KSReds: Cincinnati Reds 2023 Season Preview

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There is a glass half full and a glass half empty way of looking at the 2023 Cincinnati Reds season. Actually, it is probably more fair to say there is a glass half full and a glass completely empty way of looking at what lies ahead. One one hand, the Reds have arguably the most exciting trio of young arms in Major League Baseball. However, on the other hand, there is very little proven talent on this roster.

Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Tommy Pham, and Brandon Drury all went out the door at last year’s trade deadline. The offseason signings of guys such as Will Myers and Kevin Newman probably didn’t exactly get fans lining up for season tickets. Joey Votto is going to start the season on the injured list as will Nick Senzel who is no stranger to missing extended periods of time. Much like last season, simple availability will likely be the difference between being below-average and downright bad.

Only three Cincinnati players appeared in over 100 games last season with Kyle Farmer (145 games) being the lone guy to break 110 games. On the mound, the Reds used 17 different starting pitchers on the season and 38 different players made at least one appearance on the bump. In total, the ball club used 66 different players breaking the previous record of 57 that was used in the 2003 season. When you already aren’t expected to be very good, having to go deeper into your bench certainly isn’t a recipe for success.

The inability to stay healthy led to one of the worst seasons in Cincinnati Reds’ history. Their 62-100 record marked just the second time losing 100 games in franchise history and the first since 1982. Furthermore, the Reds have won just two postseason games since winning the 1990 World Series. For a franchise with such a storied history and great fans, there is getting to be a lot of restlessness for success. Expectations are not high for this season, but you can only sell the future for so long. The young talent in Cincinnati will have to produce this year or that restlessness could lead to some Reds staffers, both in the front office and in the dugout, losing their jobs.

Cincinnati Reds Offense

For a team that slashed just .235/.304/.372, maybe hitting the reset button isn’t such a bad thing. Jonathan India is expected to bat leadoff once again, but the rest of the projected lineup will have only 970 returning plate appearances combined. India, the 2021 Rookie of the Year, hit .308 in spring training and looks ready to bounce back from his sophomore slump. Fellow young star Tyler Stephenson looked healthy in the spring hitting .271. Much of the Cincinnati Reds’ offensive success will rely on those two 26-year-olds performing like All-Stars.

Left-handed bat Jake Fraley was a bit of a bright spot for the Reds last season. He hit .259 and took advantage of a batter-friendly Great American Ball Park, smacking 12 home runs in 68 games. This spring, Fraley slashed an impressive .320/.382/.600. The hope is he will get some protection from veteran hitter Wil Myers who is likely to occupy the three-hole in the lineup. Myers had a lot of pop in his prime and was excellent as recently as the shortened 2020 season. However, the last two years haven’t been as good for the now 32-year-old. A change of scenery to GABP could reinvigorate his career. If so, the Reds just might have themselves a dangerous top of the batting order.

Further down the lineup is where the questions really start to pop up. Spencer Steer will likely be Cincinnati’s everyday third basemen this season. He came over in the Tyler Mahle trade at the deadline and played in 28 games for the Reds as a utility infielder. Steer was pretty solid in the spring, but he hit .211 last season in 95 at-bats. He will have to become a serviceable everyday player this year. Jason Volser and Will Benson are two other new faces to the Reds lineup that we will likely see on Opening Day. Volser was an offseason signing while Benson was picked up via a trade with the Cleveland Guardians. Neither are proven at the big league level but will get a chance to play consistently this season.

The projected Opening Day lineup will be rounded out with familiar faces TJ Friedl and Jose Barrero. These two young players hit .298 and .311 respectively this spring which provides a little bit of hope. However, their lack of success over larger sample sizes in the MLB, specifically from Barrero, will keep fans questioning if it can carry over to this season. Both do play strong defense though which will likely help keep them in the lineup regardless of what they produce with their bats.

"The @Reds fanbase, I think, is in good hands."

Joey Votto is excited about the young, game-changing, destiny-changing talent that he sees in the organization. pic.twitter.com/FZ6nB285ZJ
— Bally Sports Cincinnati (@BallySportsCIN) March 29, 2023

Obviously getting Joey Votto back in the lineup will help to bolster things as well. Even at age 39 and coming off of his career-worst season, Votto is likely better than other options. Veteran catcher Curt Casali is back in Cincinnati as well providing depth behind the plate. Look for utility infielder Kevin Newman to get plenty of at-bats this season as well. Newman hit .274 in Pittsburgh this season before coming over in an off-season trade.

