Kentucky still ranks as one of the 'unluckiest' teams in CBB

As the old saying goes, “sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.” This season, Kentucky hasn’t been either one.

The website of college basketball statistician Ken Pomeroy, KenPom.com is a bastion of knowledge. He rates teams on factors like offensive/defensive efficiency, tempo, strength of schedule, and luck. Yes, luck.

Pomeroy calculates luck by comparing the team’s winning percentage by what their expected winning percentage is. The computer then does extra math to come up with a number based around 0. For example, if your team has “0” luck, it means that you win all the games you should and lose all of the games you shouldn’t. If your team has a positive number of luck, it means you win games you shouldn’t, etc.

When diving deeper, teams that are involved in a lot of close games, and lose, are found to be unlucky while teams that win those close games more often are found to be luckier. Sound familiar?

This season’s Kentucky Wildcats rank as the 15th “unluckiest team” in college basketball. Only Nebraska and Wake Forest rank higher on the scale among Power 5 schools.

As mentioned earlier, one of the biggest factors in this is record in “close games.” For example, Kentucky’s record in games decided by 5 points or less is 2-4. In each of those losses, they had chances to take the lead or had the lead in the closing minutes.

Does luck factor into team success? Not particularly. In fact, the highest-rated “lucky” school among KenPom’s traditional rating system top 25 is UCLA, who rates as the 65th luckiest team in the nation. This is, in a way, done on purpose by Pomeroy.

On his website, he says a team that rates highly in the luck category “will tend to be rated lower by his system than their record would suggest.”

Across the last decade, only one school won the national championship when ranked in the top 50 in “luck.” That school? The 2015 Duke Blue Devils. Yeah, I know.

So what does all of this mean? In ways, KenPom uses the luck factor to say that these teams are in a lot of close games and just aren’t pulling through in the end. When you combine that factor with bad losses you get unlucky teams and find yourself as to why Kentucky ranks as low as they do.