KSR Staff Predictions: Kentucky vs LSU in the SEC Tournament

by: KSR03/11/26

Kentucky and LSU will open the SEC Tournament on Wednesday, tipping off at 11:30 local time in Nashville. The first-round game is unfamiliar territory for the school with 32 championships, which fell to the tournament’s No. 9 seed on the last day of the regular season. But anything can happen in March, and anything can happen against LSU. We saw that earlier this year in Kentucky’s improbable come-from-behind win in Baton Rouge.

Before the conference tournament tips off in Nashville, the KSR crew has thoughts about the game and the Wildcats’ chances against the bracket.

Read our predictions in the PARLOUR Pizza Predictions as we count down to the SEC Tournament.

Drew Franklin

Kentucky stole the first meeting in January with the Play of the Year in Baton Rouge. The Wildcats erased an 18-point deficit to win 75-74, setting off a run of seven wins in eight games. Kentucky will handle its business against the Tigers again in Nashville, although it won’t be nearly as dramatic. LSU may lead for a bit, but it’ll be mostly Kentucky in the opening game of the SEC.

The No. 9 seed stinks, but Kentucky will take advantage of it with a win on Wednesday to advance to Thursday’s second round. My MVP pick? Otega Oweh, of course. He isn’t going out quietly.

Score Prediction: Kentucky 73, LSU 65

Nick Roush

The Kentucky basketball vibes are not great around the Roush House. I told myself that I wasn’t going to get worked up over the Florida game when I knew it was going to be a loss. Then I fumed for 12 hours over the performance.

The reality is that over the last seven games, Kentucky has played a full 40 minutes of basketball only once, the win over Vanderbilt. They are not peaking at the right time. There’s one other thing that really bugs me. The last time we saw Kentucky play at Bridgestone Arena, the Wildcats shot 16-60. Instead of getting some shots up at Bridgestone Arena on Tuesday, Mark Pope opted for another practice in Lexington. I got a bad feeling about this.

Score Prediction: LSU 77, Kentucky 73

Tyler Thompson

LSU is in a tough spot, Matt McMahon’s seat blazing hot after another 3-15 finish in the SEC. This could be his last game, which is just further incentive for the Tigers to avenge their last-second loss to Kentucky in Baton Rouge. They led by 18 in that game, in case you forgot.

The vibes aren’t great with Kentucky coming into this game either. It’s easy to talk yourself into a loss, but I’ll give this group a little more life with a clean slate. Even though the early tip on Wednesday at Bridgestone will be weird, the Kentucky fans there will be loud. Hopefully, things don’t turn south, and we get another chorus of boos like we did in the Cats’ last game in the building. That would be just miserable.

Give me Kentucky by seven, Collin Chandler warming back up after a cold stretch, and Otega Oweh doing what he does best, taking over the game to ensure at least one more day in Music City.

Score Prediction: Kentucky 75, LSU 68

Jack Pilgrim

Kentucky cannot lose this game. The Wildcats cannot fall behind by 18 points again and leave it up to Malachi Moreno to save the day with a turnaround jumper at the buzzer. It’s already embarrassing enough as is to open the SEC Tournament and play on Wednesday for the first time since 1979 — going one-and-done just can’t happen.

They got curbstomped their last time in this building. And the time before that. Three straight times, when you count Nashville in general with the 25-point road loss at Vanderbilt. That’s a combined 64 points at Bridgestone Arena (35 vs. Gonzaga, 29 vs. Alabama) and 89 points in the Music City. Big Blue Nation deserves better, and it needs to come this week at the SEC Tournament, starting with a statement victory against a bad LSU team whose head coach will almost certainly be fired the second the Tigers’ season ends. Opening as a 7.5-point favorite against the No. 16 seed in the event in what should be a sea of blue is a slap in the face as is. This should not be close, and if it is, I will continue to be angry about the current product that is Kentucky basketball.

Prove me right, Cats. Please. We are begging. Don’t screw this up. Denzel Aberdeen is game MVP and Kam Williams returns to hit a feel-good three at the end of regulation with the good guys up big.

Score Prediction: Kentucky 84, LSU 65

Jacob Polacheck

I’m scared to predict this game. This Kentucky team is unpredictable. Realistically, Kentucky should easily take care of business against LSU and advance, but the vibes with this season have been off all year.

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I’m picking Kentucky to win, but I think LSU will keep it close. My game MVP is Denzel Aberdeen, who will have 20 points. This time, Kentucky won’t have to rely on an insane comeback and an unbelievable buzzer-beating shot. That doesn’t mean it’ll be a runaway victory.

Score Prediction: Kentucky 82, LSU 74

Adam Luckett

LSU struggles to shoot the ball from three, has a bad three-point defense, fouls a ton, and is a bad defensive rebounding team. There is a lot of negativity in Big Blue Land right now, but this is truly a get-right spot for Kentucky on Wednesday at the SEC Tournament.

UK’s defense and positional size will present some problems for the Bayou Bengals. LSU’s defense was one of the worst in the SEC this season, and will present an opportunity for this Kentucky offense to have a big performance.

Collin Chandler will get open looks, Otega Oweh should get plenty of shot attempts close to the basket, the Cats will win the rebounding battle, and likely get plenty of stops if they can keep LSU off the free-throw line. This is setting up to be a double-digit victory as long as the Wildcats do not drop an egg. They have real matchup advantages.

LSU might need to make 11-12 or more threes to win this. Kentucky gets stops and records the program’s first double-digit victory at the SEC Tournament since 2019.

Score: Kentucky 85, LSU 70

Zack Geoghegan

Kentucky should win this game. There won’t be a better opportunity to shake off the bad taste of last week’s two losses than this one. It certainly doesn’t feel like Matt McMahon is going to be coaching at LSU for much longer, either. The Tigers enter this one having dropped three straight games, most recently a triple-overtime defeat against Texas A&M. The only thing LSU will be playing for this week is the chance to play spoiler.

I’m admittedly low on this Kentucky right now. Unfortunately, I’m not alone. Add in the fact that LSU at one point led by 18 points in the first meeting between these two teams, and it only furthers my worries. But that was nearly two months ago now. There is no reason UK should lose this game. I’m going to act like that will be the case. Otega Oweh goes for 26 points as the ‘Cats sneak out a win down the stretch.

Score: Kentucky 79, LSU 72

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