SEC Tournament Projection: Kentucky takes hit with another home loss

Kentucky dropped a third game at Rupp Arena on Tuesday night. This was the second time in league play that UK lost a game as a home favorite. That is coming back to bite them in the SEC standings. The Wildcats are not eliminated from double-bye contention yet but they might be all out of wiggle room now. One could say that starting the SEC Tournament as the No. 6 seed or No. 7 seed are the most likely scenarios.

Florida continues to run away from everyone else. There is a big game on Wednesday night in Tuscaloosa between Alabama and Arkansas. Vanderbilt travels to Missouri in an important clash. Auburn will attempt to end a long four-game losing streak on the road against Mississippi State. There are some important midweek games still remaining on the schedule but it’s never too early to look at the standings.

Kentucky is not in danger of beginning the SEC Tournament on Wednesday — yet.

Current standings

This is where every team would be seeded if the SEC Tournament started today.

1. Florida (11-2)
2. Arkansas (9-3)
3. Vanderbilt (8-4)
4. Tennessee (8-4)
5. Alabama (8-4)
6. Kentucky (8-5)
7. Texas (8-5)
8. Missouri (7-5)
9. Texas A&M (7-5)
10. Georgia (6-7)
11. Auburn (5-7)
12. Mississippi State (4-8)
13. Oklahoma (3-9)
14. Ole Miss (3-9)
15. LSU (2-10)
16. South Carolina (2-10)

There are still five midweek games left to be played in the SEC on Wednesday. UK could be joined at 8-5 by Vanderbilt, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Alabama by the time the clock turns to Thursday. Odds are high that there will still be a logjam at spots 2-9 after tonight with just one game separating the entire group.

Kentucky has a path to a double-bye still but must get hot down the stretch. The Wildcats own tiebreakers over Arkansas, Tennessee, and Texas with a game remaining against Vanderbilt. UK loses tiebreakers to Alabama and Missouri. So they would have a numbers advantage if they can beat Vandy at home.

Anything from No. 2 to No. 10 feels possible heading into the weekend.

Projected SEC standings

Using KenPom‘s projections, this is what the SEC Tournament field would look like. I used some projected results to find tiebreaker winners.

1. Florida (15-3)
2. Arkansas (13-5)
3. Tennessee (12-6)
4. Vanderbilt (12-6)
5. Alabama (12-6)
6. Texas A&M (10-8)
7. Kentucky (10-8)
8. Texas (10-8)
9. Missouri (9-9)
10. Auburn (9-9)
11. Georgia (8-10)
12. Mississippi State (6-12)
13. Oklahoma (5-13)
14. Ole Miss (5-13)
15. LSU (4-14)
16. South Carolina (4-14)

Florida is expected to win the regular season SEC title for the first time since 2014. The projections are calling for the Gators to do this by multiple games. Getting to 13 wins likely will get a No. 2 seed. Getting to 12 wins will have youn in the mix for the 3-4-5 spots depending how tiebreakers play out. Sitting at 11 wins will put you in the No. 6 or No. 7 spot. Anything from 6-10 is possible with 10 wins.

Kentucky is currently projected to finish with a 10-8 conference record for the second consecutive season.

What is Kentucky’s window?

For forecasting purposes, these are the projected spreads for Kentucky’s remaining five games.

• Kentucky (+4) at Auburn
• Kentucky (-6) at South Carolina
• Vanderbilt at Kentucky (+2)
• Kentucky (+2) at Texas A&M
• Florida at Kentucky (+5)

UK will essentially play in five games expected to be decided by two possessions or less to close the year. That’s essentially five toss-up games. Going undefeated would get the Cats to the projected No. 2 seed. Going 4-1 would get the Cats on the double-bye line. Going 3-2 would get the Cats in the 6-7 range. Going 2-3 would put the Cats in the 6-10 window. Anything worse than that could have UK almost locked into playing on Wednesday at the SEC Tournament.

There are a lot of scenarios on the table. Kentucky’s floor lowered with a home loss to Georgia but there is still a path to climb up the standings due to the tiebreakers that UK currently owns.