What Kentucky Must Do to Beat Mizzou

On3 imageby:Freddie Maggard09/10/21

This game is personal. Kentucky will take on Missouri on Saturday night in a super-charged grudge match with conference implications on the line. The Tigers flipped the script a year ago and beat up on the Cats in Columbia. Mizzou was the more physical team and dominated the lines of scrimmage on its way to a 20-10 home victory. To say that this matchup is important would be a considerable understatement. Saturday’s winner will likely be ranked and have an early advantage in the ascent up SEC East standings. Here are some goals Kentucky must accomplish in order leave Saturday night’s game victorious. 

OFFENSE

Missouri’s defense led the nation with nine quarterback sacks against Central Michigan in its opener. The Tigers also accumulated 14 tackles for loss. That’s a great deal of across the line of scrimmage havoc and a factor that must be taken into consideration when projecting Saturday’s outcome. Mizzou defensive coordinator Steve Wilks’ intent vs. CMU was to attack by bringing six defenders while playing press man coverage with a free safety patrolling the middle of the field. This defensive strategy often doomed the Cats’ offense in the past. But, it’s a new day in Lexington under Liam Coen. 

Linebackers often blitzed, which was evident by Blaze Alldredge’s 3.5 QB sacks and 6 tackles for loss. UK has to make the Mizzou coaching staff uncomfortable by taking advantage of potential explosive play opportunities. Missouri surrendered 21 plays of 10+ yards last week. Explosion will be a priority for Liam Coen. 

wan'dale-robinson

Stay Balanced

Kentucky ran the football 34 times against ULM. It passed on 33 occasions for a darn near perfect 51/49 mixture. Total yardage was more pass driven, throwing for 419 yards compared to 145 on the ground. To beat Missouri, UK will need to operate a 55/45 run-to-pass ratio and increase its rush yards to 180+. Play action and screen passes could also be utilized to combat the aggressive Mizzou defense. 

Protect Will Levis

As stated above, Missouri displayed an explosive pass rush against Central Michigan. Nine quarterback sacks is tops in the nation. Linebacker Blaze Alldredge is a Rice transfer that recorded 3.5 sacks a week ago. Forceful pressure from an inside linebacker is a difficult proposition for most teams. Kentucky’s vaunted Big Blue Wall must do a better job of protecting the quarterback on Saturday night. The Cats allowed four sacks against an overmatched ULM defense. While not alarming yet, that number is concerning given the Tiger’s pass rush prowess. Receivers Wan’Dale Robinson and Josh Ali will be defended by man-to-man coverage and be called upon to get vertical. Those routes take time. Kentucky’s pocket integrity is a major storyline for this game. The Wildcats can’t allow more than three sacks vs. the Tigers. 

Will-levis-luke-fortner

Explode

Missouri surrendered 21 plays of 10+ yards last week including four that exceeded 20+ yards. Explosion is a priority for Liam Coen. The Tigers’ attacking defensive scheme is a high risk, high reward concept. This was evident after Mizzou dominated the havoc stat line but was vulnerable to explosive plays against Central Michigan. UK will need to execute 14 plays that exceed the 10-yard mark including 2-3 “home run shots” for over 30 yards. UK’s run-game produced three plays of 10+ vs. ULM. That number must increase to 5+ on Saturday. 

DEFENSE 

Saturday night will feature two of the better quarterbacks in the SEC based on week-one performance. Will Levis and Connor Bazelak both completed over 65% of their passes last Saturday and have garnered media attention leading up to kickoff. But, slowing or containing running back Tyler Badie will be priority number one for Brad White’s unit. 

Don’t Let Badie Beat You

Running back Tyler Badie racked up 243 yards from scrimmage vs. CMU, including 203 on the ground to go along with two scores. The Mizzou offense runs through the 5-foot-8, 195-pound senior from New Orleans. Badie is a dangerous, one-cut runner that’s also a threat to catch passes out of the backfield. Slowing him to less than 120 total yards will be critical for the Wildcats. Badie is an aggravating player that can extend drives on the ground and through the air. Open-field tackling will need to be sharp against the all-purpose star. 

Stop the Chains

Missouri was inexplicably 1/11 on 3rd down last Saturday. The 9.09% conversion rate is a far cry from the 10/20 on 3rd down and 4/5 on 4th against Kentucky last season. Bazelak is a highly capable passer, especially on third and fourth downs. Aggravating, drive-sustaining plays doomed the Cats after the Tigers posted 92 plays, compared to UK’s 36 a year ago.  Keeping Mizzou below 50% on 3th and 4th down conversion attempts would be optimum. 

Force Turnovers

Every possession will count in this high-stakes SEC contest. Stealing possessions via a fumble recovery or interception will give Liam Coen’s offense additional opportunities to score points. Kentucky didn’t force a turnover last week. The magic number is two on Saturday night. 

jordan-wright

SPECIAL TEAMS

UK has lots to clean up in the third phase. It had issues against ULM, but none that altered the game’s trajectory. Mark Stoops cannot afford to have self-inflicted special teams’ errors against the Tigers. Kicker Matt Ruffolo nailed his only field goal attempt and was perfect on PATs. The UK kicker will need to be reliable as the game could potentially tighten in the fourth quarter and be decided by three-point attempts. 

The Bottom Line

Kentucky and Missouri have developed quite the rivalry since the Tigers entered the Southeastern Conference. Let’s be honest here, these two teams don’t like each other very much. The same can be said of their fanbases. Both the Tigers and the Cats are fighting to become relevant in the SEC East. Expect a highly competitive and spirited contest in a must-win scenario for both programs. UK is the more talented and veteran team. Those factors could pay early dividends when emotions have the tendency to get out of hand. 

UK’s schedule sets up for three monstrous SEC matchups in the middle of its schedule. For games against LSU, Florida, and Georgia to really matter, the Cats have to take care of business against Missouri. Coach Eli Drinkwitz has proven to be the right hire in Columbia. His offense is diverse and is led by an efficient quarterback (Connor Bazelak) and dynamic running back (Tyler Badie). Prepare to be uncomfortable on Saturday night. There’s a great deal of fight in the visiting Tigers which will make for an interesting back-and-forth football game. 

Linebackers Blaze Alldredge and Devin Nicholson are forceful defenders. They’re joined by versatile strong safety Martez Manuel to construct a tempo-influencing unit that will force the action across the line of scrimmage. Coordinator Steve Wilks’ scheme basically says that his defensive backs are better than Kentucky’s pass catchers in man-on-man scenarios. This should set up for quite the chess match against Liam Coen. 

Kentucky vs. Missouri is the SEC’s only matchup that features two conference teams on Saturday. All eyes will be on the happenings at Kroger Field. The Cats have an opportunity for a statement win after exploding on the scene for 419 pass yards in its opener.

Yes, this is important. Yes, this game is personal. 

Discuss This Article

Comments have moved.

Join the conversation and talk about this article and all things Kentucky Sports in the new KSR Message Board.

KSBoard

2024-03-27