KSR Staff Predictions: Kentucky vs. Texas

by: KSR01/21/26

Don’t let these Kentucky Wildcats get hot! After a 9-6 start in Mark Pope‘s second season in Lexington, they’ve rattled off back-to-back-to-back double-digit comeback victories to build some real momentum going into this two-game homestand. Can they keep it up with Sean Miller’s new-look Texas Longhorns coming to town?

The KSR crew shares its Parlour Pizza pregame predictions before tip-off tonight inside Rupp Arena, scheduled for 7 p.m. ET on SEC Network.

Drew Franklin

Kentucky is hot right now, bringing home two miraculous come-from-behind wins from the two-game road trip to LSU and Tennessee. I still have major concerns about the team overall, but they’ve come back from the dead twice, so there’s no quit in these Wildcats.

That said, I still worry about every game. There isn’t a game on the schedule that I know is a win. Tonight, Texas comes to town, fresh off a home loss to rival Texas A&M. But before that, the Longhorns knocked off Alabama in Tuscaloosa (where the Wildcats lost by 15), then beat undefeated Vanderbilt in Nashville.

Texas isn’t afraid of big games. This will be a fight, and it’ll take more than 20 minutes of good basketball from Kentucky to hang on. I think they put it together and win a close one, keeping the SEC win streak intact for another game.

Score: Kentucky 77, Texas 73

Tyler Thompson

I feel better about this Kentucky team after two tough, comeback wins on the road; however, I’ll really feel better if I see them take care of business at home against a good Texas team.

The Longhorns have taken down a pair of top 15 teams, Alabama and Vanderbilt, so far in SEC play. Sean Miller’s squad averages 86.3 points per game and ranks No. 18 in offensive efficiency. Four of their starters are averaging in double figures, including Tramon Mark, who had 26 in Texas’ win over Kentucky in Austin last year. He’ll be a big test for Kentucky’s new backcourt. The frontcourt will be too, with Dailyn Swain and Matas Vokietaitis both averaging over 15 points per game.

Texas leads the country in free-throw attempts per game (28.6) and is third in free throws made (20.9). Kentucky needs to play physical defense without sending the Longhorns to the line too often. Texas is a better offensive team than Tennessee, LSU, or Mississippi State, so the Cats may not be able to afford another slow start or big first-half deficit. Watching them claw back from those is fun, but it would be nice not to have to worry about it on a Wednesday night at home, a game you really don’t need to drop with the resume finally trending up.

Like Drew, I still worry about Kentucky in every game — and part of me thinks tonight could be a jarring crash back to Earth after two big wins — but I think at home, the Cats will get it done.

Score: Kentucky 79, Texas 75

Nick Roush

Predicting what this Kentucky basketball team will do is a fool’s errand. They’re all over the freaking place. Last week featured a tale of two halves, twice. Otega Oweh had been the steadiest of Eddies in the cast of characters, but even he wasn’t at his best in Knoxville as his 20-point streak came to an end.

Denzel Aberdeen was the greatest revelation over the two comeback wins. I’m not confident ahead of most Kentucky games, but if he continues to play at this level, particularly as a distributor, I’m significantly more optimistic about this team’s postseason potential.

Kam Williams was a no-show last week. He’s due to light up the Horns tonight in what will surely be a stretch until the final horn sounds.

Score: Kentucky 75, Texas 72

Jacob Polacheck

I guess if I want to make a very chalky prediction, I’ll say Kentucky goes down 15 in the first half and then makes a great second-half comeback to win by three. That’s probably too predictable.

Instead, I’m predicting that Kentucky plays a complete game on Wednesday and wins by 10. This game is a true test on if UK can build off its recent success, and finally play a team well from start to finish. Malachi Moreno is my pick for game MVP with a double-double and two blocks. With Jayden Quaintance and Jaland Lowe both out, Kentucky is starting to figure out what works best without either on the court. I’m only expecting this team to get better with reps.

