What Does Vegas Know? Gamblers are Hammering Louisville

With only two regular season games under each team’s belt, there are so many uncertainties when trying to handicap Tuesday night’s matchup between Kentucky and Louisville. We just don’t have that many data points on either team.

KenPom is a reliable source. Even though Kentucky is the top team in the efficiency rankings, KenPom gives Louisville a one-point edge.

Out in the desert, Louisville opened as a 2.5-point favorite. After about 18 hours, that number is growing. Louisville is now a 6.5-point favorite on BetMGM.

Lines move all the time. What’s peculiar about this is that more than 70% of bets placed on DraftKings are on Kentucky, yet the big money is backing Louisville. VegasInsider estimates roughly 84% of bets are on the Cards to cover. What does Vegas know?

Visual display of Louisville -6.5 betting at Pinnacle over the last hour

8:31, limits @ 1K: -6.5 was +119

9:10, limits @ 2K: -6.5 was +108

Now -6.5 @ -106 pic.twitter.com/48E40C2Wa5

— CC (@TheBestWager) November 11, 2025

The money in Vegas is not following history. Over the last 17 meetings in this series, Kentucky is 14-3 against Louisville. The Wildcats were 6-1 when both teams were ranked. Furthermore, Louisville has not defeated Kentucky by 7+ points since 2008, and it’s only happened twice since 1998. The Cards’ previous four wins in this series were all by exactly three points.

Either the Cards will make a little history, or Kentucky fans will cash in big. We’ll find out tonight at the Yum! Center around 10 PM ET.

Kentucky vs. Louisville: How to Watch, Listen

• Tipoff: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN (Dan Shulman, Jay Bilas)
• Local Radio: UK Sports Network (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• AM: 840 WHAS, 630 WLAP
• FM: 98.1 WBUL
• Online: iHeart Radio
• Sirius XM: 117 or 190

You can also follow along on the KSR LIVE BLOG, which will start a few hours before tipoff, and join the conversation on KSBoard.