What Kentucky can add to its NCAA Tournament Resume at the SEC Tournament

Kentucky had two big opportunities to improve its NCAA Tournament resume last week. The Cats failed to get either, losing at Texas A&M and to Florida on Senior Day. Sadly, barring a big run in Nashville, there’s not much Kentucky can add to its resume ahead of Selection Sunday.

Thursday’s game vs. LSU in the first round of the SEC Tournament is in Quad 2 on Kentucky’s team sheet. The Tigers are down to No. 77 in the NET Rankings, which moved the Cats’ win in Baton Rouge from Quad 1 to Quad 2. The Cats are now 5-10 in Quad 1. The only way they can improve that is by beating Missouri on Thursday, a Quad 2 game, to play Florida on Friday, a Quad 1 game. A win over the Gators, a projected No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, would give the Cats a boost heading into Selection Sunday.

For now, Kentucky is trending as a No. 7 seed. The Cats are the top No. 7 seed on Bracket Matrix. Joe Lunardi bumped them from a No. 6 to a No. 7 seed in his update on Sunday night. I doubt wins over LSU and/or Missouri would move the needle much; however, a loss in the first round of the SEC Tournament could give the committee reason to drop Kentucky to a No. 8 seed, which would mean potentially playing a No. 1 seed in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. You’ve gotta win on Wednesday.

Alas. Let’s do what we do each Monday this time of year and break down Kentucky’s team sheet.

• WAB: 3.16 (No. 28)
• Quad 1: 5-10
  • Quad 1A: 3-8
  • Quad 1B: 2-2
• Quad 2: 5-2
• Quad 3: 3-0
• Quad 4: 6-0

Quad 1: 5-10

Quad 1A: 3-8

Home 1-15 | Neutral 1-25 | Away 1-40

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
4	02/14/2026	@ Florida	L 83-92
4	03/07/2026	Florida	L 77-84
5	12/05/2025	Gonzaga (Nashville)	L 59-94
11	11/18/2025	Michigan State (Champions Classic)	L 66-83
14	11/11/2025	@ Louisville	L 88-96
16	01/27/2026	@ Vanderbilt	L 55-80
17	01/03/2026	@ Alabama	L 74-89
18	01/31/2026	@ Arkansas	W 85-77
21	01/17/2026	@ Tennessee	W 80-78
22	12/20/2025	St. John’s (CBS Sports Classic)	W 78-66
38	02/21/2026	@ Auburn	L 74-75

Quad 1B: 2-2

Home 16-30 | Neutral 26-50 | Away 41-75

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
16	02/28/2026	Vanderbilt	W 91-77
21	02/07/2026	Tennessee	W 74-71
23	12/02/2025	North Carolina	L 64-67
43	03/03/2026	@ Texas A&M	L 85-96

Quad 2: 5-2

Home: 31-75 | Neutral: 51-100 | Away: 76-135

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
31	02/17/2026	Georgia	L 78-86
37	12/13/2025	Indiana	W 72-60
41	01/21/2026	Texas	W 85-80
54	02/04/2026	Oklahoma	W 94-78
60	01/07/2026	Missouri	L 68-73
77	03/11/2026	LSU (SEC Tournament)
77	01/14/2026	@ LSU	W 75-74
107	02/24/2026	@ South Carolina	W 72-63

Quad 3: 3-0

Home: 76-160 | Neutral: 101-200 | Away: 136-240

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
92	01/24/2026	Ole Miss	W 72-63
110	01/10/2026	Mississippi St.	W 92-68
157	11/07/2025	Valparaiso	W 107-59

Quad 4: 6-0

Home: 161-362 | Neutral: 201-362 | Away: 241-362

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
246	11/04/2025	Nicholls	W 77-51
285	12/23/2025	Bellarmine	W 99-85
307	11/26/2025	Tennessee Tech	W 104-54
323	11/14/2025	Eastern Ill.	W 99-53
328	11/21/2025	Loyola Maryland	W 88-46
347	12/09/2025	N.C. Central	W 103-67

Team Sheet Notes

— Cusp Watch: As mentioned, LSU fell to No. 77 in the NET Rankings, which moved Kentucky’s win in Baton Rouge from Quad 1 to Quad 2. Georgia is No. 31 in the NET. If the Bulldogs move up just one spot, the loss to them in Rupp Arena will move from Quad 2 to Quad 1. Georgia plays the winner of Ole Miss and Texas on Thursday.

— Kentucky is No. 28 in the NET rankings, which is where the Cats have pretty much lived for over a month. Kentucky’s WAB, Wins Above Bubble, is 3.16, which also ranks No. 28. Again, firmly on that No. 7 seed with only a win over Florida or a loss to LSU moving the needle.

Here are all of Kentucky’s SEC Tournament scenarios played out in BartTorvik’s Teamcast. Obviously, these are just projections, but the Cats’ floor this week is a No. 8 seed and ceiling a No 5 seed.

• 1st Round – Lose to LSU: Top No. 8 seed
• 2nd Round – Beat LSU, lose to Missouri: Bottom No. 7 seed
• Quarterfinals – Beat LSU and Missouri, lose to Florida: Top No. 7 seed
• Semifinals – Beat LSU, Missouri, Florida, lose to Tennessee/Vandy: Bottom No. 6 seed
• Finals – Beat LSU, Missouri, Florida, Tennessee, lose to Alabama/Arkansas: No. 6 seed
• Win the SEC Tournament: No. 5 seed

Here is where each game would land on the team sheet. KenPom projects Kentucky to beat LSU by five, 79-74, giving the Cats a 69% chance of winning.

Date	Round	Opponent	Quad
03/11/2026	SEC Tournament 1st Round	LSU	Quad 2
03/12/2026	SEC Tournament 2nd Round	Missouri	Quad 2
03/13/2026	SEC Tournament Quarterfinals	Florida	Quad 1A
03/14/2026	SEC Tournament Semifinals	Vanderbilt/Tennessee/Auburn/Mississippi State	Quad 1A to Quad 3
03/15/2026	SEC Tournament Finals	Alabama/Arkansas/Texas A&M/Georgia/Texas/Oklahoma/South Carolina/Ole Miss	Quad 1A to Quad 3

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