Scouting Report: Louisville Cardinals

Rivalry week has arrived, and Kentucky will be making the trip down I-64 to take on Louisville on Saturday night.

There appears to be a lot on the line in this year’s version of the Governor’s Cup as Louisville has built up a ton of momentum in the last month of the season and appears to have the hottest player in college football.

A victory gives one side bragging rights and major momentum entering the offseason. A loss makes either side feel like the season was a missed opportunity. Stakes are here for the Governor’s Cup.

KSR is back to provide the lowdown on Scott Satterfield’s third team in the Derby City.

Let’s ride.

Nuts and Bolts

The 2018 season was a disaster for the Louisville football program, and the university needed a facelift after numerous scandals. With interim athletic director Vince Tyra going from fan to administration, it was his job to find the next guy to lead the Cards into the future.

His hire was approved and lauded by many in the industry. However, the fanbase has yet to truly buy in.

Scott Satterfield is ending year three at Louisville with an 18-17 record. The offenses have been excellent since the former Appalachian State head coach made the move to the ACC, but the defense has taken time to build up. Poor close game results have made the record look worse than it really should be.

Attendance hasn’t been great at Cardinal Stadium for most of the Satterfield era, and it’s clear the fanbase did not appreciate the public flirtation that went on with South Carolina last year during their coaching search. However, momentum is building after three consecutive good home performances and a bunch of points being put on the scoreboard in the last two weeks.

UofL is peeking at the right time, and Saturday will be a huge game for that program. It’s a proof of concept moment for Satterfield and his staff. A win gets Louisville to 7-5 with offseason momentum to ride and a ton of guys returning. A loss has them at 6-6, and without a true signature win in his first three years.

Saturday night is huge for Louisville football.

The two rivals are set to meet for the 33rd time in series history with Kentucky owning a 17-15 series lead. The Power Five programs have met every year since 1994 with the Cardinals owning a 15-11 lead since the rebirth. Kentucky is 6-5 in games played at Cardinal Stadium.

Out in the desert, Louisville is a three-point favorite with a total of 57. That’s a projected final score of 30-27. Louisville is 1-2 against the spread (ATS) as a home favorite this season, and Kentucky is 1-1 ATS as a road underdog. Mark Stoops owns a 4-2-1 ATS record in the rivalry with an unblemished 3-0 mark at Cardinal Stadium. The favorite has covered three straight since Kentucky’s upset win in 2016.

Louisville offense

Scott Satterfield calls the plays for the Cardinals, and the former App State quarterback is legitimately one of the best play-callers in college football. Operating out of the pistol and shotgun, UofL uses an outside zone offense combined with heavy motion and option looks to give the defense multiple looks to digest. Misdirection is the name of the game, and the unit collects yards in bunches.

The Cardinals have ranked in the top 20 in yards per play offense each year under Satterfield, and this year’s edition appears to be his best at Louisville. Having a third-year starter at quarterback turning into a superstar over the last month of the season has allowed UofL to score points and win games.

Malik Cunningham (No. 3) was a high three-star recruiting win out of Alabama for Bobby Petrino who would play two seasons at Louisville before Satterfield came to town. The dual-threat quarterback has been the starter since 2019 and has gotten better each season.

As a redshirt sophomore, Cunningham led all Power Five quarterbacks in yards per attempt (11.5). In 2020, the 6-1 quarterback rushed for over 600 yards and passed for 20 touchdowns. As a redshirt senior, Cunningham has put it all together.

The veteran is averaging 8.7 yards per attempt and has 18 touchdown passes. However, most of the damage is occurring on the ground.

The quarterback has been one of the most efficient rushers in college with a 54.9 percent rushing success rate on 12.1 non-sack carries per game. Cunningham has rushed for 933 yards leading all FBS quarterbacks. His 18 rushing touchdowns lead the Power Five. Louisville is two wins short of Cunningham being a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate.

Corralling him and getting the effective rusher and passer on the ground is the ultimate goal for every defense.

Satterfield’s offense leans heavily on outside zone rush concepts. The effectiveness of this staple play is the main reason his offenses at both Appalachian State and Louisville have been productive. The running back position produced a 1,000-yard rusher every year at App State, and Javian Hawkins went for a running back school record of 1,525 yards in 2019.

However, the Cardinals will be without a 1,000 yard rusher at tailback for the second year in a row.

Louisville running backs are recording 24.9 rush attempts per game, but the numbers are very inefficient. Redshirt sophomore Jalen Mitchell (No. 15) and true freshman Trevion Cooley (No. 23) have combined to collect just a 36.7 percent success rate with just 24 rushes over 10-plus yards. The most popular concept in the offense has had issues all season. That is usually a recipe for disaster, but Louisville has been able to rush for 217.4 yards per game due to the explosiveness of Cunningham who has 36 rushes of 10-plus yards.

