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Preview: Kentucky's NCAA Tournament run could start with pitching showdown against Wake Forest

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Tom Walter Nick Mingione — (Photos courtesy of IMAGN and KSR+.)

The 2026 NCAA Tournament will officially get started on Friday afternoon. After long wait during the selection show on Memorial Day, Kentucky baseball will get the party started quickly this postseason. It’s nearly go time at the Morgantown regional.

The Bat Cats will hit Kendrick Family Ballpark for a practice on Thursday before opening the four-team pod with a tilt against Wake Forest. Nick Mingione‘s squad is attempting to advance to a third super regional in four years. Kentucky will need to take care of business in the first game to avoid falling in a big hole.

We could see a pitcher’s duel in this SEC vs. ACC contest.

Ace vs. Ace

We are still waiting on starting pitching announcements from both Wake Forest and Kentucky. That wait likely will not end until Friday, but an educated guess would likely gets us the the simple answer. An ace vs. ace matchup is highly probable in Morgantown.

This one could be fantastic.

Player	Starts	Record	ERA	WHIP	Innings	K Rate	BB/HBP Rate
Jaxon Jelkin	14	8-3	3.77	1.09	88.1	27%	7.5%
Chris Levonas	14	10-3	2.90	1.08	68.1	39.4%	13.6%

Kentucky has simply been at its best with Jaxon Jelkin on the mound this year. The Bat Cats are 11-4 outright with No. 0 on the mound with wins over Alabama, Tennessee, and Ole Miss. Jelkin has clearly been UK’s best arm all season and you can feel the difference when he is not out there.

Wake Forest has a similar story.

Chris Levonas is a former top-100 pick in the 2024 MLB Draft who turned down an opportunity to join the Milwaukee Brewers organization for a college career at Wake Forest. Now Levonas is trending to be a first-round pick. The right-handed pitcher can nearly reach 100 with the fastball and owns an assortment of pitches. Levonas leads this team in ERA (2.90), WHIP (1.08), innings (68.1), strikeouts (110), and wins (10) as a sophomore. Wake Forest is a different team when Levonas is on the mound but he’s only pitched in the seventh inning twice this season. That will be something to watch on Thursday.

One of the best pitching matchups in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament will take place in Morgantown.

Will Jack Sams get another big opportunity?

Kentucky has needed someone to step up in the bullpen all season. A team flaw has been exposed multiple times in SEC play. The Wildcats have searched desperately for answers. One has emerged down the stretch.

True freshman Jack Sams has come up big for this baseball team. Another appearance feels likely early in this regional.

Evansville (Feb. 20): 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, K
The Citadel (March 8): IP, 0 H, 0 ER, K, HBP
Murray State (March 24): IP, 0 H, 0 ER, K, 2 BB
Auburn (April 10): 2.1 IP, 3 H, ER, K
Vanderbilt (April 18): 3 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 4 K, BB
South Carolina (April 26): 2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 K
Florida (May 8): 3 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 4 K, BB
Arkansas (May 14): 1.2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 3 K BB
Vanderbilt (May 19): 1.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 K, BB

Vanderbilt had some success against Sams but a two-out error on a ground ball extended the inning before Sams recorded a clean seventh. A throwing error then allowed another runner to score in the eighth. Sams did his job over 1.2 innings before being pulled. Kentucky will likely go to him again in a big spot.

The Lexington (Ky.) Catholic product is sitting on a 2.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 20 strikeouts over 16 innings. This young pitcher appeared in the SEC Tournament after appearances early in the series with Florida and Arkansas.

This young rightly will likely be first up in the bullpen on Friday. Kentucky’s preferred plan probably doesn’t include anyone other than Jaxon Jelkin or Jack Sams pitching against Wake Forest.

How will Kentucky’s top bats respond?

The defense is ultimately what doomed Kentucky in the late innings in a 8-5 loss to Vanderbilt at the SEC Tournament, but the offense was unable to capitalize after a hot start. Tyler Bell and Carson Hansen each had solo blasts while Luke Lawrence logged a pair of RBI hits. That put UK up 4-1 in fifth inning but the big inning never came.

