Want John Calipari gone now? The grass may not be greener for Kentucky on the other side

It wouldn’t be a college basketball season without John Calipari departure rumors pushing him to a new school or NBA franchise. This time around, it’s the Texas Longhorns, the program’s new potential savior following Chris Beard’s firing over his recent domestic abuse arrest.

Typically, Calipari’s wandering eye — or other programs hoping to pique his interest — is met with desperation on Kentucky’s end. The latest example resulted in the infamous lifetime contract that is set to keep him on the sidelines through 2029 and around the program until he’s tired of collecting $1 million annual checks as an ambassador. Whether the outside interest was used for leverage or not, UK was always willing to meet whatever Calipari’s needs were to keep him around in Lexington permanently. Fans, just as desperate to keep the momentum rolling with their beloved Wildcats, were for it — no matter how scary a “lifetime” sounded for any head coach.

Four seasons later, that desperation has flipped. As Cal-to-Texas rumors run rampant, fans are no longer on their hands and knees begging for their larger-than-life head coach to stay, they’re begging for him to take the job and create a path to a fresh start for the Kentucky program.

Maybe a fresh start would work for both sides. A new audience to listen to Calipari’s quips and a reset in fan expectations for a program that hasn’t reached the Sweet Sixteen since 2008 — 10 tournament appearances since then without making it past the opening weekend. Texas is a recruiting hotbed littered with talent — an area he’s dominated over the years as is — and the Longhorns have an endless supply of booster money. Should he need an ego stroke, Austin could provide that.

And then on Kentucky’s end, it’s a chance to go younger or modern, someone known for offensive innovation and maximizing talent — again, these are consistent gripes from the fanbase. Those clamoring for something new, that’s what they’re looking for.

But is it truly a win-win for both sides, especially now? Is that really what we should be rooting for?

Let’s first take a step back and take a deep breath.

Look, saying this season has not lived up to expectations would be an understatement, that’s nothing new. A team with national title hopes going into the year is now seen as a fringe tournament team on the cusp of an implosion riddled with ball movement, spacing, chemistry and maybe even overall talent issues. A clear path to a turnaround just isn’t there as of today, no matter how “special” Calipari believes this team can still be. That’s after the team’s worst season in history (9-16, 2020-21) and the worst postseason loss in history (Saint Peter’s, 2021-22). Frustration is loud and clear within the fanbase regarding the trajectory of this basketball program. Is Kentucky currently the gold standard of college basketball? Recent results suggest otherwise. Can it return to that status under Calipari? That’s the question of the hour for many fans — take a simple scroll through social media, comment sections and message boards if you don’t believe me.

This was supposed to be the year that fixed some of the previous issues and shift that momentum long-term back. That brings us to this week’s news, with reports circulating that Texas is not only interested in Calipari, but contact has already been made through backchannels — the two sides denied early contact to close out the day Monday. Regardless of where things stand today, a competitive offer down the road, 247Sports insider Travis Branham says, could land the Hall of Fame coach in Austin, a move that would kickstart one of the most high-profile coaching searches in history back in Lexington.

Filling the shoes of a coach with the decades of accolades and success of Calipari, though, is a tall task no matter how frustrated you are in the current results. It’s easy to rattle off names who could — on paper — thrive in that role, but that’s certainly easier said than done. Whether you like it or not, the Kentucky program is polarizing for the rest of the college basketball world. For better and for worse, Big Blue Nation is the sport’s most passionate fanbase. The love during good times is endless, but so is the hate during the bad. That’s not something just anyone would sign up for. It takes someone ready-made to not just step into the spotlight, but embrace it. Calipari has been that guy from the minute he arrived on campus.

And then you factor in day-one expectations, getting a fanbase bursting with impatience, anxiously awaiting the program’s first Final Four since 2015. If you sign up for this, you better be ready to put together a roster ready to compete right away. And you won’t have a top-ranked recruiting class — DJ Wagner, Aaron Bradshaw, Justin Edwards and Rob Dillingham would almost certainly follow Calipari to Texas or reopen things, at minimum — in your back pocket to make the transition a seamless one. A mass exodus wouldn’t just be possible or even likely, it’d be certain.

