The Results and The Why: How I Analyze Defense

On3 imageby:Freddie Maggard02/05/23

I used to be known as a numbers guy. My work was, and still remains to an extent, based around knowing and understanding football statistics. My analysis mainly entailed applying stats while practically describing the defense in an understandable manner. I’m confident and honest enough to admit that the game has passed me by in some ways. I don’t understand, nor do I care to, regurgitate advanced analytics. It’s a bit too much for me and I remain steadfast in believing that experience, gut feelings, and understanding the game is more effectual than relying on a computer to spit out strategy or influence critical in-game decisions. 

I’m a simple man and that is reflective in my work. Today, I mainly write about my experiences, thoughts, and understanding of the college football game from my lens as a former player, fan, season ticket holder, staff member, coach, and as a member of the media. But, I still dabble in numbers and thought I’d share how I break down the defensive side of the football on a quiet Sunday morning. There are two subcategories that I focus on during my game-week preparation. They are: The Results and the Why. 

The “Results” is a basic, yet descriptive, form of analyzation that focuses on four basic statistical categories. That study provides a broad stroke explanation of overall defensive efficacy. Combining these basic stat lines is an easy manner to accurately paint a picture of the unit’s predictive outcome as well as past performance. 

Let’s use the 2022 Kentucky defense’s season totals for this practical exercise. 

The Results

There are four major statistical categories that I hand-write in a notebook on Sundays during the season. Hand-writing is vital and is considered an ancient method in 2023. The stat lines are always in the same specific order. The order is as important as the numbers and acts as a recollection tool. 

To be completely honest, my memory isn’t as good as it was when I started my writing career. Maybe it’s because I’m getting older. Perhaps is the lingering effects of multiple concussions. Who knows. Let’s get back to the important stuff. 

I’m an old Army guy. Acronyms are a part of my life just like they were decades ago. SRPT is my go-to when breaking down a football team. That stands for Score, Rush, Pass, Total. These four basic categories analyze the overbearing result of the defense’s body of work. 

Score

Kentucky Defense 2022 Points Allowed Per Game: 19.2

This category is self-explanatory. It’s the average points allowed per game. UK finished the season ranked third in the SEC and tied for 11th in the nation in this category. Football, much like all sports, is scoreboard focused. The goal is to win the game.  I’d argue that this is by far the most important category. The Cats’ defense gave the team a chance to win on a weekly basis. 

Rush

Rush Yards Allowed Per Game: 140.6

Again, what you see is what you get. UK ranked sixth in the SEC vs. the run. 

Pass

Yards Allowed Per Game: 170.8

This was a point of strength. Kentucky ranked second in the SEC and seventh nationally against the pass. 

Total 

Total Yards Allowed Per Game: 311.4

This is the combination of rush and pass yards allowed per contest. The Total category is one I tend to lean on most when providing a summation of the Cats’ defense. Brad White’s group ranked second in the SEC and twelfth in the county in this classification.  

Kentucky football quarterback sack vs louisville
Photo by Dr. Michael Huang | Kentucky Sports Radio

The Why 

The “Why” is where I add additional categories to my basic “SRPT” list in order to better explain the outcome in a more specific detail. I simply ask myself, “Why was UK so good vs. the pass in 2022?” and add on supporting numerical documentation. Let’s get into it. 

Scoring Defense

Why did Kentucky only allow 19.2-points per game? First, I take a look at the Red Zone touchdowns allowed. This breaks down how many touchdowns UK gave up when the opponent had the football inside the Cat’s twenty-yard line. Kentucky allowed 18 touchdowns compared to 9 field goals in the Red Zone. UK’s 54% in the money territory was a solid number and ranked sixth in the SEC. In other words, Kentucky was good, but not great inside the twenty. This is odd given the total scoring number. 

Vs. the Run

The total yards per game allowed was 140.6. One of the more specific statistics that I look for in this category is yards allowed per rushing attempt. The Cats gave up 4.2 per carry. That number listed at 7th in the conference and is again good, but not great. Brad White’s defense is known to bend, but not break and reflected in this amount.  This is an area that needs to improve in 2023. UK surrendered 16 rushing touchdowns. 16 allowed rushing TD’s ranked fifth in the league. 

“Fumbles Recovered” is another number that I study. This is not forced fumbles, but actual recovered turnovers. UK recovered six fumbles in 2022. That sum was low and ranked 12th in the SEC. “Tackles for Loss” or TFLs are also important vs. the run. The Cats finished last in the league with 54. Bringing the rush category together, UK’s lack of TFLs significantly impacted its 4.2 yards allowed per carry and an area of importance going into 2023. 

Additionally, I add in “Third Down Defense” in the rush category. Not sure why because it’s based on vs. the run and pass, but I do. UK allowed 33.3% third down conversions in 2022. 57 out of 171 which was good enough for third in the SEC and 21st in the nation. So, UK was stout on third down but didn’t recover a high number of fumbles or tackle the ball carrier beyond the line of scrimmage. This tells me that the Cats were a great tackling team and that they were situationally strong. This is a sign of good coaching and player development. 

Zion childress Ls Down
Photo by Dr. Michael Huang | Kentucky Sports Radio

Vs. the Pass

The Cats finished second in the SEC and seventh in the nation vs. the pass. Most all numbers in this category are superb. I tend to lean on the “Yards per attempt” category here. Remember, that’s not yards per pass completed, but yards per attempted pass. There’s a big difference between the two. UK gave up 6.4 yards per pass which ranked third in the SEC. The low number reflects White’s usage of mainly zone defenses and a pass defense that didn’t give up explosive plays. 

There are three additional numbers I look for vs. the pass. They are “Passes Defended” QB sacks, and interceptions. Kentucky intercepted ten passes in 2022 which was 6th best in the SEC. Twenty QB sacks was a low total, good enough for 11th in the league. This number is somewhat misleading as Brad White’s scheme is based more on pressures than sacks. The ultimate goal is to get the opposing QB to the ground, but getting in the signal caller’s face is also considered winning football. “Passes Defended” combines interceptions and pass breakups. UK totaled 54. That sum ranked tenth in the conference.

Total Defense

I look at yards per play allowed here. UK ranked third in the SEC after giving up 5.19 yards per snap. To go deeper, 4.2 vs. the run and just over 6 per pass. Opponents had 433 rushing attempts compared to 347 passes. Those numbers reflect that opponents had more success running the football vs. Kentucky than through the air. This summation also provides the “How” opposing offenses attacked the UK defense. 

What Does All This Mean? 

There’s a million ways to statistically analyze the football game. Each contributor has a system that he or she leans on when discussing defensive efficiency. There is no right or wrong way. Mine is probably a little antiquated, but it works for me. Hope it works for you as well.

Discuss This Article

Comments have moved.

Join the conversation and talk about this article and all things Kentucky Sports in the new KSR Message Board.

KSBoard

2024-03-28