What Kentucky Must Do to Beat Vanderbilt

This is a game that Kentucky should and must win. The Wildcats have dropped three consecutive games after starting the season 6-0. Mark Stoops’ team will hop on a bus and drive to Nashville to take on the 2-7 Vanderbilt Commodores. 

The Cats’ three-game losing skid has been frustrating. This is especially applicable to the defense. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 82% of their passes and combined for an astounding 13-yards per attempt. The Vandy offense lacks identity and explosion. Quarterback Mike Wright is coming off his best performance of the season against Missouri before the bye week. The sophomore signal-caller could make things interesting. Saturday is an opportunity for a “Get right” performance for the Kentucky defense. But, this game also presents multiple red flags for a letdown outing. Let’s get into what Kentucky has to do in order to get the win. 

OFFENSE 

The perfect case scenario would be for the Kentucky offense to play as it did against Tennessee. A repeat performance is possible, but not likely. Ninety-nine plays, 612 total yards, and 35 first downs were an explosion. Those types of results are difficult to accomplish in consecutive weeks. The Wildcats have not been consistent. A carryover game from a week ago could lead to another 40-plus point performance. With a besieged defense, the more scores the better. 

Will Levis played his best game as a Wildcat against Tennessee. The quarterback dispersed the football to seven different pass catchers and accounted for five scores. He threw for 372 yards, rushed for 47, and caught a 15-yard pass. Another stout outing by the quarterback is mandatory. Levis needs to sequence proficient performances in order to validate development. 

This is a game that the Big Blue Wall needs to dominate up front. Midseason All-American guard Eli Cox is out. His absence will be noticeable. Austin Dotson and Quintin Wilson will take his place. Chris Rodriguez Jr. ran powerfully a week ago. The SEC’s second-leading rusher will have opportunities to gain chunk yardage against a VU defense that’s allowing 184 run yards per game. Here’s what the Kentucky offense needs to do in order to get the win. 

Create the Environment 

Road games at Vanderbilt are complicated. First is the bus ride. This may sound like an inconsequential and minor detail. But, ground travel is just different. Second, the Commodores don’t exactly pack the house. The SEC theme “It just means more” doesn’t apply to the conference’s Nashville franchise. Administrators are asking supporters for a “Black Out.” But, the vast majority of fans in that timeworn, small stadium will be wearing blue. Empty seats will also be plentiful. Liam Coen will need to manufacture excitement during the early onset of the contest in order to create the preferred tempo for his offense. The first quarter could be the most important fifteen minutes of the contest. The Commodores have been boat raced 110-23 in the opening period. 

On the other hand, a slow start could prove to be detrimental and play into the host’s hands. The outcome will become more threatening the longer that Vanderbilt stays in the game. The Cats need to score early and often to put the home underdog away.  

Protect the Football

Vanderbilt ranks 13th in the SEC after giving up 463 total yards per game. The Commodores are last in the league by surrendering 279 passing yards per contest. Opposing rushers are rambling for 5.3 yards per carry and 184 per game. The majority of VU’s defensive rankings are in the SEC’s basement. 

However, forcing turnovers is the one statistical category that has brought hope for the Vandy faithful. VU has recovered two fumbles and intercepted 11 passes. Thirteen forced turnovers rank second in the Southeastern Conference. Conversely, Kentucky ranks 129th in the country with a -12 turnover margin; only Arizona’s -14 is worse. That’s a great deal of typed words to say that ball security on the road will be priority number one. 

The Commodores operate a 4-2-5 high-risk high, high reward scheme that focuses on creating turnovers and producing havoc. Forcing turnovers has proven to be a positive. The problem (or opportunity) is that havoc numbers have been low. Vandy ranks last in the SEC with seven quarterback sacks and 40 tackles for loss. 

Hit Home Runs 

Vanderbilt has allowed 142 plays that have exceeded 10 yards. Fifty have come on the ground. Ninety-two have been passing plays. Gaining chunk yardage will be a possibility against a defense that is consistently surrendering big plays. Kentucky is averaging six yards per snap in 2021. Exceeding eight per play would suffice. A concern is that Liam Coen’s offense may get tempted into playing “Hero Ball.” Forcing greedy downfield shots has led to turnovers and wasted series. Will Levis and Liam Coen’s patience will be tested. 

DEFENSE 

Tennessee was a bad matchup against the current Kentucky two-deep. Space and tempo isolated playmakers on defenders that did not make enough stops in space. Routes weren’t defended at the top, second-level leverage was lost, and too many tackles were missed. Injuries have limited Brad White’s unit. The Wildcats were down multiple starters a week ago. Attrition is part of football and must be taken into consideration when constructing a roster. Depth and role players have to develop into consistent and trustworthy contributors. 

Stetson Bennett, Will Rogers, and Hendon Hooker have combined to complete 82% of their passes during UK’s three-game losing skid. They also threw for 912 yards and eight touchdowns. That trio represents three of the most accurate and efficient quarterbacks in the SEC. Vandy signal-callers won’t present that same level of precision; however, Vanderbilt will certainly attempt to take advantage of the Wildcats’ recent liabilities against the forward pass. Personnel and schematic matchups favor Kentucky more so in this one than its previous three contests. 

Vanderbilt ranks last in the SEC after posting 301 total yards per game. Its 184 passing yards per game average is also last in the league. Sophomore quarterback Mike Wright filled in for the injured Ken Seals and is rushing for 41 yards per game. He can extend plays on the ground and has a stronger than average arm. Wright is coming off his best game of the season against Missouri after going 14-28 and tossing three touchdowns. Former starter Ken Seals was injured but is set to make a return against the Wildcats. Brad White will have to be prepared for two quarterbacks with differing styles. 

