KSR Staff Predictions: Kentucky vs. Louisville

by: KSR11 hours ago

It’s almost that time. On Saturday at high noon, Kentucky vs. Louisville will face off in the 37th meeting of the Governor’s Cup. The Cats hold the 20-16 edge in the series, but lost last year’s game in Lexington 41-14. This year, Mark Stoops’ team is one win away from bowl eligibility; can they beat a struggling Louisville squad to get it?

The KSR crew is ready to weigh in.

Tyler Thompson

I’m not exactly feeling great about Kentucky after last week’s showing in Nashville. However, Louisville is not Vanderbilt, and the Cards certainly don’t have a Diego Pavia. Louisville has lost three straight and looked like it had given up in the 38-6 defeat at SMU. Add in a lengthy injury report for both sides, and this game will come down to who wants it more.

Kentucky’s still playing for bowl eligibility. Louisville has it, but the Cards’ College Football Playoff dreams were dashed earlier this month. Mark Stoops has a way of rallying his teams for this game, last year’s 41-14 shellacking in Kroger Field aside. The Cats are 6-5 vs. the Cards under Stoops, and have won the last four in Louisville. Stoops’ job is likely safe barring a Louisville beatdown; a big win on Saturday probably wouldn’t get his doubters back on the bandwagon, but it’s certainly better than the alternative to this blogger.

This Kentucky locker room has stuck together through some tough times this season. Cutter Boley will never take a chance to beat Louisville for granted. Give me the motivated Cats vs. the tired Cards on a cold and chippy afternoon.

Score: Kentucky 27, Louisville 20

Zack Geoghegan

The postseason is on the line for Kentucky. How much do they want it? Louisville is down bad coming into this game. The Cardinals could roll out multiple quarterbacks. Injuries have infiltrated their locker room (and apparently so have the bad vibes). But I won’t be betting on Louisville to just fold over and give up in the biggest rivalry game on either team’s schedule.

UL will still get up for this one — or at least the players healthy enough to take the field will. Expect Vince Marrow’s face to pop up on our TV screens at least once. But I feel a big performance from Seth McGowan coming. This game will come down to the final possession, with Cutter Boley finding Willie Rodriguez in the end zone for the go-ahead touchdown score as the ‘Cats gain bowl eligibility and send little brother into full-blown chaos.

Score: Kentucky 28, Louisville 27

Jack Pilgrim

Louisville was finally exposed as a total fraud in the back half of the regular season, losing three straight — including a 38-6 defeat most recently at SMU — with injuries destroying the Cardinals and the locker room lost. And while Mark Stoops still can’t beat teams with a pulse, as we saw last week in Nashville, he sure knows how to beat up on broken, hopeless programs. Fortunately for us, that’s all we’re asking for this weekend on the road!

Look, if UK can’t defeat a UofL team missing all three of its top running backs and star wide receiver while its starting quarterback is banged up (and not great in general), among other bumps and bruises across the board, it will be a complete failure on the Wildcats’ part. That’s not how I expect things to unfold, though, as they come out and throw the first punch and put their foot on the gas until the Cardinals quit rather early. It looks similar to the beating they put on us last season at Kroger Field, up 20-0 and as many as 34-7 before settling on a 41-14 final score.

It won’t be that ugly (or pretty, for us), but the Cardinals will not be competitive. Seth McGowan unleashes his inner Ray Davis and goes for a couple of scores and a buncha yards as Kentucky punches a ticket to the postseason.

Score: Kentucky 30, Louisville 13

Nick Roush

If it feels like deja vu all over again, it’s not from a previous Governor’s Cup battle. We could be watching a repeat performance of the Florida game.

The Gators had a bunch of offensive skill players sidelined by injury, and needed a turnover-prone quarterback to play hero ball. When Kentucky punched ’em in the mouth early, they were ready to give up. It led to a rout.

The start of this game can make it an enjoyable one for Big Blue Nation. If Kentucky can hit them in the mouth early and show signs of life offensively, a rivalry rout is in play. Louisville will bring pressure to create negative plays. If the Cats can handle it, watch out. If the Cards drag Kentucky into the mud, it could be a low-scoring slugfest.

Even though we haven’t seen it, this feels like the first road game where Cutter Boley looks like Kroger Field Cutter Boley. It’ll be a feel-good performance that builds offseason momentum for the program.

Score: Kentucky 31, Louisville 10

Adam Luckett

Louisville is reeling heading into this game with three consecutive losses and a long injury report on offense. Kentucky is coming off an embarrassing performance against Vanderbilt with a long injury on defense.

This very much feels like a bring your own juice game. The Cats have some clear advantages in this matchup.

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Louisville is not built to attack UK in the vertical passing game. This pro-style offense will likely try to attack the teeth of Kentucky’s defense. Offenses that have done that have struggled all year against the Wildcats. Kentucky’s away game offensive woes (13.5 points per game) are highly concerning facing a solid Louisville defense with a very good front.

This could be a rough and physical football game with some ugly offense. But Kentucky will be very comfortable playing in that type of game.

Kentucky smothers a short-handed Louisville offense and creates some short field opportunities for the offense. This is a slugfest early before UK pulls away in the second half to record a win in this rivarly series for the sixth time in seven years.

Score: Kentucky 28, Louisville 13

Jacob Polacheck

I predicted Kentucky to beat Louisville when the season started, and I’m not changing that now. Despite the loss to Vanderbilt, Kentucky has found a somewhat rhythm this season.

I’m expecting this game to be a breakout performance for Cutter Boley, going for four touchdowns. Louisville is coming into this game at a disadvantage, given the team’s current health. With a bowl game on the line, Kentucky comes in with plenty to play for. Seth McGowan should do his usual work while the offense cruises. Cats by eight.

Score: Kentucky 35, Louisville 27

Drew Franklin

Here we go again, the Cats getting points in the Governor’s Cup. Longtime KSR listeners know how generous the Governor’s Cup has been to my bank account, going back to the moneyline bet as a 26.5-point underdog against Lamar Jackson, through upsets in the streak that bought entire appliances in my home. I call my fridge the Governor’s Cup fridge, paid for by the 2022 game.

This year, I again believe that Kentucky is in a better spot in the rivalry game, and Las Vegas again made Louisville the betting favorite. Though the game is in Louisville, the Cards look like a mess after three straight losses, while Kentucky’s locker room has not folded under outside criticism or a rough start to the year. Mark Stoops’ team has more to play for this year, too. Bowl eligibility hinges on this game, Vince Marrow is on the other sideline after his heel turn over the summer, and the Cup spent five straight years in Kentucky until Louisville stole it away last year.

Motivation means as much as talent this time of year, and Kentucky has all of it. The Cats win a fifth straight in Louisville against a dejected Louisville team and fan base.

Score: Kentucky 31, Louisville 23

Country Boy’s Prediction

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