Kentucky's NCAA Tournament resume is suddenly shaping up after win at Arkansas

Last Monday, we said that if Kentucky went 1-1 vs. Vanderbilt and Arkansas, both Quad 1 games, the week would be considered a success. It happened in just about the wildest way possible, the Cats losing by 25 in Nashville and upsetting Arkansas in Fayetteville. That’s not the only boost Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament resume got over the weekend.

Kentucky is back up to No. 28 in the NET Rankings after falling to No. 35 after the Vandy loss. There has been a LOT of movement on the Cats’ team sheet. Last Monday, Kentucky was 3-5 in Quad 1; now, the Cats are 5-6. Obviously, one of those wins was over Arkansas, and the loss at Vanderbilt; however, Indiana is up to No. 30 in the NET, which moves the win over the Hoosiers in Rupp back to Quad 1 for now. For the resume’s sake, it would be nice if it stayed there.

Kentucky now has more Quad 1 wins (5) than Arkansas, Florida, BYU, North Carolina, Alabama, Gonzaga, and Louisville. Only eight teams in college basketball have more. This week, the Cats can add another Quad 1 win vs. Tennessee (NET 21) on Saturday. Wednesday’s game vs.

Oklahoma is now in Quad 3, as the Sooners have fallen out of the Top 75 of the NET after eight straight losses (!). Porter Moser’s squad has only won one SEC game, its conference opener, vs. Ole Miss on Jan. 3. The Sooners may be bad, but Kentucky can’t afford to overlook them at home after the big win in Fayetteville. Road wins are the most valuable in the eyes of the Selection Committee, but can be offset by bad home losses.

I wouldn’t have believed it on Wednesday, but Kentucky’s team sheet is shaping up. Six of the remaining nine regular-season games are in Quad 1. If this team can find some consistency, they may be able to secure a decent seed on Selection Sunday, which is just 41 days away.

Let’s break it down.

• Quad 1: 5-6 (Games Remaining: 6)
  • Quad 1A: 3-5
  • Quad 1B: 2-1
• Quad 2: 1-1 (Games Remaining: 2)
• Quad 3: 3-0 (Games Remaining: 1)
• Quad 4: 7-0 (Games Remaining: 0)

Quad 1: 5-6

Quad 1A: 3-5

Home 1-15 | Neutral 1-25 | Away 1-40

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
5	12/05/2025	Gonzaga (Nashville, TN)	L 59-94
11	11/18/2025	Michigan State (Champions Classic)	L 66-83
12	02/14/2026	@ Florida
12	03/07/2026	Florida
13	01/27/2026	@ Vanderbilt	L 55-80
13	02/28/2026	Vanderbilt
17	11/11/2025	@ Louisville	L 88-96
21	01/17/2026	@ Tennessee	W 80-78
22	01/03/2026	@ Alabama	L 74-89
23	01/31/2026	@ Arkansas	W 85-77
24	12/20/2025	St. John’s (CBS Sports Classic)	W 78-66
29	02/21/2026	@ Auburn
35	03/03/2026	@ Texas A&M

Quad 1B: 2-1

Home 16-30 | Neutral 26-50 | Away 41-75

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
21	02/07/2026	Tennessee
25	12/02/2025	North Carolina	L 64-67
30	12/13/2025	Indiana	W 72-60
57	01/14/2026	@ LSU	W 75-74

Quad 2: 1-1

Home: 31-75 | Neutral: 51-100 | Away: 76-135

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
36	02/17/2026	Georgia
39	01/21/2026	Texas	W 85-80
70	01/07/2026	Missouri	L 68-73
105	02/24/2026	@ South Carolina

Quad 3: 3-0

Home: 76-160 | Neutral: 101-200 | Away: 136-240

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
79	01/24/2026	Ole Miss	W 72-63
80	02/04/2026	Oklahoma
94	01/10/2026	Mississippi State	W 92-68
160	11/07/2025	Valparaiso	W 107-59

Quad 4: 7-0

Home: 161-362 | Neutral: 201-362 | Away: 241-362

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
239	11/04/2025	Nicholls	W 77-51
296	12/23/2025	Bellarmine	W 99-85
316	11/14/2025	Eastern Ill.	W 99-53
330	11/26/2025	Tennessee Tech	W 104-54
338	11/21/2025	Loyola Maryland	W 88-46
340	12/09/2025	N.C. Central	W 103-67

Team Sheet Notes

— Cusp Watch: As mentioned, the win over Indiana is back in Quad 1 for now. The home wins over Georgia (NET 36) and Texas (NET 39) are at the top of Quad 2 and could also move up if the Bulldogs and Longhorns finish strong.

