Luckett's Locks: Elite Eight prop bets

Adam Luckett03/25/23


Article written by:On3 imageAdam Luckett


San Diego State
(Photo courtesy of Joe Robbins/NCAA Photos via Getty Images)

After a wild Thursday and Friday in college basketball, there are only seven games remaining in the NCAA Tournament. The best round of March Madness has arrived.

For the final eight teams standing, a strong run has been made to get to this point and each squad is only 40 minutes away from reaching the ultimate stage in college basketball. Only one team can win a national title, but playing in the Final Four is a great achievement for any program no matter its stature. But there is one more tense 40-minute game standing in the way.

With zero No. 1 seeds remaining, this tournament feels wide open. However, three of the top six teams in KenPom‘s efficiency rankings are still alive. There is a very good chance that one of college basketball’s best teams still cuts down the nets next Monday.

To get us ready for the four high-leverage games this weekend, we’re looking for winning tickets. With a limited menu, it’s time to dig into some of the props available on the board. Here at KSR, I’ve pulled the top prop bets for the Elite Eight.

Let’s get to the window.

Nae’Qwan Tomlin over 10.5 points (-105)

In the East Region, No. 3 seed Kansas State will square off with No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic at Madison Square Garden and all eyes are on Markquis Nowell who has put on an absolute show in this tournament. However, the real value in this game can be found on the interior.

FAU has just one player in their rotation taller than 6-8 and K-State five-man Nae’Qwan Tomlin (6-10, 210) has scored at least 10 points in four consecutive games. Tomlin benefits from dribble penetration created by Nowell, but can also make an occasional jump shot (18 three-point makes).

The New York City native goes over his season scoring average (10.3) against a favorable matchup.

Andre Jackson over 6.5 rebounds (-105)

On Saturday night, the best matchup of the Elite Eight will be played when No. 4 seed UConn faces off with No. 3 seed Gonzaga in Las Vegas. The Bulldogs have the No. 1 offense in college basketball and the Huskies have a top-15 unit on both ends of the floor.

Dan Hurley’s team is a strong rebounding squad led by center Adama Sanogo, but Andre Jackson also chips in on the glass as a wing and small ball four. The 6-6 junior is averaging 6.3 rebounds per game and will be asked to play a lot of minutes due to Gonzaga’s offensive flexibility which could lead to fewer minutes for backup big Alex Karaban.

Playing more at the four should lead to more boards for Jackson. Jump on the over.

Tristen Newton over 1.5 three-pointers (+185)

Enough of the favorites, it’s time to find some plus odds. In UConn-Gonzaga, a 37.7 percent three-point shooter that squeezes off 3.2 attempts per game is getting some great value.

Former East Carolina transfer Tristen Newton is having a career year from behind the arc and has hit multiple treys in three of UConn’s last five games.

We’re riding the recent good form with an over in a game where UConn is going to need to get close to 80 points to get back to the Final Four for the first time since 2014.

Creighton under 67.5 team points (-120)

San Diego State is an under machine. The Mountain West champs just put the clamps on No. 1 overall seed Alabama in the South Region as the Aztecs are on a crazy 11-0 ATS run on unders.

Most notably, no team has reached 70 points against Brian Dutcher’s defense in eight consecutive games. Only twice since February has an offense scored more than 67 points against SDSU.

That remains true on Sunday. Take Creighton’s team total to go under.

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