2 Pac-12 | 2 | 2 | 65 | 67 | 5-3 (3-2) | 9-0 | 6-0 | 8-0 |
| Kansas | 25-6, 14-4 Big 12 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 76 | 10-5 (2-4) | 7-1 | 5-0 | 3-0 |
| Kentucky | 25-6, 14-4 SEC | 4 | 3 | 24 | 116 | 8-6 (3-5) | 4-0 | 5-0 | 8-0 |
| Auburn | 27-4, 15-3 SEC | 10 | 7 | 40 | 86 | 8-4 (3-3) | 6-0 | 9-0 | 4-0 |
| Duke | 26-5, 16-4 ACC | 9 | 6 | 72 | 110 | 5-1 (4-1) | 5-3 | 9-1 | 7-0 |
| Wisconsin | 24-6, 15-5 Big 10 | 21 | 30 | 18 | 39 | 8-3 (6-2) | 8-1 | 4-2 | 4-0 |
Who can add to their resume the most this week? Kentucky, Baylor, and Wisconsin all have THREE potential Quad 1 games remaining.
Gonzaga
Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 2 (Max Quad 1 record 10-3)
- Mon., March 7 (WCC Semifinals): vs. San Francisco (NET 24) – Quad 1
- Tue., March 8 (WCC Finals): vs. Santa Clara (NET 67)/Saint Mary’s (NET 19) – Quad 1 or 2
Baylor
Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 3 (Max Quad 1 record 14-4)
- Thurs., March 10 (Big 12 Quarterfinals): vs. Oklahoma (NET 42) – Quad 1
- Fri., March 11 (Big 12 Semifinals): vs. Texas Tech (NET 12)/Iowa State (NET 41) – Quad 1
- Sat., March 12 (Big 12 Finals): Only Quad 1 if it’s Kansas, Texas, or TCU
Arizona
Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 1 (Max Quad 1 record 6-3)
- Thurs., March 10 (Pac-12 Quarterfinals): vs. Stanford (NET 108)/Arizona State (NET 96) – Quad 2 or 3
- Fri., March 11 (Pac-12 Semifinals): vs. Colorado (NET 75), Oregon (NET 74), Oregon State (NET 252) – Quad 2 or 4
- Sat., March 12 (Pac-12 Finals): Only Quad 1 if it’s UCLA (NET 11) or USC (NET 34)
Kansas
Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 2 (Max Quad 1 record 12-5)
- Thurs., March 10 (Big 12 Quarterfinals): vs. Kansas State (NET No. 71)/West Virginia (NET No. 78) – Quad 2
- Fri., March 11 (Big 12 Semifinals): vs. Texas (NET No. 17)/TCU (No. 46) – Quad 1
- Sat., March 12 (Big 12 Finals): vs. Baylor (NET 3)/Oklahoma (NET 42)/Texas Tech (NET 12)/Iowa State (NET 41) – Quad 1
Kentucky
Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 3 (Max Quad 1 record: 11-6)
- Fri., March 11 (SEC Quarterfinals): vs. Alabama (NET 28)/Vanderbilt (NET 79)/Georgia (NET 213) – Quad 1, 2 or 4
- Sat., March 12 (SEC Semifinals) vs. Tennessee (NET 8)/Mississippi State (NET 57)/South Carolina (NET 90) – Quad 1 or 2
- Sun., March 13 (SEC Finals) – Only Quad 1 if it’s Auburn (NET 10), Arkansas (NET 20), or LSU (NET 16)
Auburn
Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 2 (Max Quad 1 record: 10-4)
- Fri., March 11 (SEC Quarterfinals): vs. Florida (NET 54)/Texas A&M (NET 56) – Quad 2
- Sat., March 12 (SEC Semifinals): vs. Arkansas (NET 20)/LSU (NET 16)/Ole Miss (NET 106)/Missouri (NET 153) – Quad 1 or Quad 3
- Sun., March 13 (SEC Finals): Only Quad 1 if it’s Kentucky (NET 4), Tennessee (NET 8), or Alabama (NET 28)
Duke
Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 2 (Max Quad 1 record: 7-1)
- Thurs., March 10 (ACC Quarterfinals): vs. Florida State (NET 99)/Syracuse (NET 94) – Quad 2
- Fri., March 11 (ACC Semifinals): vs. Miami (NET 59)/Wake Forest (NET 39)/Boston College (NET 170)/Pitt (NET 193) – Quad 1, 2, or 3
- Sat., March 12 (ACC Finals): Only Quad 1 if it’s North Carolina (NET 33) or Notre Dame (NET 50)
Wisconsin
Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 3 (Max Quad 1 record: 11-3)
- Fri., March 11 (Big Ten Quarterfinals): vs. Michigan State (NET 40)/Maryland (NET 89) – Quad 1 or 2
- Sat., March 12 (Big Ten Semifinals): vs. Purdue (NET 13)/Ohio State (NET 22)/Minnesota (NET 107)/Penn State (NET 93) – Quad 1, 2 or 3
- Sun., March 13 (Big Ten Finals): Only Quad 1 if it’s Illinois (NET 14), Iowa (NET 15), Michigan (NET 31) or Indiana (NET 44)
As John Calipari says, the SEC Tournament is all about seeding. If the Cats win it — or even just make the semifinals depending on other results — they’d have a resume worthy of a No. 1 seed.
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