Preseason Top 25: Projecting what the poll should look like

The coaches poll was released last week, and it got many folks excited. For the first time ever, Kentucky appeared inside that ranking during the preseason. But that is not the granddaddy of them all when it comes to top 25 rankings.

The AP Top 25 has been around since 1936 and serves as a great historical reference guide when trying to calculate where programs stand in the history of this terrific sport. That poll will be released on Monday and serve as another reminder that college football is just around the corner.

Sportswriters from all over the country will put together their own list of rankings, and the AP will add all of those up on Monday as the important numbers placed by college names mark the beginning of another wild year. The expectation is that Kentucky will be in that group for the first time in the preseason since 1978.

Most pollsters will come up who they think the best college football teams are right now before a single game is played. I decide to it a little differently.

Yours truly has run through schedules and picked winners for every game in college football. From there I have projected records. Using those records is what I base my top 25 on. As this is a projection after all.

But enough of the small talk. Let’s get down to business. Here is how I foresee the college football season shaking out heading into conference championship weekend:

1.) Alabama Crimson Tide

Nick Saban has the best offensive player (Bryce Young) and defensive player (Will Anderson Jr.) in college football. The Crimson Tide project to have a vintage defense in Tuscaloosa, and transfers will need to deliver on offense. The schedule is tough but not too tough. The Tide have five road games against what could be top-25 competition, but Young will be the ultimate difference makers. Alabama runs the table and goes wire-to-wire entering December.

2.) Ohio State Buckeyes

Speaking of undefeated seasons, the path is there for Ryan Day’s program. Ohio State returns C.J. Stroud at quarterback, and he’s surrounded by a strong offensive line and NFL talent at the skill positions. The Buckeyes will again have the best offense in the country, and new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles will improve the defense. Four of the six toughest games on the slate — Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Michigan — all happen at Ohio Stadium. Ohio State makes its way back to the playoff.

3.) Georgia Bulldogs

Kirby Smart has a lot to replace, but this Georgia program has earned the benefit of the doubt. The Bulldogs have a top-five roster in college football, return their starting quarterback, should have one of the country’s best offensive lines, and have a top-five standard set on defense. That should lead to another big season against a very manageable schedule that doesn’t have a preseason top-10 team on it.

4.) Clemson Tigers

Some folks will snicker at this but let me explain myself. A bunch of stuff went wrong for Clemson last year, but the Tigers still found a way to win 10 games. There is now QB depth with five-star freshman Cade Klubnik on campus, and the injury luck has to improve for the offense. The Tigers have the best defensive front in college football and should contend with both Alabama and Georgia for the best defense in the country. A light non-conference schedule should create momentum. Home games against NC State and Miami should allow Clemson to get another ACC title and return to the playoff.

5.) Utah Utes

Do I think Utah is a top-five team in college football? No, but that’s not what this ranking is. The Utes have a good quarterback (Cam Rising) and will be giving him a strong rushing attack. The opener against Florida is very winnable plus USC and Oregon are in a first-year head coach transition. The Utes win their division again and make a run at 11 wins.

6.) Texas A&M Aggies

Folks love to rag on Jimbo Fisher, but the former Florida State head coach now has a top-five roster in college football. That hasn’t been true in College Station until now. The Aggies also have quarterback depth now and could have the top secondary in the country. With Miami, Ole Miss, and LSU all at home, this is a manageable slate that will get Fisher’s squad to 10-2 and in the New Year’s Six.

7.) Michigan Wolverines

Another coach that people love to hate, Jim Harbaugh is fresh off a Big Ten title and shouldn’t see much of a slide this year. Despite some coordinator turnover, Michigan has the personnel to be Harbaugh’s best offense in Ann Arbor, and the defense has some young players ready for stardom. Michigan gets both Penn State and Michigan State at home as the program has just four road games. The Wolverines should be playing Ohio State for a division title on Thanksgiving Saturday after another double-digit win season.

8.) Texas Longhorns

Perhaps my biggest swing occurs right here. The Big 12 is undergoing a transition, and I’m betting on the former No. 1 overall at quarterback teaming up with one of the best play-callers in football. Quinn Ewers and Steve Sarkisian should make a great pair Texas. The Longhorns have a lot of playmaking talent around him. The defense still has holes, and there should be exciting games. Texas returns to the Big 12 title game in December.