On the flip side, the loss to Missouri (NET 70) could move back to Quad 3 if the Tigers fall below No. 75 in the NET. Oklahoma (NET 80) is so bad that Wednesday’s game is now Quad 3. Gotta win that one. Quad 3 also features the win over Valparaiso, which moved up from Quad 4. Look at you, Beacons.

— As mentioned, only eight teams have more Quad 1 wins than Kentucky (5): Duke (9), Arizona (9), Michigan (8), Illinois (7), Purdue (6), Michigan State (6), and Nebraska (6). That said, only one of those teams (Michigan) has a loss outside of Quad 1. Kentucky’s loss to Missouri is in Quad 2. The Cats have three games outside Quad 1 left: Georgia, at South Carolina, and Oklahoma. Gotta win those.

— Other teams with five Quad 1 wins: Tennessee, Kansas, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Houston, Iowa State, and UConn. I haven’t gone through each team’s schedule, but I doubt many schools have six more Quad 1 games left in the regular season.

— Kentucky has the third-hardest schedule left in the country, according to ESPN’s BPI. Only Oklahoma and Vanderbilt’s are tougher.

— KenPom still projects Kentucky to finish 19-12, 10-8 in SEC play. That means four more wins. KenPom thinks they’ll come vs. Oklahoma and Tennessee this week, vs. Georgia on Feb. 17, and at South Carolina on Feb. 24. If you plug those results into BartTorvik’s Teamcast, Kentucky would be a No. 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

The Road Ahead

If you look at KenPom’s projections, Kentucky is likely to win all of its games outside Quad 1 (Oklahoma, Georgia, at South Carolina). Four of the nine remaining games are toss-ups (36-64% chance of winning), with just the road games at Florida and Auburn considered unlikely.

I said this last week, but take care of the likely column, win over half your toss-ups, and cross your fingers for anything else.

Likely (≥65%)	Toss-Ups (36%–64%)	Unlikely (≤35%)
Feb 4 – vs. Oklahoma (Home, Quad 3, 81%)	Feb 7 – vs. Tennessee (Home, Quad 1, 54%)	Feb 14 – @ Florida (Away, Quad 1, 19%)
Feb 17 – vs. Georgia (Home, Quad 2, 69%)	Feb 28 – vs. Vanderbilt (Home, Quad 1, 46%)	Feb 21 – @ Auburn (Away, Quad 1, 35%)
Feb 24 – @ South Carolina (Away, Quad 2, 68%)	Mar 3 – @ Texas A&M (Away, Quad 1, 38%)
	Mar 7 – vs. Florida (Home, Quad 1, 38%)

Here’s a chronological view:

Date	Opponent	NET Ranking	Quad	KenPom Projections (2/2)
02/04/2026	Oklahoma	80	Quad 3	W, 81-71 (81%)
02/07/2026	Tennessee	21	Quad 1B	W, 72-71 (54%)
02/14/2026	@ Florida	12	Quad 1A	L, 81-71 (19%)
02/17/2026	Georgia	36	Quad 2	W, 84-78 (69%)
02/21/2026	@ Auburn	29	Quad 1A	L, 80-75 (35%)
02/24/2026	@ South Carolina	105	Quad 2	W, 76-70 (68%)
02/28/2026	Vanderbilt	13	Quad 1A	L, 78-77 (46%)
03/03/2026	@ Texas A&M	35	Quad 1A	L, 80-76 (38%)
03/07/2026	Florida	12	Quad 1A	L, 78-74 (38%)