Kentucky's NCAA Tournament Resume is trending up -- but Quad 1 battles loom

Kentucky is now in its bye week, riding high after the big win over Tennessee. With seven games left in the regular season, the Cats are in second place in the SEC standings, and their NCAA Tournament resume is looking good, with plenty of room for improvement. Even just a few weeks ago, we were worried about making the tournament; now, we’re trying to figure out how the Cats can get a better seed.

The comeback didn’t really register in the NET Rankings. Kentucky is still No. 28 in the NET, the same as last Monday. The win over Oklahoma moved from Quad 3 to the bottom of Quad 2 after the Sooners upset Vanderbilt in Nashville on Saturday. The victory over Tennessee is in Quad 1B. Kentucky’s Quad 1 record is 5-6, with three games at the top of Quad 2 that could move up. The loss to Missouri at home is firmly in Quad 2, an annoying blemish on the resume.

Five of Kentucky’s seven remaining games are Quad 1, with the home game vs. Georgia and the road game at South Carolina in Quad 2; in fact, all five are Quad 1A, meaning they’re the most valuable in the eyes of the Selection Committee. Right now, the Cats have the same number of Quad 1 wins (five) as Arkansas, North Carolina, Iowa State, UConn, and Nebraska. From the SEC, only Alabama, Florida, and Vanderbilt have more, all with six. Duke leads the nation in Quad 1 wins, with ten.

As we do every Monday, let’s examine Kentucky’s team sheet. Believe it or not, there are just 34 days until Selection Sunday.

• Quad 1: 5-6 (Games Remaining: 5)
  • Quad 1A: 3-5
  • Quad 1B: 2-1
• Quad 2: 3-1 (Games Remaining: 2)
• Quad 3: 2-0 (Games Remaining: 0)
• Quad 4: 7-0 (Games Remaining: 0)

Quad 1: 5-6

Quad 1A: 3-5

Home 1-15 | Neutral 1-25 | Away 1-40

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
7	12/05/2025	Gonzaga (Nashville)	L 59-94
9	02/14/2026	@ Florida
9	03/07/2026	Florida
12	11/18/2025	Michigan State (Champions Classic)	L 66-83
14	01/27/2026	@ Vanderbilt	L 55-80
14	02/28/2026	Vanderbilt
17	11/11/2025	@ Louisville	L 88-96
21	01/17/2026	@ Tennessee	W 80-78
22	12/20/2025	St. John’s (CBS Sports Classic)	W 78-66
23	01/03/2026	@ Alabama	L 74-89
26	01/31/2026	@ Arkansas	W 85-77
31	02/21/2026	@ Auburn
39	03/03/2026	@ Texas A&M

Quad 1B: 2-1

Home 16-30 | Neutral 26-50 | Away 41-75

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
21	02/07/2026	Tennessee	W 74-71
24	12/02/2025	North Carolina	L 64-67
58	01/14/2026	@ LSU	W 75-74

Quad 2: 3-1

Home: 31-75 | Neutral: 51-100 | Away: 76-135

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
33	12/13/2025	Indiana	W 72-60
35	02/17/2026	Georgia
36	01/21/2026	Texas	W 85-80
62	01/07/2026	Missouri	L 68-73
74	02/04/2026	Oklahoma	W 94-78
113	02/24/2026	@ South Carolina

Quad 3: 2-0

Home: 76-160 | Neutral: 101-200 | Away: 136-240

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
83	01/24/2026	Ole Miss	W 72-63
96	01/10/2026	Mississippi St.	W 92-68

Quad 4: 7-0

Home: 161-362 | Neutral: 201-362 | Away: 241-362

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
162	11/07/2025	Valparaiso	W 107-59
240	11/04/2025	Nicholls	W 77-51
277	12/23/2025	Bellarmine	W 99-85
310	11/14/2025	Eastern Illinois	W 99-53
317	11/26/2025	Tennessee Tech	W 104-54
334	11/21/2025	Loyola Maryland	W 88-46
339	12/09/2025	N.C. Central	W 103-67

Team Sheet Notes

— Cusp Watch: The win over Indiana was in Quad 1 last week, but it is back down to Quad 2 after the Hoosiers lost at USC. They’re No. 33 in the NET. If they can get into the top 30, the win will move back to Quad 1. The same goes for Kentucky’s upcoming game vs. Georgia, which is No. 35 in the NET, and the win over Texas, No. 36 in the NET. Go Hoosiers, Bulldogs, and Longhorns.

— As mentioned, Kentucky has five Quad 1A games left. So, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the Cats’ remaining schedule is one of the toughest in the country, No. 4 according to ESPN’s BPI. Arizona is the toughest, followed by Purdue and Vanderbilt.

— Kentucky has won eight of its last nine games, but the analytics forecast a rough stretch ahead. KenPom projects Kentucky to win just two more games, vs. Georgia at home and South Carolina on the road. That means losing all five Quad 1 games and finishing with a 20-11 record, 11-7 in SEC play. BartTorvik agrees. If you plug those results into BartTorvik’s Teamcast, Kentucky would be a No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Let’s hope the computers are wrong.

The Road Ahead

Kentucky is off until Saturday’s game at Florida. That’s the toughest one left on the schedule, according to KenPom, which gives the Cats just an 18% chance to win. The Quad 2 games vs. Georgia and South Carolina are safely in the “Likely” to win column, leaving the rest in the “Toss Up” column (36% to 64% chance of victory). Two of those are at home (Vanderbilt, Florida) and two on the road (at Texas A&M and Auburn). Splitting those would be big.

Likely (≥65%)	Toss-Ups (36%–64%)	Unlikely (≤35%)
Feb 17 – vs. Georgia (Home, Quad 2, 67%)	Feb 28 – vs. Vanderbilt (Home, Quad 1A, 49%)	Feb 14 – @ Florida (Away, Quad 1A, 18%)
Feb 24 – @ South Carolina (Away, Quad 2, 72%)	Mar 3 – @ Texas A&M (Away, Quad 1A, 42%)
	Feb 21 – @ Auburn (Away, Quad 1A, 36%)
	Mar 7 – vs. Florida (Home, Quad 1A, 36%)

Here is a more chronological look.

Date	Opponent	NET Ranking	Quad	KenPom Projections (Feb. 9)
02/14/2026	@ Florida	9	Quad 1A	L, 81-71 (18%)
02/17/2026	Georgia	35	Quad 2	W, 83-79 (67%)
02/21/2026	@ Auburn	31	Quad 1A	L, 80-76 (36%)
02/24/2026	@ South Carolina	113	Quad 2	W, 76-70 (72%)
02/28/2026	Vanderbilt	14	Quad 1A	L, 79-78 (49%)
03/03/2026	@ Texas A&M	39	Quad 1A	L, 80-77 (42%)
03/07/2026	Florida	9	Quad 1A	L, 78-74 (36%)

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