9.) Oklahoma Sooners

Brent Venables returns to Norman and has a roster going through a lot of turnover. But the Sooners still have top-10 talent. Offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby makes a lot of sense for Oklahoma, and he’ll be teaming up with Dillon Gabriel again after the worked together at UCF. This offense will put up points, and the defense will make some strides. In a rebuilding Big 12, that could be enough for 10 wins and another conference championship appearance.

10.) USC Trojans

One of my biggest hot takes heading into the year is that USC‘s roster situation is not as bad as you think. Add in a dynamite transfer class, and Lincoln Riley’s first team in Los Angeles will remain nationally relevant. USC has a good offensive line, and Oklahoma transfer Caleb Williams will post monster numbers at quarterback with Pittsburgh transfer Jordan Addison receiving a high volume of targets. Some key transfer adds should raise the floor for the defense. Against a light Pac-12, the Trojans will gobble up wins, reach 10-2, and be a darling heading into 2023.

11.) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman takes over at Notre Dame, and the recruiting results have been off the charts. But the Irish must win games first before thinking about the future. With 15 returning starters, this is a team that will be ready and able to transition through a coaching change. Road trips to Ohio State and USC bookend the schedule, and home date with Clemson is on Nov. 5. However, there are 7-8 wins that feel like locks. A 9-3 finish against a tough schedule would be a great debut for Freeman.

12.) Minnesota Golden Gophers

There is a slept-on team every year who rises up to win double-digit games and compete for a conference crown at the Power Five level. Minnesota will be that team this year. P.J. Fleck is in year six with the Gophers and returns 12 total starters off of last year’s 9-4 squad. With offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca the thought is that super senior Tanner Morgan could get back to peak performance. Add in a good offensive line, a potential All-American at tailback (Mohamed Ibrahim), a strong defense, and you have a Big Ten West contender. The Gophers do not draw Ohio State or Michigan on top of an easy non-con slate. Minnesota puts it all together and advances to the Big Ten Championship.

13.) Wisconsin Badgers

The team that Minnesota will have to hold off is in Madison. Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard is quickly turning into one of the best play-callers in college football and expectations are high despite just three starters returning off of a top-five defense. Baltimore Ravens assistant Bobby Engram is the new offensive coordinator and will need to upgrade the passing game. Regardless, pounding the rock comes first, and Braelon Allen should have a huge season. Wisconsin will be in the hunt for a division title once again.

14.) Kentucky Wildcats

As the season quickly approaches, many appear to be going into the fade Kentucky territory. However, there are clear signs that say you should avoid that. For the first time in the Mark Stoops era, UK enters the year with a legit dude at quarterback. Will Levis should have a very big season teamed up with what will be one of college football’s top running games. The defense is old and will play a lot of zone keeping big plays to minimum. Kentucky has a winning formula while other SEC schools are in more of a rebuilding situation. The Wildcats go 9-3 again and could host Georgia on Nov. 19 with the SEC East title on the line.

15.) Iowa Hawkeyes

There will be a heated race in the Big Ten West, and Iowa will once again be in the mix. Phil Parker might be the most underrated defensive coordinator in college football. He gets two All-American candidates back in linebacker Jack Campbell and cornerback Riley Moss making this a legitimate top-10 defense. But the questions are always on offense in Iowa City. Brian Ferentz is back calling plays for his father — head coach Kirk Ferentz — and it will likely be ugly, but there is some young skill talent you could talk yourself into. The Hawks draw both Michigan and Ohio State making a consecutive division title unlikely.

16.) Oklahoma State Cowboys

Mike Gundy might have the most consistent program in college football. Oklahoma State is fresh off its seventh double-digit win season in the last 12 years and has reasons for optimism in 2022. Spencer Sanders returns at quarterback as the Pokes are expected to make a big jump. Derek Mason is the new defensive coordinator in Stillwater, and he has some rebuilding to do. Gundy has deserved the benefit of the doubt as the offense should score points and create some fun games involving the Cowboys. Another run at 10 wins will be made in the bowl game.