In the passing game, Cunningham does a good job of distributing the football to multiple receivers. The Cardinals have four players with over 20 receptions and five players with 30-plus targets. Louisville has one of the most balanced passing attacks in college football.

Former walk-on Marshon Ford (No. 83) leads the team in targets (59) and receptions (41) from his tight end position. The versatile weapon is Cunningham’s favorite target, and Satterfield does a good job creating matchups for the hybrid player. On the outside, former Kentucky commit Jordan Watkins (No. 1) has a 56.9 percent receiving success rate on 51 targets as the sophomore leads the team in receiving yards (523) with 14 grabs of 15-plus yards.

However, the most dangerous player is the offense’s least efficient option. Tyler Harrell (No. 8) is a speedster from South Florida who Louisville makes a concerted effort to target on vertical routes. The playmaking ability is off the charts.

Harrell has caught less than half of his 30 targets this season, but nine receptions have gone for 15-plus yards. The deep threat is averaging over 30 yards per catch and has seven receptions of 25-plus yards. Defenses must be aware of his location at all times.

On the line of scrimmage, Louisville has quietly built a strong offensive line. Left guard Caleb Chandler (No. 55) is one of the best guards in the country. At center, super senior Cole Bentley (No. 66) has played a lot of football, and Virginia Tech transfer Bryan Hudson (No. 61) is a valuable piece off the bench. The line does a great job keeping Cunningham clean in pass protection, and that has allowed the offense to create explosive plays.

The offense does a great job protecting the rock and hasn’t lost a turnover in November. However, in losses, the Cardinals have had issues finishing drives. The offense is putting up just 3.33 points per scoring opportunity in those games as opposed to 5.39 points per scoring opportunity in wins.

Louisville has issues in the red area and that appears to be the top way to stop this attack.

Louisville defense

Defensive coordinator Bryan Brown is in his third season calling the defense for Louisville, and the 38-year-old has had a tough job to this point. The Cardinals did not inherit much from the previous staff on this side of the ball and have had to slowly build their 3-3-5 hybrid defense.

Since Satterfield and the coaching staff arrived, Louisville has hit up junior colleges and the transfer portal to find some bodies to play on defense. In 2021, Louisville has three total transfers starting, and two former walk-ons have major roles in the front seven. The Cardinals are attempting to plug holes.

Brown is fielding his best defense to date this season, but this is a unit that still has some legitimate holes.

The first thing that jumps out when looking at Louisville is just the lack of size along the line of scrimmage. The defense does not have a defensive line player over 290 pounds, and outside of nose tackle the contributors are between 255-265 pounds.

The front’s job is to eat up blocks and not make a bunch of plays. The unit does a good job of that as Brown will play 8-9 players along the front. Junior college transfer Yaya Diaby (No. 6) is the best of the bunch, and he leads the unit in tackles (27) and sacks/QB hurries (8.5).

In any defense with a three-down front, the hybrid EDGE player is going to be extremely important. Playing to the weakside of the formation, this player must be a havoc creator. Defenses need sacks and run stuffs from their guys at outside linebacker.

Yasir Abdullah (No. 22) provides production, and the South Florida product is the best player on this defense.

The former mid three-star recruit leads the team in tackles for loss (13.5) and sacks (9). The 235-pound edge rusher is very twitchy making him the most explosive defensive player on the field. When Louisville goes to pressure packages, Kentucky must get Abdullah blocked.

Elsewhere on the second level, super senior C.J. Avery (No. 9) holds it down at Mike linebacker. The former four-star recruit out of Mississippi leads the team in tackles (78) and snaps played. The veteran is pivotal to this group’s success.

Former walk-on and Lexington (Ky.) Catholic product Jack Fagot (No. 38) plays the Nickel/Sam position for the Cardinals, and the 195-pound hybrid player has been very productive with 58 tackles and 4.5 tackles for loss.

In the secondary, Louisville had a pair of gaping holes to fill at safety. The Cardinals decided to plug them in the transfer portal.

Georgia Southern transfer Kenderick Duncan (No. 27) has stepped in with 70 tackles, five pass breakups/interceptions, and three tackles for loss in over 700 snaps played. At 6-3 and 225 pounds, the senior is a legit NFL Draft prospect who UofL will roll into the box in both Cover 1 and Cover 3 to give the Cardinals an extra run defender.

At deep safety, Alcorn State transfer Qwynnterrio Cole (No. 12) will be playing his final game on senior day and the 6-3 defensive back has also flashed playmaking ability with six pass breakups and four tackles for loss.

The secondary was the biggest position of strength for this Louisville defense until the Cardinals lost cornerback Kei’Trel Clark for the season. The Liberty transfer has 24 passes defended (19 pass breakups, 4 interceptions) in 18 career games at Louisville. The Cardinals really miss his disruption.

