UK Front Seven's Tackles for Loss and QB Sacks

Is there a direct correlation between accumulated tackles for loss and wins? How about QB sacks? Kentucky finished 12th in the SEC with 63 tackles for loss which is six lower than its 2016 total (69). Noticeably, the Cats increased its QB sack total from 21 in 2016 to 30 in 2017. This post will address the front seven. Secondary analysis to follow.

Let’s take a look at the data: 

Opponent	Tackles for Loss	QB Sacks
@Southern Miss	8	2
EKU	3	1
@South Carolina	3	2
Florida	4	1
Eastern Michigan	7	5
Missouri	2	1
@Miss State	3	0
Tennessee	12	7
Ole Miss	7	3
@Vanderbilt	6	5
@Georgia	1	1
Louisville	2	0
Northwestern	5	2

(*Bold=Win)

Average Number of TFL’s per Win/Loss

-Wins: 5.85 tackles for loss per win. 

-Losses: 3.66 per loss.

Average Number of QB Sacks per Win/Loss

-Wins: 3.2 QB sacks per win.

-Loss: 1.16 per loss.

 

Kentucky averaged 2.19 more tackles for loss in victories than in losses. It also totaled 2.04 more quarterback sacks in wins. So, both categories greatly factor in the Win/Loss category. The Cats had its most explosive conference games against Vanderbilt and Tennessee. Its lowest defensive explosive play contests occurred in UK’s worst two losses vs. Georgia and Louisville.

All SEC outside linebacker Josh Allen was constantly fighting double-teams and sliding protections during certain-pass downs. With a defensive line that at times struggled, the X factor for Matt House’s unit was the Jack Linebacker position (Denzil Ware/Josh Paschal).  It must be noted that Denzil Ware was an all-conference performer and was twice named the SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week and Josh Paschal is a rising star within the Southeastern Conference. The duo’s numbers in UK’s two games with the highest TFL/QB sack production were elevated. The two combined for 3 QB sacks and 3 TFL’s vs. Vanderbilt. Earlier in the season they racked up 2.5 TFL and 1.5 QB sacks against Tennessee. Conversely, Ware/Paschal recorded zero tackles for loss and zero quarterback sacks in Kentucky’s lowest two explosive-statistical performances against Georgia and Louisville. These numbers (both positive and negative) are by no means solely on Josh Paschal and Denzil Ware. 2018 could see significant statistical increases and consistencies for both players but they will need a drastic improvement from their line-of-scrimmage mates.

Linebacker Totals (Returning Players)

Name	Position	Tackles for Loss	QB Sacks
Denzil Ware	OLB (Jack)	9	6.5
Josh Paschal	OLB (Jack)	4.5	3.5
Josh Allen	OLB	9.5	7
Jordan Jones	SLB	7.5	2
Boogie Watson	LB	2	2
Eli Brown	SLB	2	0

UK failed to establish a consistent, disruptive pressure from its interior defensive linemen which significantly lessens edge defender’s efficiency. Kentucky has to become more troublesome for opposing offensive lines from its organic three defensive linemen within the 3-4 scheme. A healthy and year older Quinton Bohanna can be an answer. He could potentially receive help from true freshman Marquan McCall. Other than Bohanna, the nose tackle position failed to meet expectation in 2017 and was at times a liability. Defensive ends TJ Carter, Kengera Daniel, and Calvin Taylor Jr. must increase the position’s explosive numbers and beyond line-of-scrimmage disorder. Defensive tackle Adrian Middleton is now a senior. Mark Stoops needs him to produce as such. Kordell Looney showed flashes in his first season and should benefit from experience. Rising senior Tymere Dubose played his best game as a Wildcat in the Music City Bowl. Dubose has all the tools to star. If he does or not lies squarely on his shoulders.

Defensive Line Totals (Returning Players)

Name	Position	Tackles for Loss	QB Sacks
Adrian Middleton	DT	3	1
TJ Carter	DE	3	3
Calvin Taylor	DE	1	1
Kengera Daniel	DE	1	1
Tymere Dubose	DT	1.5	0
Kordell Looney	DT	1	0

Regardless of the how and by whom; the Kentucky defense must figure out a way to increase its tackles for loss totals and continue to rise in its number of QB sacks. Much of the blame for UK’s 13th place pass defense was laid at the feet of its secondary. A portion of that was warranted and will be addressed at a later time. However, the truth of the matter is that pass defense is an 11-man operation. With 10/11 defensive starters returning; it’s mandatory that the front seven improve in these two statistical categories.