Luckett's Ballot: SEC order of finish

On3 imageby:Adam Luckett07/22/22

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The talking season wrapped up on Thursday afternoon in Atlanta. It’s time to get into football mode as the 2022 college football season is just over a month away. But let’s touch on one more item first.

Votes were tabulated at the College Football Hall of Fame as media members throughout the SEC footprint gave their predictions for the year. Yours truly was unable to make the trip this year, but that’s not stopping me from making some predictions.

After issuing preseason teams for both offense and defense, we’re jumping into the order of finish as we head into the year. There will be two familiar teams facing off in Atlanta for the SEC Championship.

SEC West

  • 1.) Alabama
  • 2.) Texas A&M
  • 3.) Mississippi State
  • 4.) Arkansas
  • 5.) LSU
  • 6.) Ole Miss
  • 7.) Auburn

Alabama has won 6 of the last 8 SEC titles, and Nick Saban’s squad will once again be the heavy favorite as the Tide have the best roster in the conference. Bryce Young might be QB1 in college football, and Bama is stacked on defense. Drawing Vanderbilt in the rotational cross-divisional matchup makes the slate very manageable. There are some worries — offensive tackle, star power at receiver — but there is way more good than bad, and Saban will bring home another SEC title. The Tide and Ohio State enter the year as the clear two best teams on paper.

— There are lot of unknowns with Texas A&M, and it starts at quarterback. However, there are plenty of four-star options to choose from for Jimbo Fisher. Outside of that, the Aggies have signed four consecutive top-10 recruiting classes per average star rating, and that should show up on the field this season. The Aggies are strong on the line of scrimmage, have good depth, and could have an elite secondary. A 10-2 year with a New Year’s Six trip feels likely. This team could be a year away from being a preseason SEC favorite.

— If you’re asking me to provide one sleeper team it would be Mississippi State. The Bulldogs should be an efficiency machine on offense with junior Will Rogers back at quarterback and a bunch of skill talent players who have played a boatload of snaps entering year three in the system. However, the defense is raising the ceiling in 2022. Defensive coordinator Zach Arnett could field a top-20 defense, and the Bulldogs have star power at all three levels. State gets both Georgia (Nov. 12) and Texas A&M (Oct. 1) at home and could easily play spoiler at Davis-Wade Stadium. Mike Leach gets to 8-4 and has his breakthrough at Mississippi State this fall.

— Arkansas has stability entering year three under Sam Pittman and that will lead to another good year. There are skill talent worries, but the Hogs have a strong offensive line and KJ Jefferson will provide strong dual-threat QB play. The defense is re-tooling with some transfers, but play-caller Barry Odom is one of the best in the business. The Hogs post a .500 conference record for the second season in a row.

— Brian Kelly enters year one at LSU and there is a low bar to clear early. Similar to Texas A&M, the Tigers need an answer at quarterback but there is good depth available from solid recruiting. The new staff added a ton of transfers to supplement the roster as this is a major transition year with a tough schedule. Getting to 7-5 or 8-4 seems most likely. Taking care of Florida State in the opener will be essential to prevent the year from getting off the rails early.

— Speaking of the transfer portal, Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss leaned all the way in this offseason. The Rebels could start as many as 12 transfers this season, and this high number creates a large window of possibilities. However, the quarterback situation was a concern leaving the spring, and that’s a big deal in this offensive attack. Add in some coordinator turnover on both sides, and this feels like a reset year at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. A 5-7 season feels very possible.

Auburn is going to Auburn. Things just don’t look good for Bryan Harsin, but he is doubling down on what created success for him at Boise State, and that could give the Tigers a chance at surprising. However, the passing game doesn’t appear to have much, and this won’t be one of the better defenses in the SEC. That should lead to a disappointing season on the Plains.

SEC East

  • 1.) Georgia
  • 2.) Kentucky
  • 3.) Tennessee
  • 4.) South Carolina
  • 5.) Florida
  • 6.) Missouri
  • 7.) Vanderbilt

— Kirby Smart has signed four consecutive top-five recruiting classes at Georgia according to average star rating. The Bulldogs have a lot of firepower to replace, but there are many high-quality options waiting in the wings. UGA will be getting tight end heavy as the defense plugs in a bunch of new pieces. A very manageable schedule — Auburn and Mississippi State out of the West — will give UGA a great shot at running the table even if the team takes a very noticeable step back on the field.

— Mark Stoops has built one of the most consistent programs in the conference, and this year Kentucky has a legit playmaker at quarterback. Expectations are high for Will Levis, and the thought in Lexington is that the NFL prospect will help raise the ceiling in 2022. Thanks to that and strong stability with a winning identity, Kentucky has a legit shot at 9-10 wins and a top-15 finish.

— Expectations are high on Rocky Top as Josh Heupel coached the best 7-6 team in college football last season. Super senior Hendon Hooker returns at quarterback, and his efficiency in vertical shot play offense makes the Vols scary. However, there appear to be real defensive issues as the Vols are still trying to add depth. Things could be up and down for Tennessee this year, but this will be a fun team that scores a lot of points. That doesn’t typically lead to a double-digit win season with a schedule that includes Alabama, Georgia, and a road trip to LSU.

South Carolina was the flavor of the week at SEC Media Days, and many folks are big believers in Shane Beamer. Some key offensive transfer portal additions have raised expectations significantly. However, this is still a team with holes that must win its fair share of close games to get to the postseason. Effort level was this group’s greatest strength last year and that should continue. The Gamecocks will get at least one big upset on their way to another bowl appearance.

— Billy Napier appears to have a real plan at Florida, but the former Louisiana head coach needs some time. The style of play will be different as the Gators rebuild and that could lead to some growing pains. Having redshirt sophomore Anthony Richardson raises the ceiling, but there are big questions to answer on defense, and the Gators appear to have one of the least explosive wide receiver units in the SEC. That could lead to a very middling season against a difficult schedule.

— After being a trendy pick at this time last year, Missouri has fallen back to the bottom after a losing season in 2021. There is still a QB battle brewing, plus Eliah Drinkwitz is on his fourth defensive coordinator in four years as a head coach. Expectations are low, and another losing record could be in the cards. However, the Tigers just inked a top-15 recruiting class, and some good moments from some blue-chip rookies could give Drinkwitz’s staff something to hang their hat on moving forward.

— It’s year two on the West End for Clark Lea. Vanderbilt still has a long way to go. However, the Commodores will have more pieces this season and that should make them competitive in some more games. This is still the worst team in the SEC, but that long conference losing streak should come to an end in 2022.

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2024-03-28