Saturday Selections: Final Four, Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby

On3 imageby:Nick Roush04/01/23

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Sports gambling is finally coming to Kentucky, maybe even in time for the NFL season. Let’s celebrate by handicapping the biggest contests across the country, from the Final Four in Houston, to Hot Springs and South Florida for this weekend’s top thoroughbred races.

Final Four

San Diego State (-2.5) vs. Florida Atlantic, 6:09 pm, CBS

The Aztecs have covered in four straight contests on the road to the Final Four in Houston, but that is not the most reliable trend in play on Saturday. It’s difficult to forecast how each first-timer will perform on college basketball’s biggest stage. However, it’s easy to see a scenario where both teams struggle to find the bottom of the net while shooting in the cavernous NRG Stadium. On top of that, San Diego State loves to play in the mud. The Aztecs have hit the under in 12 straight contests. If it isn’t going to be pretty, might as well make a little money.

Pick: Under 131.5

UConn (-5.5) vs. Miami, 8:49 pm, CBS

UConn has covered in four straight games, and nine of their last ten, but I can’t in my heart of hearts ride with the Huskies and this stinky number. So let’s take some value.

A lesson I learned in 2021 could pay dividends here. Undefeated Gonzaga was the heavy favorite to take home the title. Baylor was the second choice, yet better than 4-1 odds to win the title ahead of the Final Four. They beat the brakes off the Zags for an easy winner, with the future wager paying more than twice as much as the moneyline.

The winner of this national semifinal will be the favorite in the National Championship Game. Miami is currently +200 ML Saturday night. If they stay hot, their guard play is good enough to knock off the Huskies and roll to a title over a G5 team. Let’s roll the dice and bet against the Huskies to win their fifth title in the last 25 years.

Pick: Miami to win the National Championship +475

Florida Derby

Forte is head and shoulders above the field, not just this Saturday, but his entire 3-year-old competition. Trying to beat this horse at Gulfstream Park is a fool’s errand. Instead, we’ll try to figure out who will finish second.

Throw out Dubyuhnell‘s awful performance in the Sam F. Davis, and this horse was posting numbers good enough to potentially knock off Forte. West Coast Cowboy has improved dramatically with each start, and has one of Gulfstream’s top trainers, Joseph Saffie, calling the shots.

Pick: Exacta Key 11 (Forte) over 2 (West Coast Cowboy), 9 (Cyclone Mischief), 12 (Dubyuhnell)

Arkansas Derby

Chris Hartman’s Two Eagles River has hit the board in every start and is consistently running speed figures in the 90s but is 10-1? Don’t mind if I do. Red Route One is another horse that’s out-raced its odds in all of its big races by hitting the board, ideal to play in a trifecta. Coming off an excellent stretch run at the Fair Grounds, let’s roll with Brad Cox’s Angel of Empire and the former Bob Baffert horse Reincarnate in a $12 trifecta that feels like a big ticket waiting to pop.

Pick: Win Bet Two Eagles River, Trifecta Box 10-8-6-4

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2024-03-28