Luckett's Locks: 10 ATS picks to start NCAA Tournament

The football gambling weekly wheelhouse is long gone and won’t return until Labor Day weekend. Luckily, college basketball gives us one good taste during a full weekend in March.

To end this week, we will be treated to some high-leverage basketball with many twists and turns. There is no better time to bet on the sport. After digging in on some key gambling factors to know heading into this week, it’s now time to make some picks.

Starting with the games in Dayton on Tuesday and stretching into first-round games, there is a lot of value to be found. Luckett’s Locks have returned for 10 plays to get the March Madness party started.

Pittsburgh (+2.5) vs. Mississippi State

We get a Power Five vs. Power Five matchup in Dayton on Tuesday night. Pittsburgh’s top-25 offense facing Mississippi State’s top-10 defense should make this a fun game. However, the Bulldogs have lost three out of six and needed some good fortune to survive Florida at the SEC Tournament. Pitt has been a cover machine this season (22-10-1 ATS) with an added day of rest.

The Panthers record their eighth outright upset of the season on Tuesday.

West Virginia (-2) vs. Maryland

In this No. 8 vs. No. 9 matchup, West Virginia enters the contest with an ugly record (19-14) but the Mountaineers have been battle-tested in the brutal Big 12. Meanwhile, Maryland is 1-3 in its last four games and just 5-11 away from College Park.

WVU is favored for a reason. Lay the points.

Charleston vs. San Diego State Under 141.5

Charleston enters the tournament at 31-3 as Pat Kelsey’s team will be one of the most popular No. 12 seeds in this year’s Big Dance. The Cougars draw Mountain West champ San Diego State who owns a top-10 defense. Charleston will want to push the pace, but the Aztecs are great at making opponents play their style of basketball.

Unders are 11-2 in San Diego State games with eight straight covers. Don’t overthink it. Play the under as this total is north of 140.

Illinois vs. Arkansas (-1.5)

In another No. 8 vs. No. 9 game, both Arkansas and Illinois struggle to make perimeter shots, but the Hogs are better at getting to the free throw line and force more turnovers. That should give Eric Musselman’s team an advantage who has a good track record in the NCAA Tournament since arriving in Fayetteville.

Lay the small number with the Hogs.

Auburn (-1) vs. Iowa

Auburn got a fortunate draw in the first weekend getting into the Birmingham pod. That should help the Tigers on Thursday. War Eagle matches up well with Iowa on defense and should be able to get to the rim off of the bounce on offense. That will lead to good things for the more athletic team.

Bruce Pearl gets Auburn back into the round of 32.

Penn State vs. Texas A&M (-3)

Two of the hottest teams in college basketball will meet in Des Moines after making it to their conference title games on Sunday. Texas A&M is 17-4 since SEC play started and Penn State finished 8-2 to lock up an at-large bid. However, the Aggies’ rebounding and team defense could cause the Nittany Lions some issues.

A&M is 10-2 ATS entering the tournament and gets another cover on Thursday night.

Vermont (+11) vs. Marquette

We will have a clash of styles in Columbus as Vermont is No. 314 in adjusted pace and Marquette ranks No. 13 in average offensive possession length. The Golden Eagles play in transition and shoot a lot of threes. The Catamounts grind out possessions and create efficient looks.

This feels like a good time to fade a hot Marquette team as Vermont has won 15 in a row, Shaka Smart has lost six consecutive NCAA Tournament games, and the Catamounts will control the pace on Friday.

NC State vs. Creighton (-5.5)

Despite sitting at 21-12, Creighton has great computer metrics. That is due to this team not having an outright win as an underdog this season. Good thing the Blue Jays are laying points to start the tournament.

Creighton has the better offense and defense in this matchup. Look for Greg McDermott’s team to win big on Friday.

Providence vs. Kentucky Over 145

Since the start of February, both Kentucky and Providence have top-30 offenses in adjusted efficiency, according to Bart Torvik. However, UK is No. 91 on defense and Providence is No. 209. Meanwhile, Kentucky overs are 9-3 in the last 12 outings and Providence overs are 6-1 in the last seven games.

Don’t overthink this. Play the over.

Grand Canyon vs. Gonzaga Over 156.5

Gonzaga is a wagon on offense. Take out games against Saint Mary’s top-10 defense and the Bulldogs have scored 80-plus points in 10 consecutive games reaching the 90s six times. Grand Canyon also has reached the 80s in six of its last nine outings. We’re getting buckets on Friday night.

Gonzaga overs are 8-1 in their last nine outings and that number gets bumped to 9-1 this weekend.