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KSR Golf: Charles Schwab Challenge

Adam Luckett05/24/22

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Article written by:On3 imageAdam Luckett

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Charles Schwab
(Photo courtesy of Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

The major championship season is halfway over in professional golf, but the PGA Tour is not stopping. The tour is headed back to Texas for the second time in three weeks to play at an historic venue.

KSR Golf is looking to keep the good vibes rolling after picks Mito Pereira and Will Zalatoris gave it a great run at Southern Hill Country Club last weekend.

Let’s find some winners for the Charles Schwab Challenge as the U.S. Open is just a few weeks away.

Course layout

Colonial Country Club (Fort Worth, Texas) is currently the longest active non-major host on the PGA Tour circuit as this course has been hosting events since 1946. With a rich history, this is one of the most underrated stops on the tour. The Par 70 layout stretches 7,209 yards with small greens and tree-lined fairways.

With just enough water on the course, playing at Colonial can be a pain in the rear. It’s not impossible to score here, but this is a course that rewards golfers with accuracy and the ability to gain strokes with the putter. Bombers off the tee have a hard time separating themselves if their shots with the driver are not accurate.

Ball striking is important, but those who efficiently use their irons, wedges, and putters the best could have the upper-hand this week.

Advanced stat of the week

After leaning heavily on them last week, the driver stats are getting thrown out of the window this week. For the Charles Schwab Challenge, KSR Golf will be focusing on strokes gained approach and strokes gained putting as scoring will have to be done on the second and third shots this week in the Lonestar State.

Sam Burns has missed the cuts in half of his last four tournaments, but the 25-year-old ranks in the top-25 of both strokes gained approach and strokes gained putting. Burns has a couple of wins this season and usually performs well on Texas courses. With 30/1 odds at Draft Kings, the LSU product is worth heavy consideration on Memorial Day weekend.

Luckett’s Locks

After winning the 2019 U.S. Open, Gary Woodland saw his career take a bit of a nosedive, but the 38-year-old has recovered his form this year. The No. 102 ranked golfer has only made 50 percent of his cuts but is usually contending with four top-10 finishes. At the Valero Texas Open, Woodland finished with a T-8 and had a pair of top-five finishes in the Florida swing. Ranking inside the top-50 of both strokes gained approach and strokes gained putting, the veteran fits the metrics and is getting great value at 50/1.

We’re jumping on Woodland to get his first victory since that major championship three years ago.

For a safer selection, both Sam Burns and Max Homa rank inside the top-30 in both metrics with stronger numbers in approach plays. The latter will be a popular pick to win at Colonial. We feel good about Homa’s form, and a top-10 finish (+250) feels like a safe play.

Mito Pereira was a great story last week, but things fell apart for the rookie on Sunday. It has probably been a rough few days, and the young golfer is turning around to play a tournament this week. That is a quick turnaround, and we’re going to bet on Pereira having a short stay in Texas. Let’s lock in a missed cut play at +250.

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2022-06-29