Red-hot Reds are Primed for MLB Playoffs
Once again, the rumors of the Cincinnati Reds’ demise were greatly exaggerated. The latest hot streak has the Reds in sole possession of a playoff spot with one month left in the season. Could this be the year they finally breakthrough?
Postseason odds increasing
I know, we’ve all seen this show before. Long-suffering Reds fans know all too well how it feels to see the team get their hopes up, only for everything to fall apart at the last moment. This year has been another up-and-down season for the Redlegs, as you could probably surmise from Matt Jones’ nightly tweets alone.
But these days, things are looking up. The Reds have won eight of 11, including a four-game sweep of the Marlins this weekend. And thanks to the Padres’ recent swoon, Cincinnati now sits alone in second place in the N.L. Wild Card standings. If they can hold on to that spot, it would mean a second consecutive postseason trip come October.
Even better, their odds of making the postseason eclipsed 50% for the first time all season on Friday:
As of Sunday night, the picture is even prettier: Fangraphs now has the Reds’ playoff odds at 63.7%, while FiveThirtyEight lists it at 66%. Baseball Reference gives them a postseason likelihood of 64.7%, which makes for a 51-point jump in the last 30 days; in the same span, the Padres chances have dropped by 62%.
Sure, the race is far from over. And like I said, we’ve seen worse collapses before. But these projections aren’t based on nothing. The biggest factor in the Reds’ favor right now is an incredibly easy schedule the rest of the way: 22 of Cincinnati’s last 34 games come against sub-.500 teams, and half the rest are against the middling Cardinals. The Padres, by contrast, have just three such games on their schedule the whole rest of the way.
Last week, The Ringer‘s Zach Kram crunched some numbers to find the true impact of each team’s remaining schedule on their playoff hopes. He found that the Reds had the biggest advantage of any National League team, and in the same metric, the Padres were easily worst.
So, the odds are good. But what can they do once they get there?
Not the same old Reds
You may be thinking, “So what? They’ll just fold again once they get there.” It’s true that last year’s team made the (albeit expanded) playoffs as well, only to get embarrassed by the Braves in a two-game shutout sweep. But this year’s Reds team is very different from last year’s.
In 2020, the Reds got where they did thanks to an elite starting rotation. Their offense and bullpen were, politely speaking, hot garbage. This is no longer the case. Led by a resurgent Joey Votto and brilliant seasons from Nick Castellanos and Jesse Winker, the Reds lineup is third-best in the league this year by WAR and wRC+. They’ve scored more runs, and have more RBIs, than any team not named the Dodgers. And that’s while still playing Eugenio Suarez nearly every day!
For its part, the bullpen is still far from ideal, but trade acquisition Mychal Givens has provided a boost — and so has winning. In the last week, Reds pitchers have produced the third-most WAR in the league with 1.2, just behind the Dodgers and Giants.
Much of the heavy lifting has been done by the rotation, which is still excellent despite losing Trevor Bauer to free agency. Wade Miley has been elite, and Tyler Mahle has been dominant at times; Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo have recovered from early struggles to do excellent work of late; and rookie Vladimir Gutierrez has been on an absolute tear. The Reds pitching is deep, and it’s poised to carry them into the playoffs once again — but hopefully, this time it won’t have to.
Discuss This Article
Comments have moved.
Join the conversation and talk about this article and all things Kentucky Sports in the new KSR Message Board.
KSBoard