What Can Kentucky Show Against North Carolina Central

Typically, I would be posting a full scouting report featuring 2,500+ words on the North Carolina Central Eagles. I like to treat every opponent the same and always dive in with the same vigor and level of detail regardless of who Kentucky is playing. However, we are stepping away from that today. Nobody wants to read 2,500+ words on a team ranked 350th in KenPom. Quite frankly, even the players in the locker room don’t need that sort of scouting report this matchup. This game is about taking small, tangible steps forward.

There is nothing the ‘Cats can do on Tuesday night that will make Big Blue Nation feel any better. However, that doesn’t mean the game is worthless. Feel good, get right opportunities matter from a confidence standpoint. Playing basketball at Kentucky right now probably isn’t very much fun. The fan base is angry, practices are likely less-than-pleasant, and the losses are piling up. Beating North Carolina Central isn’t going to change anyone’s outlook for the season, but it can serve as a two-hour reprieve from the otherwise gloomy cloud that has been cast over Lexington. For a team searching, desperately, for answers games like this can serve as a launching off point towards something better.

Kentucky has dominated in their five “buy” games and have lost all four games they have played to teams currently ranked in the Top 14 nationally. Tonight won’t be any different. Those previous victories didn’t do anything to right the ship in between losses. However, things can click at any moment. Getting some things ironed out against North Carolina Central prior to facing Indiana and St. John’s could, at this point, make or break the season. Showing high-level concentration and effort will be priority number one on Tuesday night. Kentucky also needs to see some outside shots go in for the sake of confidence. Finally, it would be good to see the ‘Cats establish some sort of defensive identity. Those will be the three evaluation points, not the scoreboard, against the Eagles of North Carolina Central.

Turn Up the Communication, Concentration, and Effort

It is easy to point to effort when things don’t go well. That is something that everyone can comprehend. Why didn’t things go our way? They probably didn’t try hard enough. Also, most people can’t evaluate the actually issues so it is much easier to call out effort. Undoubtedly, there were some breakdowns in effort on Friday against Gonzaga. However, a lot of times breakdowns in communication and concentration get labeled as effort. Kentucky is having issues with all three right now. Fixing these non-negotiable facets of the game will be something to watch for against North Carolina Central.

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In general, the effort issue from Friday has been a bit overplayed. However, this is an example of poor effort from Otega Oweh. You have to be ready to capitalize when Gonzaga gives you a freebie. This is a bad shot by Graham Ike. Watch Oweh as the ball gets tipped up into the air. He very clearly gets eyes on it, but doesn’t even make an attempt. Ike was able to grab his own miss, draw a foul, and convert both free throws.

If we as fans are going to call out poor effort we should be wiling to acknowledge exemplary effort as well. Even with Kentucky down 19-2 Denzel Aberdeen sold out and sprinted up the floor in transition. His effort very directly led to three points. Look at how hard he runs to the corner and waits for Jaland Lowe to slice the floor. Catch-and-shoot three-point shots in transition are some of the Wildcats’ highest percentage shots.

It is easy to see #34 Huff shooting one of his patented push shots, wide open, from the front of the rim and blame the effort. However, the defensive issues for Kentucky run much deeper than simply playing hard. #2 Venters, an elite shooter, and #7 Grant-Foster, essentially a non-shooter, are spotted up on the weak side. With how dangerous Huff is on the roll you would like to think the game plan is for someone to tag on him on the roll. Denzel Aberdeen is occupied by an excellent shooter, but Otega Oweh is very much available to step up and tag the roll. He clearly does not do so in this clip. Is that an effort issue? A concentration issue? Was it not in the game plan? Part of the problem right now is the answer to those questions is not clear.

This is one of the more glaring clips when it comes to singling out a lack of effort. Malachi Moreno missed a layup and then kicked out the offensive rebound for a missed three. As Gonzaga begins their transition break you can almost see the deep exhale from Moreno. “Here we go again.” He begins by jogging so slowly that he leaves the frame. Then, he stares at the ball while positioning himself inside of the restricted arc. Never once does Moreno see his man, #15 Ike, let alone make contact with him. Ike ends up with an offensive rebound putback. Moreno jogging up the floor ends up looking so much worse because of how this play ended.

