Tennessee, Mississippi Schools the Key to a Successful Kentucky Football Season

Mark Stoops has propelled Kentucky up the SEC Football ladder by knocking down one door at a time. Everyone in the BBN knows the final boss in the SEC East is Georgia. To make the SEC regular season finale against the Dogs meaningful, Kentucky must take care of business in 50-50 games, more specifically, against Tennessee and the Mississippi schools.

Conquering the Lower Tier of the SEC East

The long climb up the SEC ladder starts at the bottom. After producing ho-hum results in the first three years of the Stoops era, since 2016 Kentucky is 16-2 against Missouri, South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Nine of those games were decided by one score or less and Kentucky won every single one of those games.

What was once the goal has now become the expectation, firmly placing the Wildcats in the SEC East’s second tier.

Kentucky Must Close Out Toss-Up Games

While Kentucky has controlled the bottom rung of the SEC, it has produced mixed results against three counterparts on the 2022 schedule. Since 2016 Kentucky is 5-10 against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Mississippi State. The home team has been the victor in each matchup with its cross-divisional foe, favoring the Wildcats this fall. The two losses to Ole Miss were by a combined four points, thanks to DK Metcalf’s late heroics and a botch PAT in overtime. The most recent two losses to Tennessee were by a combined seven points.

If you believe purely in statistics, the 50-50 games have evened out over time. Tennessee (9), Mississippi State (15) and Ole Miss (17) are all ranked just ahead of the Cats in the preseason SP+ rankings. Kentucky is on the same playing field as Tennessee and the Mississippi schools, likely leading to three more toss-up games in 2022.

The 2020 loss to Ole Miss prevented the Cats from finishing with a winning record in the pandemic-plagued, shortened season. A 2018 loss to Tennessee was the difference between a Citrus Bowl and a New Year’s Six appearance. You could say the same thing about last year’s losses to the Vols and Mississippi State. It’s clear that how Kentucky performs against these three this fall will determine the stakes of the Nov. 19 date with Georgia at Kroger Field.