And don’t look at the rest of the 2023 high school recruiting class for help. The only uncommitted player ranked inside the top 50 is Bronny James — and he ain’t coming, nor would he be the answer if he did. Reclassification help from 2024? It’s widely considered the worst class from top to bottom in recent memory. Your season saviors aren’t coming from there, either.

Then there’s the transfer portal, where schools like Missouri and LSU revamped their rosters under new head coaches. They made total reconstructions look easy, sure, but have you looked at those programs’ non-conference schedules to open the year? A long list of cupcakes to help build early-season win totals and team chemistry, establish a culture. Kentucky doesn’t have that luxury, competing in the premier early-season events like the Champions Classic and CBS Sports Classic. The ACC/SEC Challenge is coming, meaning matchups against Duke and North Carolina are coming in the years they aren’t played in the big neutral-site events. What about the long-term series with Gonzaga? Or Indiana? Michigan is still on the schedule for next season. Does Louisville ever get good again?

It’s easy to say you can go out and get college basketball’s finest out of the transfer portal, but how is that any different than this season? Two blue-chip freshmen in the rotation while the others were former portal stars from West Virginia, Georgia, Iowa, Rhode Island and Illinois State. This group hasn’t meshed yet, and we’re midway through the season. This one has six scholarship players returning from a year ago, too. We’re just supposed to assume a brand new coach — name your favorite option, it doesn’t matter — is going to find the perfect portal combination when filling out an entire roster, plus Reed Sheppard? When you go after, say, Nate Oats or Eric Musselman, those star players won’t be following along to Lexington, they’ll be going pro. This isn’t Murray State or Cleveland State to the SEC.

You can dream big if you want, but the harsh reality is a John Calipari departure would almost certainly result in a year-one rebuild in Lexington. And then you’re already behind for recruiting in 2024, a class with minimal star talent as is. Better hope you hit on multi-year development pieces this upcoming portal cycle.

Of course Kentucky fans want more, they haven’t seen an NCAA Tournament win since the 2018-19 season. No Final Fours since 2015. Impatience and frustration have been mounting for years now, and it seemingly reached its peak following the blowout loss in Tuscaloosa. It felt like a changing of the guard among SEC powerhouses, with Kentucky being the perennial blueblood dominating the conference year after year while everybody else fights for second place. Now Kentucky finishing in second place would be a monstrous achievement considering where things stand currently.

But would it really be worth it to run off Coach Cal and the foundation he has set for next season, at minimum? I’m not over the moon about the 2023 class as a whole — though better than 2024, it’s still inarguably a down year — but everyone is recruiting from the same pot. Kentucky got the best of that bunch at every position. Lose that and you’re starting a mile behind whether you’ve got Billy Gillispie or the ghost of Red Auerbach coaching the team.

Maybe you think a rebuild is worth it. Maybe there’s a perfect fit out there that can get things rolling early, hit a few home runs in the portal and put this program in position to compete right away.

Or maybe the grass isn’t always greener on the other side.

My gut? Do what you can to figure out what the hell is wrong with this team and — for all that is good in this world — make the tournament and win a few games. Maybe we get some March magic, who knows? As unpromising as things look now, there’s still half a season to go. Get through the Knoxville trip this weekend and look ahead to a slightly favorable stretch in conference play before Kansas comes to town to close out the month. Opportunities to build confidence and chemistry are there, it’s on the coaches and players to take advantage of those opportunities in the back half of the schedule. No choice but to find answers (or realize these pieces simply don’t fit, which could be a possibility).

Then run it back with the star freshmen Calipari has worked best with over the years, where we saw the Hall of Fame coach shine brightest in Lexington. He always said he’d take talent over experience every time, and this season and next may be the perfect examples of that. His first one-and-done at Memphis was Dajuan Wagner Sr., and now, Calipari has the chance to coach his top-ranked son and his blue-chip buddies in Lexington. He’s owed that opportunity, at least.

If it’s time for a fresh start for both sides from there, so be it. That’s between Calipari and Mitch Barnhart. Running him off before then, though, creates a dangerous scenario for the program that could result in severe seller’s remorse.