KSR Staff Predictions: Kentucky vs. No. 25 Tennessee

by: KSR02/07/26

Kentucky came back from 17 down to beat Tennessee last month in Knoxville. Since then, the Cats have won four of their last five, and may have figured out how to avoid those slow starts. The Vols have won four straight since the loss, climbing back into the AP Top 25. Freshman Nate Ament has been stellar during that stretch, averaging 24.5 points per game.

Will Kentucky complete the sweep at Rupp Arena with the 1996 team in the house to celebrate the 30th anniversary of their national championship season? It sure would be nice to christen the new throwback denim uniforms with a win.

Here are our Parlour Pizza Pregame Predictions.

Tyler Thompson

On Saturday, we’ll find out if Kentucky has really moved on from its Jekyll and Hyde tendencies. If they get off to a fast start at Rupp, I’ll feel really good about this game. The Vols will be fired up and ready for revenge; the Cats have proven they’re capable of coming back from big deficits — 17 in Knoxville — but asserting the upper hand from the get-go in a highly anticipated game, complete with special uniforms, would be a sign of growth.

A pattern has emerged recently with Kentucky: the core three of Otega Oweh, Denzel Aberdeen, and Collin Chandler playing well, and a role player or two stepping up. On Wednesday vs. Oklahoma, that was Brandon Garrison. In Knoxville, it was Jasper Johnson and Mo Dioubate. I think both could play big roles again in round two, but this game comes down to the core three outshining Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament. Ament has been on a roll lately. Kentucky did a decent job of keeping him in check in Knoxville, at least in the first half. Chandler will need to win that matchup again for Kentucky to complete the sweep. After his play in the last few games, I wouldn’t bet against him.

I still feel a little gunshy predicting big wins given the volatility of the season — wouldn’t it suck if Tennessee spoiled a big night? — but here’s to the Cats doing the damn thing with the 1996 team proudly looking on.

Score: Kentucky 74, Tennessee 72

Adam Luckett

Mark Pope is looking to improve his record to 4-1 against Tennessee. The Wildcats are bringing back the denim jerseys for rivalry weekend. Rupp Arena will probably produce its best crowd of the season on Saturday night as the Cats look to sweep the Vols.

This one will be decided in the final segment. The game will likely come down to a pair of key areas when the Wildcats are on defense.

Tennessee struggles to score when they cannot create second-chance opportunities but that is often not an issue because the Vols rank No. 1 nationally in offensive rebound percentage (45.2%). UK gave up 16 offensive rebounds in the last meeting. Pope’s team cannot allow that to happen again. However, turnovers and offensive rebounding allowed UK to win the game. The Vols rank No. 276 nationally in turnover percentage (18.5%) but UK has not been great at forcing takeaways but they did get some big live-ball turnovers in Knoxville. Can the Cats replicate that?

This one is going to be a very close call. I’m not sure Kentucky can rely on defensive turnover creation again. Almost no one in college basketball is keeping this Vols team off the offensive glass. Tennessee has the best unit (defense) on the floor. Kentucky needed 11 threes, an uncharacteristically high turnover rate on defense, and 14 offensive rebounds to leave Knoxville with a two-point win. I’m not sure all of that will come together on Saturday.

UK will have a major advantage in transition if it can win on the defensive glass and force turnovers. Can they do it? I’m skeptical.

Tennessee leaves Lexington with a third consecutive road win.

Score: Tennessee 78, Kentucky 76

Nick Roush

Kentucky has won seven of its last eight games. The Wildcats are a half-game back from the top of the SEC standings. After a parade of injuries and a pair of blowouts in Nashville, nobody could have seen this coming.

The SEC Network crew tried to give this team a nickname on Wednesday: “The Unpredictables.” The rationale behind it is sound, except that the tables are turning. Kentucky has done enough to weather difficult storms and overcome adversity, that it’s created a sense of belief around Big Blue Nation.

Just when I thought I was in, they’re going to pull me back out. It has nothing to do with Xs and Os. But this is a flawed team that is probably going to come down to Earth and disappoint BBN. It won’t be the same magnitude of last year’s loss to Arkansas, but all of the anticipation bubbling has my Spidey-sense tingling, fearing the worst is right around the corner.

Score: Tennessee 82, Kentucky 72

Zack Geoghegan

The Rupp Arena atmosphere for this one will likely be the best we see all season long. Kentucky can’t let the home crowd get out of it early. Coming out of the gates and keeping the score tight will be key. Don’t expect Tennessee to cough up a 17-point lead in round two — revenge will be on the brain. The Volunteers haven’t lost since UK came to Knoxville, rattling off four straight wins over Alabama, Georgia (OT), Auburn, and Ole Miss.

Tennessee has been an improved offensive group during this recent winning stretch, especially from deep (35.9 percent, albeit on low volume). The Vols still attack the glass better than anyone and get to the free-throw line regularly, but they’ve also cut down on turning the ball over. Their defense is still impressive. Rick Barnes has his group playing arguably their best basketball of the season right now.

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The same can also be said about Kentucky, though — even with the Vanderbilt hiccup. One (or both!) of Malachi Moreno and Brandon Garrison needs to have productive games after both played below expectations in round one. This smells like another game suited perfectly for Mo Dioubate. Those three have to stay out of foul trouble. Along with another 20-point out from Otega Oweh, I’m picturing Collin Chandler hitting five three-pointers in his best game yet as a ‘Cat as Kentucky sweeps the Vols in the regular season.

Score: Kentucky 81, Tennessee 78

Jack Pilgrim

This may burn me, folks, but I’m starting to trust this team. They’re learning and growing right before our very eyes, and I think it’s somewhat sustainable. Combine that with the hype surrounding this weekend with the ’96 reunion and the return of the denim uniforms, and these Wildcats will want to make their head coach look good while looking good themselves. I mean, have you seen ’em yet? The throwbacks are SWEET.

Tennessee is playing its best basketball of the season and the challenge is massive for Kentucky. The Volunteers have won four straight since that Knoxville matchup, including three Quad 1 victories at Alabama, at Georgia and vs. Auburn. Then they did to Ole Miss at home what you’re supposed to do to Ole Miss at home. Also, Nate Ament is picking up right where he left off in the second half against the Wildcats, averaging 24.5 PPG since that meeting.

But, man, I just like the Cats in this spot. The momentum feels real and while there will be a slip-up or two down the stretch, it won’t come here. Denzel Aberdeen goes into takeover mode again while Otega Oweh continues his streak of 20-point games with a fifth straight. Also, give me another fun scoring run for Jasper Johnson, just like he gave in the first half in that first road win! I feel it in my bones.

It’s a back-and-forth classic with Kentucky throwing the final haymaker to send Tennessee home with a loss for the season sweep.

Score: Kentucky 83, Tennessee 81

Jacob Polacheck

Kentucky has already taken one from Tennessee on the road. Now, the Vols come to Lexington to face a UK team that’s found its stride.

Obviously, Kentucky will be without Jaland Lowe, Jayden Quaintance, and Kam Williams, but the roster is finding ways to get consistency out of the healthy group. With that consistency, Kentucky is going to be a tough out. With the 1996 team in the house, the pressure will be ramped up.

I’m not expecting Brandon Garrison to have another game as he did on Wednesday, but if he can play consistently well, that adds a new dimension to the team. My pick for game MVP is Denzel Aberdeen, who’s taken on a major role for this team. Still riding with Kentucky.

Score: Kentucky 81, Tennessee 75

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