A tough day from the best players in the lineup not named Bell or Lawrence was the biggest reason why.

Jayce Tharnish finished the game 0-4 after entering the contest riding a seven-game hitting streak. This was only the fourth time in 41 games where Tharnish did not record a hit. Ethan Hindle also went 0-4. The best power bat in Kentucky’s lineup has rode a few slumps this season and UK really cannot afford to have another one arrive now. Hudson Brown was also 0-4 after going 8-29 (.275) with two doubles and three home runs since his return from a sickness that forced him to miss a month.

Kentucky is facing a very tough challenge on Friday. They will need strong at-bats and some clutch hits from their best bats in the lineup. That includes Tharnish, Hindle, and Brown. A bounce-back from this trio could go a long way.

What the numbers tell us about this matchup

This is what the data says about this NCAA Tournament contest.

Wake Forest

Record: 38-19 (16-14)
RPI: 20
DSR: 16
Runs: 7.9 (No. 35 overall)
Home Runs: 90 (No. 26 overall)
OBP: .412 (No. 29 overall)
Slugging: .506 (No. 28 overall)
Runs Allowed: 4.6 (No. 22 overall)
ERA: 4.65 (No. 42 overall)
WHIP: 1.41 (No. 52 overall)
K Rate: 30.5% (No. 2 overall)
Walk Rate: 12.5% (No. 235 overall)

Kentucky

Record: 31-21 (13-17)
RPI: 37
DSR: 30
Runs: 7.1 (No. 100 overall)
Home Runs: 55 (No. 142 overall)
OBP: .399 (No. 63 overall)
Slugging: .457 (No. 94 overall)
Runs Allowed: 5.3 (No. 77 overall)
ERA: 5.36 (No. 97 overall)
WHIP: 1.49 (No. 83 overall)
K Rate: 22.7% (No. 54 overall)
Walk Rate: 11.1% (No. 155 overall)

Wake Forest has the best offense in this pod and the Demon Deacons might also have the best starting pitcher. That is concerning for Kentucky. This ACC program has power, but the biggest weakness has also been a huge weakness for UK. Both staffs hand out plenty of free passes. Jaxon Jelkin has been more efficient than Chris Levonas in this area throughout the season. The Bat Cats could find an in-game advantage if they can grind some counts and earn some walks.

Who To Watch For: Wake Forest Demon Decons

— Luke Costello (RF | R/R | 6-2, 215): The sophomore corner outfielder hits second in Wake Forest’s offense. The Pennsylvania native leads the team in OPS (1.146), home runs (17), RBI (61), and slugging percentage (.680). Costello was a third-team All-ACC selection.

— Kade Lewis (1B | L/R | 6-2, 220): This former Butler transfer is now in year two at Wake Forest. The junior leads the Deacs in batting average (.362), hits (76), and total bases (127). Lewis produced 24 extra-base hits this season and earned second-team All-ACC honors.

— Dalton Wentz (3B | S/R | 6-2, 215): The former Virginia Player of the Year was included in Keith Law’s latest top-100 ranking. The utility infielder leads this team in doubles (16) and home runs (17). Wentz is a third-team All-ACC selection with impressive power.

Dalton Wentz joins the party 💪

💣 104 MPH
💣 31º LA
💣 437 FTpic.twitter.com/dcc0CAGSj1
— Wake Forest Baseball Analytics (@Wake_Analytics) April 3, 2026

— Javar Williams (CF | L/R | 6-2, 195): This New England native bats leadoff from the left side for Wake Forest. Williams is slashing .338/.455/.523 with 23 extra-base hits and 31 stolen bases. This offense is extremely dangerous when the junior is on base.

How To Watch: No. 2 Wake Forest vs. No. 3 Kentucky

The NCAA Tournament gets started at high noon on Friday. Kentucky and Wake Forest will get a national television window for what is expected to be a terrific 2 vs. 3 matchup in the Morgantown regional.

This will be the fifth all-time meeting on the diamond between these two programs. Wake Forest owns a 4-0 series lead. This is the first game between the Demon Deacons and Wildcats since 1950.

Tom Hart and Jensen Lewis will have the call on ESPN2.