Kentucky vs. North Carolina: Preview, Odds & How to Watch

It’s fun to beat lesser competition by a hundred and watch walk-ons hit daggers at the end of regulation, but we all know last week was just about passing the time around the Thanksgiving holiday to get us to December. The Wildcats even admitted they’ve had this one circled on the calendar ever since the Michigan State loss in New York City with the bad taste of Louisville still in their mouths. At some point, this Kentucky team needs to win a game that matters, and the next opportunity comes against No. 16 North Carolina inside Rupp Arena, hosting Hubert Davis and the Tar Heels in the ACC/SEC Challenge.

UNC enters the matchup with a similar feeling after taking essentially the same loss to the same opponent — the Spartans handing over a double-digit smackdown last week.

Who will come out on top in a miniature must-win for the Cats? KSR has everything you need to know about tonight’s matchup.

How to Watch, Listen

Dick Vitale will be back in Rupp Arena tonight, calling the game alongside Dave O’Brien and Jay Williams for ESPN.

• Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN (Dave O’Brien, Jay Williams, Dick Vitale)
• Local Radio: UK Sports Network (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• AM: 840 WHAS, 630 WLAP
• FM: 98.1 WBUL
• Online: iHeart Radio
• Sirius XM: 106 or 191

You can also follow along on the KSR LIVE BLOG, which will start a few hours before tipoff, and join the conversation on KSBoard.

Lock in for the 2025 Kentucky Basketball season with KSR Plus! We’re giving you behind-the-scenes intel you won’t find anywhere else. Join the most vibrant online community in the BBN during Mark Pope’s second season.

Season Rewind

Kentucky: KenPom 11

• 11/4: 77-51 W vs. Nicholls
• 11/7: 107-59 W vs. Valparaiso
• 11/11: 96-88 L at No. 12 Louisville
• 11/14: 99-53 W vs. Eastern Illinois
• 11/18: 83-66 L vs. Michigan State
• 11/21: 88-46 W vs. Loyola (Md.)
• 11/26: 104-54 W vs. Tennessee Tech

North Carolina: KenPom 31

• 11/3: 94-54 W vs. Central Arkansas
• 11/7: 87-74 W vs. Kansas
• 11/11: 89-74 W vs. Radford
• 11/14: 97-53 W vs. North Carolina Central
• 11/18: 73-61 W vs. Navy
• 11/25: 85-70 W vs. St. Bonaventure
• 11/27: 74-58 L vs. Michigan State

Series History

Kentucky and North Carolina have met 43 times with the Tar Heels leading the overall series 25-18 — although the Wildcats hold an 8-6 lead in Lexington and have won the last two matchups outright.

Mark Pope has never faced off against UNC, while Hubert Davis is 0-2 in his first five seasons in Chapel Hill. This is the first non-neutral site matchup between the two teams since 2014.

They last faced off in the CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta back in 2023 with the Wildcats pulling off the 87-83 victory. Rob Dillingham led the way with 17 points, followed by DJ Wagner with 17, Aaron Bradshaw with 12 and Reed Sheppard with 11.

Kentucky vs. North Carolina Odds

Despite being ranked behind the No. 16 Tar Heels in the latest AP Poll at No. 18 overall, the Wildcats are still firm favorites to earn their first big-time victory of the year, our friends at BetMGM giving the Cats an 8.5-point edge inside Rupp Arena.

The point total has been set at 159.5 with Kentucky earning a projected score of 84.5 compared to 75.5 for North Carolina.

The analytics also favor the home team, KenPom giving Kentucky an 80 percent chance to pull off the win with a projected score of 84-75. Bart Torvik also likes the Cats with a 70 percent shot to earn the victory and a projected score of 81-75. ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives UK an 86.2 percent chance to win.

Kentucky Potential Starters

#1 – Denzel Aberdeen
6-5 – 195 – GUARD – SENIOR
14.0 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 3.4 APG

#5 – Collin Chandler
6-5 – 205 – GUARD – SOPHOMORE
11.7 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.9 APG

#00 – Otega Oweh
6-4 – 215 – GUARD – SENIOR
13.0 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.3 APG

#3 – Kam Williams
6-8 – 205 – GUARD – SOPHOMORE
5.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.4 APG

#24 – Malachi Moreno
7-0 – 250 – CENTER – FRESHMAN
10.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 2.0 APG

North Carolina Potential Starters

#0 – Kyan Evans
6-4 – 195 – GUARD – JUNIOR
7.9 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 4.4 APG

#44 – Luka Bogavac
6-6 – 215 – GUARD – JUNIOR
12.0 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 3.4 APG

