Kentucky's win over LSU could be pivotal come Selection Sunday

Last night’s win over LSU was big for a variety of reasons. For the team and the fanbase, it was a needed moment of joy after an ugly first half amid a roller coaster season. For the resume, it could be the difference between dancing in March and missing the NCAA Tournament for just the fourth time in the past 30 years.

Kentucky is No. 34 in the latest NET rankings, the same as yesterday; however, the more important number to keep an eye on moving forward is LSU’s NET ranking. The Tigers fell from No. 46 to No. 51. For last night to remain a Quad 1 win, we need LSU to stay in the Top 75 of the NET Rankings. So, hurry back, Dedan Thomas.

Kentucky is now 2-5 in Quad 1 with nine Quad 1 games remaining. There are some Quad 2 games within range of Quad 1. Georgia fell ten spots in the NET to No. 33 after losing to Ole Miss at home. Indiana is No. 36. If the Bulldogs and/or the Hoosiers climb back into the top 30 of the NET, those games will move back to Quad 1. Thankfully, the loss to Missouri is hanging around in Quad 2 since the Tigers (NET 64) beat Auburn last night. We need Missouri to stay in the Top 75 of the NET, or that loss falls back to Quad 3.

With just 59 days until Selection Sunday, Kentucky needs all the Quad 1 wins it can get. As Evan Miyakawa wrote last night, a road win in the SEC like that could give the Selection Committee reason to give the Cats a bid, at the very least to the First Four in Dayton, which is where he currently thinks they’ll end up.

Kentucky comes back from EIGHTEEN down to win at the buzzer in Baton Rouge!

A road win like this in the SEC legitimately could be the difference between making and missing the NCAA tournament on Selection Sunday.

Oweh and Moreno were outstanding in the comeback. HUGE for UK. pic.twitter.com/ggsU632Nrr

— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) January 15, 2026

Kentucky, I'm calling it. https://t.co/aD1YaphKaM pic.twitter.com/jU8yH1B6ML

— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) January 15, 2026

The Road Ahead

So, where does Kentucky go from here? Here is the resume as it stands right now:

• Quad 1: 2-5 (9 games remaining)
• Quad 2: 1-1 (4 games remaining)
• Quad 3: 1-0 (1 game remaining)
• Quad 4: 7-0 (0 games remaining)

The first of those nine Quad 1 games is Saturday at Tennessee. KenPom currently projects Kentucky to lose that one, forecasting just six more wins the rest of the way for Kentucky. BartTorvik is even bleaker, going with five more wins for the Cats. A few of those are close enough to be considered toss-ups.

Here are Kentucky’s remaining games sorted by KenPom percentage to win: Likely (≥65% chance of winning), Toss-Ups (36–64% chance of winning), Unlikely (≤35% chance of winning).

Likely	Toss-Ups	Unlikely
Ole Miss (H, Jan. 24): 79%, Q3	Tennessee (H, Feb. 7): 56%, Q1	Arkansas (A, Jan. 31): 34%, Q1
Oklahoma (H, Feb. 4): 79%, Q2	Texas A&M (A, March 3): 50%, Q1	Tennessee (A, Jan. 17): 31%, Q1
Texas (H, Jan. 21): 68%, Q2	Vanderbilt (H, Feb. 28): 44%, Q1	Vanderbilt (A, Jan. 27): 23%, Q1
Georgia (H, Feb. 17): 66%, Q2	Florida (H, March 7): 43%, Q1	Florida (A, Feb. 14): 22%, Q1
South Carolina (A, Feb. 24): 65%, Q2	Auburn (A, Feb. 21): 40%, Q1

So, take care of the ones you should win (Quads 2 and 3) and steal some Quad 1 wins from the other two piles. And hope the teams you have good wins over (St. John’s, at LSU, Indiana) stay good and the teams you have bad losses (Missouri) stay bad.

If you prefer a chronological look, here are the remaining games with NET Rankings, Team Sheet position, and KenPom prediction:

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Quad	KenPom Prediction (1/15)
24	01/17/2026	@ Tennessee	Quad 1	75-69 L (31%)
40	01/21/2026	Texas	Quad 2	81-75 W (68%)
82	01/24/2026	Ole Miss	Quad 3	77-68 W (79%)
11	01/27/2026	@ Vanderbilt	Quad 1	82-74 L (23%)
23	01/31/2026	@ Arkansas	Quad 1	84-80 L (34%)
68	02/04/2026	Oklahoma	Quad 2	81-72 W (79%)
24	02/07/2026	Tennessee	Quad 1	73-71 W (56%)
16	02/14/2026	@ Florida	Quad 1	80-72 L (22%)
33	02/17/2026	Georgia	Quad 2	85-81 W (66%)
37	02/21/2026	@ Auburn	Quad 1	79-77 L (40%)
100	02/24/2026	@ South Carolina	Quad 2	75-71 W (65%)
11	02/28/2026	Vanderbilt	Quad 1	79-77 L (44%)
48	03/03/2026	@ Texas A&M	Quad 1	80-79 L (50%)
16	03/07/2026	Florida	Quad 1	77-75 L (43%)

If the current KenPom projections play out exactly as is, Kentucky’s record would be: 17-14 (SEC: 8-10). If you plug those wins into BartTorvik’s NCAA Tournament Teamcast, Kentucky would be a No. 11 seed in the tournament, the first of the last four teams in. Meaning, they’d be playing in the First Four in Dayton.

Again, gotta pick up some toss-ups somewhere along the way or make a decent run in the SEC Tournament to feel comfortable about making the NCAA Tournament. But it looks better than it would have had Kentucky lost last night. Shoutout to Malachi Moreno.