After yesterday's blowout loss in Gainesville, Kentucky's odds to win the SEC Tournament understandably took a tumble.
But just how much of a hit did the Cats sustain yesterday? Well, by using one of the internet's most reliable rating systems and Bill James' Log5 method for game prediction, we can see Kentucky's exact odds to win the annual conference clash. I calculated the odds using Ken Pomeroy's data and figured out round-by-round win probabilities for every team in the SEC.
[caption id="attachment_153669" align="alignnone" width="600"]
data via Kenpom.com[/caption]
As you can obviously see, Florida is the overwhelming favorite to take home the conference tournament crown with nearly a 50% chance to win. The data gives Tennessee, the tournament's 4 seed, the second best chance to win the tournament with a 20% probability. Kentucky, though fairly far back in the ratings compared to Tennessee, has a nearly the same chance to win the SEC Tournament as do the Vols.
Our 17% chance to win the title is largely due to the weakness of teams on our side of the bracket. Of course, our recent struggles guarantee absolutely nothing. Other than Florida, Tennessee, and Kentucky, no other team has a very realistic shot at winning the annual conference tournament. Of course, anything could happen as
Ole Miss only had a 4% chance to win in 2013.
After yesterday's blowout loss in Gainesville, Kentucky's odds to win the SEC Tournament understandably took a tumble. But just how much of a hit did the Cats sustain yesterday? Well, by using one of the internet's most reliable rating systems and Bill James' Log5 method for game prediction, we can see Kentucky's exact odds to win the annual conference clash. I calculated the odds using Ken Pomeroy's data and figured out round-by-round win probabilities for every team in the SEC.
[caption id="attachment_153669" align="alignnone" width="600"]
data via Kenpom.com[/caption]
As you can obviously see, Florida is the overwhelming favorite to take home the conference tournament crown with nearly a 50% chance to win. The data gives Tennessee, the tournament's 4 seed, the second best chance to win the tournament with a 20% probability. Kentucky, though fairly far back in the ratings compared to Tennessee, has a nearly the same chance to win the SEC Tournament as do the Vols. Our 17% chance to win the title is largely due to the weakness of teams on our side of the bracket. Of course, our recent struggles guarantee absolutely nothing. Other than Florida, Tennessee, and Kentucky, no other team has a very realistic shot at winning the annual conference tournament. Of course, anything could happen as Ole Miss only had a 4% chance to win in 2013.
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