How Kentucky Beats Missouri

Here we go again. After a poor outing against the nation’s top-ranked team, Saturday’s game against Missouri is another must-win scenario for the Kentucky Wildcats. Kentucky sits at an unexpected 5-3 record with Georgia looming. Most projected the Cats-Dawgs matchup to be a contest that could potentially decide the fate of the SEC East. That’s come and gone. Now, Mark Stoops’ team is battling to remain relevant and to become bowl eligible. 

This game is simple. Win and feel good about going into the Georgia game. Lose, and things could get a little dicey in Lexington. Let’s get into this. 

OFFENSE

The Cats looked as if they’d figured out the offense with most of its weapons on hand in the second half against Mississippi State. That all folded in what can be perceived as an all-systems offensive failure against Tennessee. It doesn’t get easier on Saturday in Columbia. Mizzou sports the most improved defense in all of college football. The Tigers are creating a bunch of havoc and are statistically the best defense that the Cats have faced so far in 2022. This presents a serious challenge to Rich Scangarello. 

Missouri is allowing just 310 total yards of offense per game. That’s good enough to be ranked third in the SEC. The Tigers are also first in the conference with 60 tackles for loss. Kentucky is ranked 13th in the league after allowing 54 TFLs. This doesn’t bode well for the Cats who have suffered from playing behind the chains in early down situations. Another strength for the host team is that it’s allowing just 30% of touchdowns in the Red Zone. Kentucky has mightily struggled in this area after punching the football into the end zone on 56% of their trips inside the 20-yard line. 

Based on the numbers, the Cats could be in trouble on the road. Additionally, Mizzou is giving up a mere 115 run yards per contest and 3.6 yards per carry. Saturday could be tough sledding for the Wildcat rush game. Here are the goals. 

Do Something Good

Kentucky did not run or pass the football well in their last outing. The Cats turned the football over on three occasions including once in the Red Zone. In other words; nothing, zero went right for Scangarello’s unit in Knoxville. The Cats’ flat performance against its rival a week ago has this analyst somewhat scarred. The offense’s 15% conversion ratio on third down was frightening especially with Mizzou’s 30% number up next. 

For Kentucky to win, the offense is going to have to do something good. Whether it’s run or pass, something has to be there to produce yards and points against a very stingy defense on Saturday. 

Avoid Third and Long

Four Mizzou defenders combine for 33 tackles for loss: WLB Ty’Ron Hopper (11), STAR Martez Manuel (7), DE DJ Coleman (5.5), and DE Isaiah McGuire (9.5). For comparison purposes, Kentucky has recorded 32 TFLs as a team in 2022. This number is alarming given that Coleman and McGuire are defensive ends which will require Kentucky’s offensive tackles to either play much better or have support via chips and angle blocks by TEs and or RBs. 

The Tigers like to create havoc on early downs to force opponents into certain pass downs and then really turn up the pressure. UK must be positive on first and second downs. UK can’t give up more than 4 TFL’s and 2 QB sacks. Those numbers are high, but Kentucky is last or near last in both categories in the SEC. 

Score

Kentucky is averaging 17-points per game against Power-5 competition. That’s not good enough and won’t be good enough to win on Saturday. Somehow, someway, the Cats have to find the end zone. The goal here is 27. 

DEFENSE

I hate to keep going back to the Tennessee game but I must in order to paint the picture of this Kentucky team. I’m not sure how to evaluate the Cats’ defense since the offense and special teams gave the Vols five drives that started in Wildcat territory. 

Missouri is not an offensive juggernaut like Tennessee. In fact, the Tigers are similar to Kentucky in many ways. Both average 24 points per contest. The Tigers actually gain ten more total yards than the Cats per outing. Regardless, Mizzou is a tough, physical football team that won’t wow the viewing audience. But, they’ve been competitive in losses and did just enough in wins. Let’s get into objectives. 

Stuff the Run and Win

Mizzou isn’t dynamic offensively. So, take one aspect and slow it down to force the other to win the game. The Tigers have two running backs that have exceeded 350 yards on the season. Cody Schrader and Nathanial Peat both average right at 55 yards per contest. The drive extender is quarterback Brady Cook who has 78 attempts and 215 yards for the season. The Cats have to keep the Tigers’ QB in check, especially on third down. Holding the Tigers to 120 yards on the ground is the magic number. Missouri is averaging 154. 

Force Two Turnovers

Finally, Kentucky faces an opponent that is in the same Turnover Margin ballpark. The Tigers are -2 on the season. Stealing a possession by forcing 2 turnovers would be a winning formula. QB Brady Cook has thrown eight touchdowns and seven interceptions. This feels like a game that could lead to picks and fumble recoveries. 

Stand Up on Conversion Downs

Again, Mizzou has offensive struggles including a 41% ratio on third down. Most remember the Cats’ last trip to Columbia when the Tigers converted a bunch of 3^rd and 4^th downs to win the game. That cannot repeat if Kentucky is to leave Columbia with a win.

SPECIAL TEAMS 

Ugh. Two-and-a-half catastrophic errors in the third phase led to the beatdown in Knoxville. This absolutely cannot happen on Saturday. Games like this that feature two struggling offenses often come down to field goals. The Tigers have the advantage in that department. Here’s what Kentucky has to do to win the 3^rd phase. 

Snap, Hold, Kick

This simple football operation has turned into a nightmare scenario on far too many occasions in 2022. See above. The kicking team will be counted on to potentially win the game. There must be vast improvements here. 

Cover 

Missouri true freshman Luther Burden is a dynamic returner. He’s housed one return and is averaging 18 yards per try. Kentucky has to punt the football much better to flip field position and cover with precision. 

What Does All This Mean? 

5-3 isn’t where the Cats were projected at this juncture in the season. A disappointing loss to Ole Miss was followed by an infuriating defeat to South Carolina. Those two frustrations were compounded by a disturbing 44-6 clubbing by Tennessee. The season is alive but could die a little if Kentucky throws out another clunker against Missouri. 

Kentucky appears to be the better team but I’m hesitant to use those words after declaring such in games the Cats lost. A noon kickoff in an uninspiring environment has sleepy written all over it. Mizzou is a team that can win with an explosive defense and a routine offense supported by up-and-down special teams. The Cats will need their most complimentary performance of the 2022 season in order to get a W. We’ll see.