Taking A Look At Kentucky Baseball's Postseason Chances
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UK Athletics[/caption]
Two weeks ago, Kentucky was preparing to host a regional for the second consecutive season. But four consecutive losses to end their season have dropped the BatCats to the bubble. The biggest of those four losses came in the first round of the SEC Tournament to Auburn. By losing the first game of the tournament, UK no longer controls their own destiny. The Cats will head home and hope that their total body of work gets them into the field of 64.
UK's recent losses have given the selection committee a difficult decision. On one hand, the Cats have five wins against the RPI top five, including a road series win over Georgia and a series win over Texas Tech at home. The Cats have 16 wins against teams ranked in the top 50 in RPI. The strength of schedule is there as well as an impressive 21-4 record outside of the SEC. The factor that will play against UK is their 13-18 conference record.
When talking about teams that were penalized for poor conference records, it is impossible not to mention the 2016 North Carolina Tar Heels. UNC finished in the top 20 in RPI and recorded a 34-21 record over the course of the season. The Tar Heels fell short of the NCAA Tournament after finishing with a 13-17 record in the ACC. The 2018 UK team has an eerily similar resume as the 2016 UNC team. If the selection committee looks at UNC as a precedent, the Cats could find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble thanks to their conference record.
In the eyes of UK's head coach, the Cats should not be penalized because the SEC was so strong this season. In an impassioned speech following his team's loss to Auburn, Mingione said that "I don’t believe anyone in our league should be punished for how good it is. I think our RPI speaks for itself and then our wins that we’ve been able to accomplish speak for itself.”
UK Athletics[/caption]
Two weeks ago, Kentucky was preparing to host a regional for the second consecutive season. But four consecutive losses to end their season have dropped the BatCats to the bubble. The biggest of those four losses came in the first round of the SEC Tournament to Auburn. By losing the first game of the tournament, UK no longer controls their own destiny. The Cats will head home and hope that their total body of work gets them into the field of 64.
UK's recent losses have given the selection committee a difficult decision. On one hand, the Cats have five wins against the RPI top five, including a road series win over Georgia and a series win over Texas Tech at home. The Cats have 16 wins against teams ranked in the top 50 in RPI. The strength of schedule is there as well as an impressive 21-4 record outside of the SEC. The factor that will play against UK is their 13-18 conference record.
When talking about teams that were penalized for poor conference records, it is impossible not to mention the 2016 North Carolina Tar Heels. UNC finished in the top 20 in RPI and recorded a 34-21 record over the course of the season. The Tar Heels fell short of the NCAA Tournament after finishing with a 13-17 record in the ACC. The 2018 UK team has an eerily similar resume as the 2016 UNC team. If the selection committee looks at UNC as a precedent, the Cats could find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble thanks to their conference record.
In the eyes of UK's head coach, the Cats should not be penalized because the SEC was so strong this season. In an impassioned speech following his team's loss to Auburn, Mingione said that "I don’t believe anyone in our league should be punished for how good it is. I think our RPI speaks for itself and then our wins that we’ve been able to accomplish speak for itself.”
Mingione is not wrong. The SEC was a bloodbath in 2018. Only five teams finished with a record above .500 in SEC play this season. 2018 was one of the toughest, most-talented years in the SEC. The level of talent from top to bottom in the conference could aid UK's case. There was not a conference close to the SEC in talent this season, and UK did win three series against teams in the top seven in the league. By losing to Auburn, UK lost the chance to even out their conference record in the SEC Tournament. The Cats failed to help their case in their conference tournament, so they now will rely on other teams losing across the country. Some notable teams to keep an eye on this week are Washington, Illinois, Louisiana Tech, and any potential bid stealers in the OVC, Southland, American, or Conference USA. Of the aforementioned bubble teams, UK's resume blows them all away. There aren't many strong bubble teams this season. UK's total body of work is miles ahead of every team that is on the bubble right now. In fact, UK is one of two teams ranked in the top 25 in RPI that is not a one or two seed in D1 Baseball's latest projections. This is a new position for this group. One year ago, the Cats were playing for a national seed and preparing to host the school's first regional since 2006. The last week of the season has put UK in a position that they will have to scoreboard watch and pray they make the cut over the remaining bubble teams. If the selection committee looks at the Cats' season as a whole and compares it to other potential at-large teams in the country, UK should land in the field of 64. But the 13-18 SEC record hangs over the team's head like a dark cloud. The BBN will anxiously wait until next Monday to know the fate of the BatCats. The Selection Show will be broadcast at noon ET on ESPNU..@Coach_Mingione dropping knowledge. #facts pic.twitter.com/QuBXUDqheP
— Kentucky Baseball (@UKBaseball) May 23, 2018
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