There may not be a ton to work with at the plate, but at least there are some young bats with upside. A lot will rest on the health of Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson to keep this offense out of the National League cellar. However, Great American Ball Park is a place that can help make up for some deficiencies. It still isn’t likely though that the Cincinnati Reds win games due to their offensive production this season.

Cincinnati Reds Pitching

If there is a reason for excitement, it certainly would be built around the Cincinnati Reds’ young starting pitching. The trio of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Graham Ashcraft is arguably one of the best under-26 groups that we’ve seen in two decades. Some of the excitement is built on upside but these three have all produced at the MLB level. Greene led the Reds in starts last season with 24. He was able to strike out 164 batters in just 125.2 innings as well. His nearly 100 miles-per-hour fastball paired with a tight, hard slider make him very tough to hit. However, the 23-year-old did allow 24 home runs. Keeping the ball inside the ballpark will be a necessary step forward this season to lower his 4.44 earned run average.

25-year-old Nick Lodolo is likely the highest-upside pitcher of the group. The left-hander turned in a 3.66 ERA while striking out 131 batters in 103.1 innings pitched. Like Greene, Lodolo also is excellent at missing bats. He has one of the best breaking balls of any pitcher in baseball and blows his fastball by you as well. Lodolo was dominant in spring training going 4-0 with a 2.16 earned run average. He also struck out nearly 12 batters per nine innings. If he can stay healthy the Cincinnati Reds might have a future All-Star at the top of their rotation.

Last but not least, Graham Ashcraft rounds out the Reds’ talented trio. Ashcraft won’t strike guys out like the other two, but he still finds success with a powerful arm. Last season the 25-year-old finished 5-6 with a 4.89 earned run average in 105 innings. However, he is coming off of a very strong spring where he vastly improved his strikeout rate.

among 140 pitchers w/ 100+ IP in 2022, Graham Ashcraft ranked…

6th in AVG FB velo (97.2 MPH)
8th in GB% (54.5%)
7th in Barrel% (4.8%)

…but also:

132nd in K% (15.3%)
118th in ERA (4.89)

if he can up the whiffs — which he's clearly started to do this spring — watch out https://t.co/VXJGErfwAl
— Céspedes Family BBQ (@CespedesBBQ) March 23, 2023

The rest of the Cincinnati Reds rotation is where things get a little hairy. Connor Overton and Luis Cessa are likely to begin in the final two starting spots. Veteran Luke Weaver will begin the season on the injured list but is likely to start games this season for the Reds. Overton is unproven with just seven career Major League starts. However, he was solid in his four starts last season for Cincinnati. As for Cessa, most of his career has been spent in the bullpen. His conversion to what will likely be a full-time starter this season is necessary though due to a lack of arms. David Bell and company will be relying heavily on their top three arms to win games this season.

As for the bullpen, there are a lot of familiar names that likely don’t instill much confidence. Joel Kuhnel, Buck Farmer, Ian Gibaut, Reiver Sanmartin, and Alexis Diaz are all back in the Reds bullpen. Meanwhile, Alex Young, Derek Law, and Fernando Cruz round out the Cincinnati relievers. It will be all about piecing together innings for this group. Obviously, there will need to be a few outperform expectations, but simply eating innings will be important as well. There just isn’t a whole lot of depth to the Reds’ pitching staff.

Cincinnati Reds Season Outlook

There is no denying the fact that expectations are low right now. The Cincinnati Reds are coming off of one of the worst seasons in franchise history. Additionally, there were no obvious roster upgrades made in the offseason. Those last two sentences do not add up to a whole lot of hope. However, there is some young talent that will draw fans out to Great American Ball Park. The trio of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Graham Ashcraft has a chance to be special. Spencer Steer is a highly regarded prospect that will get a chance to play every day. Then, there is 21-year-old sensation Elly De La Cruz. Will this be the year that we see him make in Major League Baseball debut? Regardless of how the season goes, Opening Day is here and that alone is exciting enough for now.