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Kentucky opens as MASSIVE underdog at Florida…

Jack PIlgrimby: Jack Pilgrim02/13/26

Well, it’s time to shock the world, I suppose. If Kentucky is going to beat Florida in Gainesville on Saturday, the Wildcats are going to have to do it as massive underdogs.

The oddsmakers have spoken, and the Gators have opened as double-digit favorites — 11.5 points, to be specific. The over/under has been set at 152.5 points with a favorable moneyline bet for believers, UK sitting at +525 compared to -750 for UF.

That aligns with the computers, which unanimously like the Gators — and by a lot — starting with KenPom giving the Cats just a 17 percent chance to pull off the upset and a projected score of 81-70. Elsewhere, Bart Torvik really doesn’t like Kentucky in the O-Dome, giving Mark Pope’s team just a 10 percent shot to win with a projected score of 83-68. At least ESPN’s Matchup Predictor isn’t totally counting out UK with the road team given a 20.5 percent chance.

None of it is great, though.

“Florida presents a lot of issues,” Pope said Thursday. “I don’t know if they’re the biggest frontline in the country, but they’re definitely the most experienced and tenured and have the most winning under their belts. They know exactly who they are. They know exactly how they do this. They’re a dominant force.

“What they’ve done the last several weeks in league has been really impressive, just the margin of victory. They’re really dominating opponents, and they do it with this frontline. … This frontline is deep, big and physically imposing, so it’s a challenge for everybody. It’s going to be a great challenge for us.”

No. 25 Kentucky at No. 14 Florida: How to Watch, Listen

  • Tipoff: Saturday, 3 p.m. ET
  • TV: ABC (Karl Ravech, Jimmy Dykes)
  • Local Radio: UK Sports Network (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
  • AM: 840 WHAS, 630 WLAP
  • FM: 98.1 WBUL
  • OnlineiHeart Radio

You can also follow along on the KSR LIVE BLOG, which will start a few hours before tipoff, and join the conversation on KSBoard.

Lock in for the 2025 Kentucky Basketball season with KSR Plus! We’re giving you behind-the-scenes intel you won’t find anywhere else. Join the most passionate online community in the BBN during Mark Pope’s second season.

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2026-03-07