Chandler Jones (No. 2) and Greedy Vance (No. 21) have played a lot all season and have made competitive plays with 14 pass breakups, but neither has an interception this season. Louisville will put their guys on the perimeter in tight coverage and ask their players to make plays. Without Clark, more playmaking opportunities are available for offenses.

Quietly, the run defense has taken a major step forward in recent weeks for Louisville. No offense has reached 200 yards rushing on this group since September with both Virginia and NC State being held under 50 yards. Last week against Duke was the first time an opposing offense reached over five yards per rush in six games.

However, the play-by-play data tells us these numbers might just be a little skewed. Against Power Five opponents, foes are collecting a 45.9 percent success rate. That is a solid efficiency number. Meanwhile, top-50 offenses are averaging 35.4 points per game against this defense with each going for at least six yards per play.

Louisville has done a good job beating down some bad or one-dimensional offenses, but against some top competition, this unit has struggled to create stops.

Louisville special teams

In the third phase, Louisville has been more than solid. Despite some inefficiencies in the kicking game, the Cardinals are getting some strong special teams play.

On kickoffs, Louisville has just a 38.6 percent touchback rate, but that is likely by design. The Cardinals trust their kick coverage team and that has shown up as foes are averaging less than 22 yards per return.

Australian Mark Vassett is averaging just 42 yards per punt, but 17 of his 43 attempts have been downed inside the 20 with just one touchback. Teamed with a punt coverage team that is allowing just 5.6 yards per return, Louisville can flip the field with the punting game.

At placekicker, James Turner is 14 of 20 on the season with a pair of missed PATs. Five of those field goal misses have come from 40-plus yards with Turner being 0 of 3 from 50-plus.

Jordan Watkins serves as the punt returner, but the sophomore has just one return of 25-plus yards this season. Louisville lost Hassan Hall to the transfer portal and he has been missed as he was an effective kickoff return specialist. Speedster Tyler Harrell is getting those opportunities now but has yet to bust a big one.

The special teams are strong for Louisville in 2021.

Keys to Victory

• Louisville is a big-play offense that thrives on chunk plays. Kentucky is a big-play prevention defense that wants to make offenses earn touchdowns. The Wildcats rank No. 16 nationally in 20-plus yard plays allowed (38) as only Tennessee has been able bust through for 50-plus yard gains. If Brad White’s defense can hold steady against Malik Cunningham, it could be hard for Louisville to consistently score touchdowns due to this offense ranking 88th nationally in success rate.
• Balanced offenses have given Louisville issues all season. Kentucky might be the most balanced one the Cardinals have seen since the opener against Ole Miss. Virginia is very pass-heavy, NC State struggles to run the ball, and Kentucky is more efficient on the ground than Wake Forest. Add in the best offensive line that the Cardinals have faced this season, and Liam Coen’s offense figures to be a challenge for Bryan Brown’s defense. The Wildcats should be able to establish the run and create explosives in the play-action passing game. The opportunities for points should be there all game for the Kentucky offense.
• We can’t get out of here without talking about turnovers. Louisville hasn’t had a turnover in a month, and the defense has forced multiple takeaways four times this season. Kentucky needs to find a way to play this to a draw. Accomplish that, and the Wildcats will have an advantage.
• Rivalry games are filled with emotion, but winning football games will always be about execution. That will be very important when scoring opportunities arrive. Both Louisville and Kentucky will have success moving the chains, but finishing drives with points will determine the winner. For the season, UK is scoring 4.82 points per scoring opportunity and UofL is at 4.45 points. On defense, UK is allowing 3.75 points per scoring opportunity and UofL is at 4.08. Kentucky appears to have an advantage and that needs to hold.
• Throughout the season, Louisville has been excellent at starting games and coming out prepared after halftime. The Cardinals are outscoring foes 214-129 in the first half and 70-31 in the third quarter. However, things have fallen apart in the final 15 minutes with foes winning 110-78. Depth probably has a lot to do with this as a rebuilding program is trying to learn how to win. Against both Clemson and Virginia, Satterfield’s program blew a pair of double-digit leads in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, Kentucky is outscoring foes 89-59 in the final quarter, and Mark Stoops is 19-9 in one-score games since 2016. If this comes down to the wire, Kentucky appears to have an edge.
• Kentucky’s defense has not given up more than 171 yards rushing in a game this season. Louisville’s offense has rushed for 170-plus yards in 6 of their last 7 games. Opposing offenses have typically opted to go pass-heavy against Kentucky, but that is not in Louisville’s DNA. The Cards are a run-first approach, and that should not change on Saturday. If the UK defense can limit UofL’s ground attack, the Wildcats could force this offense to play out of its comfort zone.