Matt Jones on Mark Stoops: '85-90% chance' Kentucky has a new coach next year

After the embarrassing loss to Tennessee, a lot of Kentucky fans took out their frustrations on the F5 button/refresh on Sunday, hoping news would break that Mark Stoops was no longer the coach. That did not happen, but Matt Jones believes it’s only a matter of time before a change is made.

On this morning’s episode of Kentucky Sports Radio, Jones shared the latest he’s hearing about the coaching situation. He said the lopsided loss to the Vols dramatically increased the likelihood that the program will part ways with Stoops — unless the team somehow turns it around and goes to a bowl game. Kentucky is currently 2-5, 0-5 in the SEC, with five games remaining.

“Here’s where we are for the future. I know this for — it’s rarely I say certainty. I’ll say some certainty. I’d say we’re now at an 85 to 90% chance we’ll have a new coach next year. If you asked me that two weeks ago, before the Texas game, that number would have been like 50-55%. It’s 85%.”

“The only way it could be different, in my opinion, is if they were to win three [games], if they were to go 6-6, which would mean beating Auburn, Florida, and then either Vandy or Louisville.”

For the past few months, it’s felt like a 5-7 finish would be the gray area that would make Mitch Barnhart and the administration hesitate to make a change. Jones believes that’s no longer the case.

“I think there was a time 5-7 would have made it close; I don’t think it does anymore. Florida didn’t have a coach. Auburn’s barely got a coach. I mean, Vandy and Louisville, if you get one of those, that’d be nice, but I don’t think it changes anything, unless you beat Auburn and Florida.”

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Kentucky plays at Auburn on Saturday night. The following week, the Cats host Florida. Jones said that the results of those games will not only determine whether or not Stoops is the coach next year, but also the timing of that decision. An ugly performance vs. either the Tigers or the Gators could force the administration’s hand. Kentucky’s final home game of the season is vs. Tennessee Tech on the Saturday after the Florida game. Jones said the optics of Senior Day at Kroger Field matter.

“I think there’s a decent chance that I do the postgame show on Saturday night, and we know there will be a change,” Jones said of the Auburn game. “I think it’s unlikely that there’s a change made here in the middle of the year, but for the first time, I don’t think it’s impossible. I think if they lost to Auburn and Florida, and one of those was embarrassing, it could happen.

“I think it’s unlikely. It’s not really Mitch’s style, but I don’t know that he wants an empty stadium for that Tennessee Tech game. I think that the Tennessee Tech game has a chance to be really embarrassing to the program in a lot of ways, and they know that. So I think what happens with Auburn and Florida matters.”

If an in-season coaching change is made, Jones believes it would be after the Florida game, in part because of the increasing number of open jobs in college football and the race it creates for candidates. On Sunday, LSU fired Brian Kelly, bringing the total number of open Power 4 jobs to eight: Stanford, UCLA, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Penn State, Florida, and LSU. Auburn will likely join that list if/when it parts ways with Hugh Freeze.

“I don’t think it changes the final decision,” Jones said of the number of jobs open right now. “It might make them have to announce something early. I look at it like this: if they’re going to make an in-season change, it’ll happen after the Florida game. If they don’t do it after Florida, he’ll be here till the end of the year. That’s kind of how I see it. I would be very surprised if there’s an in-season change, but I don’t think it’s impossible for the first time.”

For more from Jones on the coaching situation, I’ll direct you to his post on KSBoard last night. There’s never been a better time to try KSR+ out. Make sure you’re locked in for what could be a crazy month.

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