Luckett's Locks: Cold Weather

We were able to bounce back positively last week going 3-2 and are now sitting at just one game below .500 on the year with a 37-38 ATS mark. With another Saturday with plenty of college football being played we return as everyone prepares for conference championship this weekend. There have once again been some more cancellations, but the college football world continues to march forward in 2020.

I hope you like cold weather football because there is going to be a lot of it this weekend. Find you a bowl of chili and some good unders to play because there will be snow at multiple places this weekend.

Here are the best plays on the card.

Utah @ Colorado Under 47.5

The Buffaloes have been quite the surprise story under new head coach Karl Dorrell. Colorado is off to a 4-0 start with three league wins over UCLA, Stanford and Arizona. Jarek Broussard has been one of the best tailbacks in the Pac-12 posting over 180 yards per game while averaging 6.37 yards per carry. Meanwhile, the defense is getting the job done and in the air they have been dynamite. The Buffs are allowing just 5.5 yards per attempt and barely a 50% completion percentage. A win on Saturday would allow them to run the table.

The Utes had a lot to replace off of last year’s 11-1 Pac-12 North title team and it’s been a work in progress. South Carolina transfer Jake Bentley has gotten the call at quarterback, but has been average at best putting up 6.3 yards per attempt and throwing four interceptions in 78 throws. The defense is once again salty under Kyle Whittingham and they have been really good at stopping the rush.

Both Colorado and Utah rank in the top-3 of the conference in yards per play defense while temperatures will be below freezing with snow in the forecast. This thing is set to kick at 10am local time with bad weather and that means defense travels in Boulder. Play the under.

Michigan State @ Penn State (-15)

It’s been a rough year in Happy Valley for James Franklin, but the Nittany Lions are fresh off consecutive road wins against Michigan and Rutgers with a chance to end the season on a positive note. Through all of the rough going, wideout Jahan Dotson has been one of the best in college football as Penn State still sits at No. 22 in SP+.

WHAT DID JAHAN DOTSON JUST DO? 😱

He went David Tyree then OBJ on back-to-back plays! 🔥@PennStateFBall narrows the deficit: pic.twitter.com/RDhHbpPAi1

— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) November 1, 2020

The Spartans sit at 2-4 with two upset wins and four blowout losses. They have been a strange team in their first season under Mel Tucker, but they are playing some really good defense allowing just 5.19 yards per play.

We faded them last week and it feels like a good time to do it again. Michigan State is pretty bad while the advanced metrics tell us that Penn State is much better than their overall record. The Spartans have been trounced when defeated this season and we’re depending on that to happen again. Lay the double-digits.

Coastal Carolina @ Troy (+13.5)

The Chants now sit at 10-0 and are off the biggest victory in school history when they beat BYU at home with most of the college football world tuned in. This offense ranks in the top-25 nationally in yards per play while the defense is one of the best in the Sun Belt. Quarterback Grayson McCall has been superb all season accounting for 25 touchdowns with just one interception in this spread option attack. All eyes in Conway are on the Sun Belt championship and a potential berth in the New Year’s Six at stake next week.

Its been a rocky ride for Chip Lindsey and the second-year head coach sits at just 10-12 and is a loss away from a second consecutive losing season. The former Auburn offensive coordinator may just be on the hot seat and could very much need a win on Saturday. The Trojans have been very disappointing with one of the worst offenses in the Sun Belt with a 1-3 record in one-possession games, but they are off a very big rivalry win over South Alabama.

This is the ultimate sandwich spot. Coastal is off their biggest game ever and the program’s next biggest game ever is just a week away. Facing a bad Troy team this is the ultimate look ahead spot. For that reason, we need to take the home dog getting double-digits. The Chanticleers get caught peeking and Troy gets the cover. Take the points.

Tennessee (-15.5) @ Vanderbilt

It’s been a very long season for Jeremy Pruitt as the Vols have lost six straight games and haven’t been within single-digits in any of them. However, they were competitive in the home loss to Florida as Harrison Bailey and J.T. Shrout gave them some quality play behind center. They desperately need a win and will be heading to Nashville to get one.

Vanderbilt just fired their head coach and the last time we saw them they were shut out against Missouri. The Commodores just lost their best defensive player to an opt-out and have all kinds of roster issues. They have put up a valiant fight this season, but it is clear there is not much there.

This is a get right spot for Tennessee’s offense and the Vols should be able to roll on the ground. The Commodores don’t have many answers playing for an interim coach with not much left on the roster. Pruitt gets a much needed victory as the Vols cruise on the road. Lay the double digits.

Boise State @ Wyoming (+12.5)

The Broncos seem well on their way to another Mountain West title under Bryan Harsin. Boise State is 4-0 in conference play and has locked up a spot in next week’s conference championship against either San Jose State or Nevada. The Broncos happily returned sophomore quarterback Hank Bachmeier to the lineup and he has produced five touchdowns in three starts.

Craig Bohl continues to do some really good things with this Wyoming football program and victory on Saturday would get them to .500 in a really weird year. The Cowboys have a dominant ground game that is putting up 247 yards per outing with Xazavian Holliday and Louisville transfer Trey Smith serving as a deadly one-two punch. However, the pass offense is pretty non-existent while the defense has been good, but not great.

By Boise State standards, this is a pretty average football team they have while Wyoming has always given them trouble. It’s barely going to be 20 degrees in Laramie with snow so being able to establish the run is going to be very important. That is why we’re backing the home dog and taking the points.

Best Bet: Georgia (-13) @ Missouri

The Bulldogs sit at 6-2 on the year and are firmly out of the playoff hunt, but now it is all about JT Daniels. The USC transfer finally got the keys to the offense and has looked really good. The former five-star has been rock solid through two starts and against South Carolina the Bulldogs bludgeoned the Gamecocks with their ground attack. You add that in with the best defense in the SEC and it means some very good things.

Eli Drinkwitz may just be the frontrunner for SEC coach of the year honors in 2020. The former NC State offensive coordinator and App State head coach has the Tigers sitting at 5-3 and in the top 25. They are 3-0 in one-possession games and are playing complementary football. Their defense won it against South Carolina and Kentucky. Their offense won it against Arkansas and LSU. They just keep finding ways to get it done.

It’s been a great run for Mizzou, but this is just too much value to pass up on with Georgia. The Dawgs have a top-flight defense and Mizzou has struggled against good defenses all year. You add that in with a dynamic pass element after Mizzou was roasted by Arkansas and that means good things. It’s been a great year in CoMo, but it ends on Saturday. Expect the Bulldogs to hammer away with their ground game with snow in the forecast.