Providence is much more on offense than just Bryce Hopkins

On3 imageby:Zack Geoghegan03/14/23

ZGeogheganKSR

There’s going to be a lot of Bryce Hopkins chatter between now and Friday night’s first-round matchup between Kentucky and Providence, but he’s hardly the only reason that the Friars made the NCAA Tournament for the second straight season. Head coach Ed Cooley has done an impressive job of bringing in quality transfer pieces after losing two key seniors from the 2021-22 group while also elevating the talent already on his roster.

Yes, Hopkins is the Friars’ star, leading the team in scoring while also making the All-Big East First Team, and his past relationship with Kentucky is going to control the narrative, but don’t sleep on his teammates. There are plenty of scoring threats spread around him. Providence is a middle-of-the-pack defensive group, but features a top-20 offense in all of college basketball, according to KenPom. Hopkins is the engine that has plenty of supporting parts locked into place to help make it all work.

During 20 Big East Conference games this season, Coach Cooley was able to use depth to his advantage. Seven Friars players saw more than 10 minutes per game during conference action, including two more with at least nine minutes per game. As the regular season began to wind down, Cooley utilized his bench even more, especially with 6-foot-10 Clifton Moore (the team’s tallest player), who averaged 12 minutes per game over his last five, including a 24-minute outing against Georgetown.

But Providence is run by its starting five, and it all starts in the backcourt with sophomore Devin Carter and senior Noah Locke, two 6-foot-3 guards that Kentucky fans might already be familiar with. Carter spent his freshman season at South Carolina before transferring while Locke was at Florida for three seasons and then at Louisville for one more before landing with Providence. Those two have been terrific all season long for Cooley, with Carter even being named an All-Big East Honorable Mention.

During conference play, Carter was second on the team in minutes with 34.1 per game while also averaging the second-most points (behind Hopkins) at 14.4 per outing. While he’s not the most efficient shooter with just a 32.0 percent clip from long range, Carter is one of 14 players in all Division I basketball to average at least 1.3 steals and 1.3 blocks per game, per Basketball-Reference. Just three guards — with Carter being the only one from a Power 6 program — met that criterion. But on offense, he’s just as reliable. Carter is a trustworthy passer who rarely turns the ball over. He posted 61 assists to just 27 turnovers during Big East games.

Meanwhile, Locke is Providence’s go-to sharpshooter. He went 45-109 (41.3 percent) from distance against Big East competition, squeezing off more than five per game. Locke isn’t going to step inside the arc as often as he will tend to stay behind it, but regardless of where he shoots from, the looks typically go in. He’s also an elite free throw shooter, although he hardly gets to the line enough to make him a legitimate threat. Kentucky will need to have tabs on Locke at all times.

Providence prefers to run the offense by committee with so many capable ball handlers, but if there is one player who would assume the title of point guard, it would be 5-foot-10 redshirt senior Jared Bynum, who played a similar role last season under Cooley. Bynum has a mostly pass-first approach but can knock down shots from deep when asked. In fact, he hit as many three-pointers (29) during Big East play as he did two-pointers. Bynum sat out a few weeks in January due to an abdominal strain but returned to his usual self once he came back. He’s been playing especially well entering the NCAA Tournament after averaging 13.2 points and 3.2 assists on efficient shooting over his last five contests.

6-foot-8 senior Ed Croswell rounds out the Providence starting five and is the most efficient scorer of the bunch. He put in 14.3 points and 8.3 rebounds per game against the Big East on 60.6 percent overall shooting. Croswell is a non-factor from deep, having just attempted two triples during conference play. But he’s an elite offensive rebounder, soaking up 14.7 percent of his team’s misses, which ranks first in the entire Big East. While Croswell has only shot 67.6 percent from the free-throw line, he gets there at a higher rate than any of his teammates.

To keep it simple, this is just a very well-disciplined Providence offense. The Friars rank second in the Big East in turnover percentage (16.2), second in offensive rebounding percentage (33.2), first in free-throw rate (37.0), and second in three-point percentage (37.0). Cooley’s team can score from all areas of the court with plenty of ball handlers to make it all happen. They roll out small-ball lineups and will hunt for mismatches.

But depth will also be key if Providence wants to make a Cinderella run in the NCAA Tournament. However, that’s where the Friars’ offensive prowess ends. Off the bench, Cooley has four different options at his disposal. One is the aforementioned Clifton Moore, who might get more run than usual against Kentucky just because of his 6-foot-10 frame. He’s not a high-usage player and struggles to score, but is an effective rebounder on both ends.

That leaves three guards, two of which are freshmen. 6-foot-3 junior Alyn Breed will likely be the first off the pine for Cooley, as he plays roughly half of the game for Providence every time out. He’ll be the least of Kentucky’s worries though, as he struggles to score the ball and is prone to turning the ball over. The two rookies off the bench, Jayden Pierre and Corey Floyd, will see anywhere from 5-15 minutes, with Floyd being the most susceptible to make an impact. Don’t expect too much from any of these three on offense though.

Providence’s offense will live and die by its starting five. The defense is questionable at times, but you can bet on the Friars’ putting up some points on an equally questionable Kentucky defense.

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2024-03-28