Liam Coen and Kentucky's Pace of Play May Look Different in 2023 

The basketball Cats have righted the ship. That’s fun and brings back a sense of normalcy to the BBN. Back to football. My last post featured a quarter by quarter scoring comparison between the Liam Coen led offense in 2021 compared to Rich Scangarello’s production from last season. The 2022 offense was notoriously slow. I’m not referencing players in that assessment, but more so by snaps per minute. 

Lat fall Kentucky ranked 129 out of 131 FBS programs by running a play every 30.1 seconds. Liam Coen’s lone season in Lexington wasn’t much faster after snapping the football every 28.9 seconds. But, there is a distinct dissimilarity between the two strategies. Coen’s system contained an up-tempo component that provided an effective change of pace that took advantage of personnel and momentum. Scangarello’s scheme rarely displayed that capability and barely beat the play clock on far too many occasions. Opposing defenses feasted on UK’s unhurried methods. Let’s take a specific look at the score at the end of the third quarters during the Coen season in order to better describe how the snaps per minute were misrepresentative.  

Kentucky’s 2021 average lead of at the end of third quarter was 24-16. That advantage going into the final period brought on a change in the coordinator’s play sheet and speed of operation. The Coen season featured an offense that huddled for the most part and included Will Levis taking snaps under center. Both were anomalies in modern-day college football. The future NFL signal caller also had the option of making play changes at the line of scrimmage all while utilizing cadence in order to draw opposing defenses off-sides. The Cats were balanced and had the capability to effectively go fast until slowing down with a late-game lead. Last season’s offense attempted to increase its speed of operation, but all too many times that resulted in a quicker three and out. 

Therefore, the snap per minute comparison is somewhat misleading. When leading after the third quarter, Coen leaned on Chris Rodriguez Jr. and the Big Blue Wall to close out games. For example, the 2021 Wildcats ran for 2,594 yards, scored 27 touchdowns on the ground, averaged 5.2 yards per carry and 199.54 yards per game. A high percentage of that production came in the second half. Coen ran the football on 57% of all snaps. The 2022 offense was mostly inept via the rush which went against recent trends: 1,511 yards, 3.2 YPC, 9 TDs, and 116 yards per game. Scangarello’s scheme ran the football on 54% of plays. Not good. 

Let’s take a look at how Kentucky closed out games in 2021 by providing the score at the end of the 3^rd quarter and the contest’s final outcome. 

End of 3rd Quarter: 31-7
W-Louisiana Monroe, final score 45-10

End of 3rd: 27-21
W-Missouri 35-28

End of 3rd: 14-13
W-Chattanooga 28-23

End of 3rd: 13-7
W-South Carolina 16-10

End of 3rd: 13-10
W-Florida 20-13

End of 3rd: 28-7
W-LSU 42-21

End of 3rd: 7-24
L-Georgia 30-13

End of 3rd: 10-31
L-Mississippi State 31-17

End of 3rd: 35-38
L-Tennessee 45-42

End of 3rd: 31-11
W-Vanderbilt34-17

End of 3rd: 38-7
W-New Mexico State 49-16

End of 3rd: 38-7
W-Louisville 52-21

End of 3rd: 13-10
W-Iowa 20-17

Ten 2021 wins sported an average third quarter lead of 26-11. Three 2021 losses featured an average discrepancy of 31-17.  Much like in my previous post, Stoops’ record is much more advantageous when leading at halftime (47-7).  Coen proved to be an excellent play caller with a lead and was at his best when closing out games. Additionally, Kentucky’s average 3rd quarter advantage in the final three regular season games of the 2021 season against Vanderbilt, New Mexico State, and Louisville was 39-11. The Cats were able to play depth contributors and slowed down the game in the final period in order to milk the clock. All this adds up to a misleading pace of play comparison between 2021 and 2022. 

What Does All This Mean? 

First, I hate math. Second, I’m extremely excited to have Liam Coen back in Lexington if you can’t tell. My old saying stands firm, “It’s not personal, it’s personnel” also applies to play callers. The 2022 offense disappointed in numerous measurable accounts. This includes the lack of scoring, pace of play, Red Zone inefficiencies, and the operation’s overall clumsiness. All were points of frustration for the BBN. Mark Stoops is hoping for a return to 2021 in relation to overall value.  

Can RB Ray Davis close out games at the same level of authority as Chris Rodriguez Jr.? We’ll see. That may be an unfair expectation. C-Rod was an all-timer. Will Levis’ running ability was also a factor that assisted UK during end-game scenarios. Devin Leary is not considered to be a running quarterback. Can the Big Blue Wall return to its glory? Again, we’ll see. The OL is yet again my biggest question mark going into spring practice. Were the OL’s struggles based on personnel or scheme? I’d say a combination of both. Regardless, up-front play has to improve. That’s non-negotiable. The Big Blue Wall is the backbone and personality of the Kentucky Football program. 

Liam Coen has said in recent interviews that his offense will look different in his second time around in Lexington. Just what will that look like? I’m curious. Quarterback Devin Leary also indicated that tempo may re-surface. How much tempo? How fast are we talking? There’s a plethora of questions surrounding the Wildcat’s offense going into spring practice. KSR will have you covered as we all find out what the Coen-led offense will be come September. 

223 days till football season