Score: Kentucky 80, Texas 70

Zack Geoghegan

Kentucky has not been a foul-prone team this season, but that will be tested tonight. Seven different Longhorns shoot more than two free throws per game, led by a massive 8.8 attempts per game from seven-footer Matas Vokietaitis. Texas lives at the stripe and knocks down a respectable amount of those freebies. Keeping the Longhorns off the line will be a huge priority for Mark Pope’s crew.

I have no idea if Kentucky will come out ready to play in the first half of this game — no one does! If they do, it’ll be tough to pick against the ‘Cats. But as Tyler mentioned above, having to overcome a double-digit hole against a team that can score the ball efficiently isn’t a good comeback recipe. At the same time, we can’t say for sure which Texas team will show up. The Longhorns have those back-to-back wins over Alabama and Vanderbilt, but also have recent losses to Mississippi State and Texas A&M. When the threes aren’t falling for UT, they’re vulnerable against any opponent.

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The Wildcats’ vibes are high going into this one. The Rupp Arena crowd will be behind them. If Kentucky can hold Texas to 25 or fewer free-throw attempts (which has only happened for the Longhorns six times this season), I’ll feel good about their chances.

Score: Kentucky 80, Texas 78

Adam Luckett

Kentucky created momentum seemingly out of nowhere last week with a pair of come-from-behind victories on the road. The Cats now find themselves in the heat of the SEC race with 13 games to play. Now Mark Pope’s squad must take care of business at Rupp Arena this week.

Wednesday night will be a challenge.

In year one under Sean Miller, Texas leads college basketball in free throw rate thanks mostly to center Matas Vokietaitis. The Florida Atlantic transfer is averaging 9.2 free throw attempts per game. The Horns have a top-20 offense due to their ability to get to the charity stripe. Texas will be going against a Kentucky defense that is not terrific at guarding without fouling. However, the Horns have one of the worst defenses in the SEC, and rank No. 252 nationally in three-point field goal percentage allowed. That is good news for a streaking Kentucky team that is starting to create consistent open spot-up looks from deep.

Kentucky’s defense has been an issue since the win over St. John’s. Expect the defense to remain an issue against a good Texas offense. This game plays out similar to recent meetings. The Horns jump out to an early lead. Kentucky comes storming back with a huge second half. This one will be decided after the final media timeout.

Kentucky gets enough shotmaking and creates some big live ball turnovers to secure another conference victory.

Score: Kentucky 84, Texas 81

Jack Pilgrim

Texas is a fascinating team, one with seven early losses and a 2-3 start in league play — but a tournament resume thanks to some really good wins. The Longhorns have top-30 NET wins vs. NC State, at Alabama and vs. Vanderbilt, but their issue is that they’re 0-3 in Quad 2 and Quad 3 games vs. Arizona State, Mississippi State and Texas A&M. They’ve been all over the place this season so you don’t really know what you’re going to get from Sean Miller’s group inside Rupp Arena on Wednesday.

You can feel pretty good about them getting to the line, though, ranked No. 1 in free-throw rate (No. 2 in attempts and No. 4 in makes), No. 18 in offensive efficiency and No. 15 in offensive rebound rate, No. 23 in rebounding average and No. 26 in scoring offense. Dailyn Swain is the star at 15.7 points, 7.2 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.7 steals per contest, but Matas Vokietaitis (15.2 PPG, 6.4 RPG) is also a hoss and Tramon Mark (13.4 PPG, 3.2 RPG) put 26 points on the Cats in Austin last year. Don’t lose Jordan Pope on the perimeter, either, because he’ll make you pay (13.2 PPG, 37% 3PT on 6.8 3PA).

All of that to say it doesn’t matter, the Cats will be just fine. They’re reborn as a tough, gritty, win-at-all-costs group, ready to prove they can put together 40 minutes of complete basketball and win four straight in the SEC for the first time under Pope. Denzel Aberdeen is playing like one of the league’s best in this stretch and Otega Oweh is Otega Oweh. I’m picking Kam Williams as the third complementary standout this go-round to help lead Kentucky to a win, hitting big shots on one end and using his physical tools to slow down the Longhorns from deep on the other.

Score: Kentucky 83, Texas 76

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