Let’s See Some Shots Go In the Basket

There isn’t a huge difference between making shots against North Carolina Central and making shots against Indiana or St. John’s. Of course, it is easier to get open against the Eagles. You likely will be contested a little bit more or be a little bit more sped up against better teams. However, open shots are still open shots. In the first four minutes of Kentucky’s embarrassing 94-59 loss to Gonzaga they got four open three-point looks for two of their best shooters. Collin Chandler and Kam Williams went 0-4. If one or two of those shots go in the scoreboard would have looked very different. The ‘Cats need to see some of those shots go in on Tuesday night to regain some confidence moving forward.

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Kam Williams made 63 three-point shots at a 41.2% clip as a freshman at Tulane. He is shooting just 6-28 (21.4%) from deep through nine games at Kentucky. In this clip Williams ends up with a clean look on the left wing late in the shot clock. Part of his lower percentage shot-making this season could be due to shooting so many shots from further beyond the arc. You can see here that he is all of the way up at the 28-foot line. However, it is still an open look that the ‘Cats expect Williams to convert at higher than a 21.4% clip.

Coach Mark Pope turned to one of his favorite set play calls, “Horns Flex,” to try and get the ‘Cats a bucket. Malachi Moreno got the ball knocked away from him, but they were actually still able to execute the play. Collin Chandler was open off of the downscreen and got a clean look from three-point range. Chandler is shooting 22-50 (44.0%) from three-point range this season, but he missed a couple of good looks early on against Gonzaga. Seeing the ball go in against North Carolina Central will hopefully carry into some more mad shots against Indiana and St. John’s.

A big issue for Kentucky offensively is a lack of penetration. It also is why shooters are often forced out further beyond the arc. It is hard to be up toeing the line when the guards don’t get paint touches. You have to create enough space for a closeout and the inability to attract help is forcing the shooters out further and further. As mentioned earlier, that is clearly impacting Kam Williams’ percentage. Penetration into the paint, as opposed to just the elbow, could have created a better shot for Williams in this clip.

You can’t ask for a much better shot than an open look for a 44% three-point shooter. Kentucky missed several good looks early on in Friday night’s game as Gonzaga pulled away. Hopefully, the ‘Cats will see some of these shots go in against North Carolina Central. Everyone involved with the basketball program could use a confidence boost before taking on Indiana and St. John’s.

Establish a Defensive Identity

Michigan State is a team that is going to sell out on protecting the paint and make you beat them from beyond the arc. Kentucky shot 7-30 (23.3%) from three-point range, took more 3’s than 2’s, and shot below 50% from inside the arc. Meanwhile, North Carolina is a team that is going to really take you away from three-point range. They use their length to switch defensively, stay attached, and force you to play inside the arc. The Wildcats were 22-40 (55.0%) from two-point range against the Tar Heels, but shot just 1-13 (7.7%) from deep. Those are two polar opposite defensive identities. However, both teams imposed their will on the ‘Cats. Kentucky does not seem to have any sort of identity. What do they take away?

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This clip includes commentary and a more in-depth breakdown. The end result is Jasper Johnson helping off of Gonzaga’s best shooter, #2 Venters, in order to stop a weak-hand drive. If Kentucky’s identity is to protect the paint then that would be an understandable decision. However, based on what we see in this next clip, that is not the case.

Once again, this clip includes commentary and a more in-depth breakdown. This time Jaland Lowe decides to not help off of a non-shooter onto a strong hand drive. Again, this would be okay if Kentucky’s identity was to take opponents away from three-point range. However, based on what we saw in the previous clip, that is not the case.

What is Jaland Lowe trying to take away here? #3 Smith is a 26.7% three-point shooter so it makes sense to aggressively dig or double off of him on #34 Huff. However, Lowe isn’t actually doing anything. He just goes and stands near Huff. There is zero pressure being applied to the ball and you certainly aren’t making Huff uncomfortable, but you also aren’t taking away the three. It needs to be one or the other. Which decision gets made, bothering the post or taking away the three, is largely irrelevant. Getting stuck in no man’s land though does absolutely no good.