17.) BYU Cougars

A legitimate playoff contender that no one is talking about calls Provo home. Kalani Sitake has built a legitimate football program as he’s 48-29 over six years and about to take BYU to the Big 12. The Cougars returns 11 starters on defense, have one of the sport’s best offensive line, and quarterback Jaren Hall is a bonafide NFL prospect. The schedule is tough with Arkansas, Baylor, Boise State, Notre Dame and Oregon all on the slate. BYU will beat some of those teams and make a run at a double-digit win season. If this squad got hot, they would be worthy of playoff consideration.

18.) Miami Hurricanes

Mario Cristobal enters year one at Miami, and the return of Tyler Van Dyke at quarterback gives the Hurricanes a high ceiling in 2022. There appears to be some legitimate NFL talent on defense, but this is a program that needs to rebuild at offensive line and wide receiver. The U will be fun and has an easy schedule outside of road trips to Clemson and Texas A&M. The Canes should gets some wins as Cristobal lays the foundation.

19.) NC State Wolfpack

Dave Doeren’s 10th team at NC State is the flavor of the month for many this season. That is largely due to the fact that folks think this team can win the ACC. With 10 starters returning off of a top-15 defense, that is understandable. But it is the offense that will hold them back. Devin Leary is a solid quarterback, but the Wolfpack have ground game issues and some big question marks on the offensive line. An inefficient offense will have some bad moments in what will ultimately be a good but disappointing season in Raleigh.

20.) North Carolina Tar Heels

The bad 2021 season is all anyone wants to talk about with North Carolina, but this is an ACC program that has just signed three consecutive top-20 recruiting classes with the last two falling inside the top-10. That talent will show up on the field this season in Chapel Hill. There are quality options at quarterback, and the defense should make big strides under Gene Chizik due to that talent. The Heels are a legit threat to contend for an ACC title, and Mack Brown’s squad gets both NC State and Notre Dame at home.

21.) UCLA Bruins

The time is now for Chip Kelly to have his breakthrough season at UCLA. You could argue that last year was it with an 8-4 campaign, but the home loss to Fresno State took some shine off of the Bruins. UCLA gets quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and tailback Zach Charbonnet. They’ll lead the way for what could be a top-10 offense. The defense has questions, but new defensive coordinator Bill McGovern could give the group a spark. An easy non-con slate has both USC and Utah coming to the Rose Bowl. Nine wins is firmly on the table for Kelly.

22.) UCF Knights

Gus Malzahn is ready to make a run at a conference title in year two at UCF. The Knights loaded up in the transfer portal and return a bunch of key pieces to a good defense. The offense should make strides after managing a bunch of injuries last season. The future Big 12 program gets Georgia Tech, Louisville, and Cincinnati all at the Bounce House. Meanwhile, UCF does not draw Houston. Expect a big year from Malzahn’s squad as this team has Power Five talent.

23.) Tennessee Volunteers

Josh Heupel is back for year two at Tennessee, and with super senior Hendon Hooker returning at quarterback the Vols could have a potential Heisman Trophy contender. Points will be scored on Rocky Top. However, there are legitimate defensive questions after this group could not stop anyone to close the season. With Alabama and Georgia on the schedule, UT could have a hard ceiling, but this program can take another step forward in 2022.

24.) Cincinnati Bearcats

Luke Fickell’s program lost a ton of talent to the NFL after their season ended in the College Football Playoff, but this program has been built to last. UC has a roster littered with potential all-conference performers and will again be very strong on the line of scrimmage. The Bearcats will push for 10 wins again.

25.) Houston Cougars

Dana Holgorsen had a breakthrough season at Houston last fall providing proof of concept. Houston finished the year 12-2 with a big win over Auburn in the Birmingham Bowl. Clayton Tune is one of the best quarterbacks in college football, and Tank Dell is an electric receiver. Doug Belk is a rising star at defensive coordinator who could put together another top-25 unit. Houston is back, and they’ll make some noise again this year.

Next Five

— LSU Tigers

— Penn State Nittany Lions

— Oregon Ducks

— Purdue Boilermakers

— Pittsburgh Panthers