Ken Seals led a valiant comeback last year in Lexington. He has arm talent and a group of receivers that can leave a mark. Kentucky’s pass rush sacked Hendon Hooker on five occasions. Altering Vandy quarterbacks in the pocket would go great lengths to assist a struggling secondary. VU will likely throw more passes in this game than it has over the course of the season. It’s averaging 34 pass attempts per contest. The Commodores average 5.5 yards per pass attempt which is the lowest in the SEC. Here’s what the Kentucky defense has to do on Saturday. 

Be Opposite 

Tennessee exploded all over Kroger Field. The visitors racked up 461 total yards off just 47 plays and easily scored 45 points. Four UT pass-catchers averaged more than 20 yards per reception. Hendon Hooker averaged 15 yards per attempt. The Volunteers managed ten yards per snap. Scary, scary numbers. 

The Volunteers scored on their first play of the game on a screen pass that featured missed tackles and unfitting leverage. The Kentucky defense needs a positive, game-changing play in the first quarter. This could come in the form of an interception, strip sack, or any other happening that would serve as a momentum-inducing moment. In other words, this defense needs a confidence boost in the worst way. Holding VU to less than five yards per play would be winning football. 

Defend Passes 

Action at the point of the catch has been lacking. Kentucky has recorded 28 pass breakups in 2021. Ten have come from linebackers. Defensive backs have contributed 18. To be more specific, cornerbacks have totaled six while safety/nickel defenders have added twelve PBUs. Safety Yusuf Corker leads the way with eight. 

Kentucky has intercepted three passes. Linebackers Jacquez Jones and JJ Weaver have one apiece. Safety Tyrell Ajian is the only defensive back that has picked off a pass this season. In total, Kentucky has defended 31 passes at the point of catch in 2021. Opponents have attempted 291 passes this season. 

The Commodores have some valued options at receiver. Success through the air has been difficult due to QB Ken Seals’ injury and a suspect offensive line. But, don’t be fooled. Receivers Will Sheppard, Chris Peirce, and Cam Johnson are respectable pass catchers that will confidently face a secondary that has notably struggled. 

There are going to be multiple plays that will feature one-on-one scenarios. These situations will come in the form of solo tackles, pass coverage in space, or via a 50/50 ball.  Kentucky has to start winning some of these battles. VU quarterbacks are completing 53% of their passes and have thrown eleven interceptions compared to ten touchdown passes. Vanderbilt is averaging 5.5 yards per pass attempt. Holding the Commodores to their season averages would give the Wildcat secondary some resemblance of confidence going into the season’s last two games. 

TACKLE, TACKLE, TACKLE 

Kentucky’s tackling has been disturbingly bad. This trend is uncharacteristic of a Mark Stoops football team. Multiple missed tackles have principally surfaced against the Air Raid and Tennessee’s warp-speed tempo. An improvement in this area is a non-negotiable objective going forward. Tackling isn’t so much about the scheme and leans more towards leverage, technique, and want-to. The Kentucky head coach often says that missed tackles are a derivative of being out of position. That is another factor that needs to be cleaned up immediately. Kentucky will need to get VU ball carriers to the ground. This specifically applies in space. Quarterback Mike Wright is Vanderbilt’s most dangerous runner. He averaged 11 yards per carry on his way to rush for 152 yards in a recent loss to Missouri. 

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Wildcats weren’t efficient in the third phase against Tennessee. While it didn’t punt, two kickoff returns exceeded 30 yards. The Cats also missed a 51-yard field goal attempt.  Saturday’s goal is simple. 

Just Be Sound

Nothing spectacular. Just play smart and don’t negatively impact the game. SEC road games are frequently decided by the turnover margin and special teams. 

What Does All This Mean? 

Kentucky has an excellent opportunity to extend its record to 7-3 and finish SEC play with a 5-3 record. Vanderbilt is in year one of a challenging rebuild project. Its average scoring margin per game is -21. Kentucky will have a personnel advantage at most, not all, positions on the football field. But, Vanderbilt is still a member of the Southeastern Conference. A reminder of just how dangerous this game can be happened a week ago in Columbia, South Carolina. The Gamecocks unexpectedly trounced Florida 40-17. The Gators were a 20-point road favorite much like Kentucky is on Saturday. 

Back to the red flags. This is Kentucky’s first bus trip of the season. May sound like a small detail, but it’s different than other road games. That mostly uninhabited stadium can lull opponents to sleep which could lead to an apathetic, letdown performance. The Wildcats are a 21-point favorite against a bad opponent. Cold temperatures are in the forecast. There are several warnings that could lead to a lackluster performance. Kentucky cannot fall into that trap and take care of business in Nashville. There is still a great deal to play for including a warm-weather bowl game. 

Vanderbilt is coming off a bye week. I suspect that head coach Clark Lea has noticed that tempo, splits, and the passing game have given Kentucky fits in the past two weeks. The Vandy offense may try to speed things up a bit in order to gain an advantage. I’m just guessing here. 

This is a game that Kentucky absolutely cannot lose. Dropping three consecutive has the BBN up in arms. Bad matchups were a common theme against Georgia, Miss State, and Tennessee. But, losing to a 2-7 Vanderbilt team would be an unmitigated disaster. The Cats’ backs are against a wall. Style points have been thrown out the window. Saturday is a must-win.