MACtion will be more difficult for Kentucky in 2022
The Kentucky Wildcats have a clear scheduling blueprint. Outside of the eight permanent conference games and the annual Governor’s Cup matchup with Louisville, the Wildcats have three games to play with every year. Typically that equals one FCS opponent and two Group of Five foes.
That will be no different in 2022. Due to the Louisville series moving back to Kroger Field, the Wildcats will get eight home games on the slate this season. Like some other years, the two Group of Five opponents are both coming south from the MAC. However, this year could be more challenging.
In 2021, Kentucky had a favorable non-conference draw. FCS Chattanooga was the best team the Wildcats saw out of its three non-permanent non-conference games. The Wildcats faced ULM and New Mexico State as bookends for their home schedule. Both teams were among the worst in the FBS last fall. That will not be the case this year.
Both Miami (Ohio) and Northern Illinois will be rolling into Lexington in September and Kentucky could have a sneaky challenge against the two teams Athlon Sports is predicting will play for the MAC title in December. The main reason for that is due to what each school is returning behind center.
Kentucky’s defense will be challenged in December.
Brett Gabbert paces big-play passing attack
St. Louis (Mo.) Christian Brothers quarterback Brett Gabbert is entering year four at Miami (Ohio). The younger brother of NFL quarterback Blaine Gabbert has been starting for the RedHawks since his true freshman season. In 2021, his absence was notable.
Gabbert missed three games due to injury, and the statistical drop-off was significant for offensive coordinator Eric Koehler.
- Without Brett Gabbert (3 games): 20 points per game, 5.49 yards per play
- With Brett Gabbert (10 games): 31.6 points per game, 6.55 yards per play
The six-foot redshirt junior finished the year with a low completion percentage (59.5%) but logged a solid success rate (46.8%) and was a big play-hunter. Gabbert saw 20.1 percent of his throws end as completions of 15 or more yards. The quarterback had eight passes go for 50-plus yards and that ranked inside the top-10 nationally.
The RedHawks should have a solid offensive line in 2021 and bring back three intriguing young running backs, but the passing game will be the difference-maker this fall. There is some star power for this unit to replace on defense, and Gabbert lost All-MAC performer Jack Sorenson at wideout.
However, there is enough available around him to make give the veteran a shot at being one of the best quarterbacks in the Group of Five this season. Kentucky’s big-play prevention defense will be challenge on Labor Day weekend.
Michigan State transfer gives Northern Illinois a huge spark
Over the last decade, Northern Illinois has been the most successful program in the parity crazed MAC. The Huskies won four conference titles in eight seasons under Dave Doeren and Rod Carey from 2011-18 and brought home alum Thomas Hammock following Carey’s departure for Temple.
After a 5-13 start to his tenure, Hammock righted the ship by going into the transfer portal and finding a quarterback.
Rocky Lombardi was a high three-star prospect in the class of 2017 that signed with Michigan State out of West Des Moines (Iowa) Valley. The quarterback would spend four years in East Lansing starting nine games and leading the Spartans to win over Michigan in “The Big House” to give Mel Tucker his first signature victory in 2020. However, Lombardi lost his job and decided to find a new home.
Landing with Hammock and offensive coordinator Eric Eidsness at Northern Illinois seems to be a perfect fit.
In his first year as QB1 for the Huskies, Lombardi led NIU to a 7-3 record in one-possession games and a MAC title. Combined with a strong rushing attack and a big-play pass offense, the Huskies beat Georgia Tech to begin the year and avenged a loss to Kent State in the MAC Championship. This team was very close to 10 wins if not for an unfortunate whistle in the Cure Bowl.
Despite having a bad defense, Lombardi willed NIU to a bunch of late wins. The transfer posted a low completion rate (58.3%) but hit enough big plays to make that ok and only took seven sacks on the season. Meanwhile, the transfer enhanced the NIU run game by posting a 55.2 percent rushing success rate with nine touchdowns and some big runs late in games.
The Huskies could have the best offensive line in the Group of Five this season to go along with their top two receivers and a pair of 500-plus yards rushers returning to DeKalb this year. Northern Illinois will have a great chance to repeat in the MAC, and Lombardi is the main reason why.
Unlike recent seasons, Kentucky will face two good offenses in the non-conference. Brad White’s defense will be challenged early in 2022. We will learn quickly about the state of the pass defense in Lexington.
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