#8 – Caleb Wilson
6-0 – 185 – GUARD – FRESHMAN
19.9 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 2.1 APG

#15 – Jarin Stevenson
6-10 – 215 – FORWARD – JUNIOR
7.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 0.7 APG

#13 – Henri Veesaar
7-0 – 225 – CENTER – REDSHIRT JUNIOR
15.9 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 1.7 APG

Statistical Comparison

(via Kentucky’s game notes)

Fun stats from UK’s game notes:

• Three times this season, Kentucky has had nine different players score at least six points in the same game. Between 2004-05 and 2024-25, that only happened three times. UK has had seven different scoring leaders or co-leaders in seven games.
• In wins, Kentucky has held all five of its opponents to 60 points or fewer. Overall, the Cats are limiting opponents to 35.8 percent overall and 27.6 percent from three. They are also pulling down 83.9 percent of opponents’ misses with a +14.4 rebounding margin.
• Collin Chandler has hit a team-high 20 3-pointers while shooting 48.8 percent from deep. Among power conference players with at least 20 makes, he’s tied for the seventh-best 3-point field goal percentage.
• In addition to Jayden Quaintance missing each of the first seven games, UK has been without Jaland Lowe (five games), Mo Dioubate (two games) and Trent Noah (one game) this season.

Pregame Storylines

JALAND LOWE AND MO DIOUBATE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PLAY

There was hope that holding out Lowe and Dioubate for a couple of weeks would give them enough time to get ready for the big-name opponents to open December, starting tonight against North Carolina. That is not expected to be the case, Pope announcing on Monday during his call-in radio show that both players would likely miss the ACC/SEC Challenge matchup at Rupp.

“Those guys are coming along. They’re doing the best they can,” he said. “I’m not sure that they’re going to be available tomorrow, but they’re making progress. We can’t wait till they get back.”

Denzel Aberdeen has been starting in Lowe’s place while Kam Williams has stepped in for Dioubate with Malachi Moreno joining him in the frontcourt for the new-look starting lineup.

SLOWING DOWN CALEB WILSON

Priorities A, B and C for Kentucky tonight will be figuring out how to keep the blue-chip freshman and former Wildcat recruiting target from putting up video game numbers — especially with Dioubate, the defensive stopper you brought in for matchups like this, not on the floor.

Wilson stands 6’10”, 215 pounds and averages 19.9 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1.7 SPG and 1.3 BPG as truly one of the best all-around talents in college basketball. He’s scoring 1.185 points per possession on the offensive end while allowing just 0.763 on the other, grading out as very good or excellent in every major category, according to Synergy Sports. In a class of elite freshmen taking over the sport, he’s among the very best.

“Caleb Wilson, he’s been a problem for a lot of teams that they play,” Collin Chandler said. “And so we’re ready for him, and what he brings. He brings a lot.”

SETH TRIMBLE IS OUT FOR UNC

Trimble, North Carolina’s senior guard and a team leader, injured himself in a weightlifting accident that saw him break a bone in his left forearm. It’s not a long-term issue extending too far into the season, but it is expected to keep him off the floor in Lexington.

Prior to injury, Trimble was the team’s third-leading scorer and an all-around talent, averaging 14.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.0 steals in 30.0 minutes per game in two contests.

TIME TO WIN ONE

Kentucky has destroyed every no-name opponent this season, beating Nicholls by 26, Valpo by 48, Eastern Illinois by 46, Loyola (Md.) by 42 and Tennessee Tech by 50. None of them have been close and the Wildcats have looked exactly like the preseason contender everyone thought they’d be. Against Louisville and Michigan State? Total no-shows, losing 96-88 to the Cards in a game they fell behind by 20, followed by another 83-66 loss to the Spartans with Tom Izzo’s group controlling things from the 12-minute mark of the first half the rest of the way.

Fans don’t care about the cupcake wins, they’re restless for a big victory. It’s not a must-win, necessarily, but things could get really ugly in Lexington if they don’t pull this one off.

Join The Discussion on KSBoard

Want to interact with the KSR crew during the game? Consider joining the conversation on KSBoard, where we’ll be sharing live updates as your eyes and ears inside Rupp Arena while also answering questions and providing real-time analysis (and probably complaining about the officiating).

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Rapid Reaction on the KSR YouTube Channel

Miss the game? KSR’s got you covered with a Rapid Reaction outside of Rupp Arena immediately after the game, live on the KSR YouTube Channel. We’ll also have wall-to-wall postgame coverage on the website, including highlights, comments from Mark Pope and the players, stats, and takeaways.

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