What Kentucky must do to defeat Florida

Kentucky is 4-0. While not pretty at times, the Wildcats have found assorted paths to victory on their way to a 2-0 start in the SEC. In other words, Kentucky is undefeated in spite of a minus-nine turnover margin. The Cats are coming off a hard-fought road win at South Carolina. Brad White’s defense dominated for four quarters while Liam Coen’s unit leaned on its trusty run game to close out a 16-10 victory. 

The 10^th ranked Florida Gators travel north to Lexington sporting the conference’s top rushing attack. The Gators are 3-1 with its only loss being a 31-29 heartbreaker to Alabama in the Swamp. Like most seasons, Dan Mullen’s team is talented, well-coached, and speedy. Let’s take a look at what Kentucky must do in order to defeat Florida. 

OFFENSE

Liam Coen’s offense passed for just 102 yards against South Carolina. However, Will Levis completed 68% of his passes. The Gamecocks were intentional in not allowing Wan’Dale Robinson and other Wildcat pass-catchers behind its deep zone defense. Florida defensive coordinator Todd Grantham will have a much different approach. The Gators will load up the box and present multiple fronts in order to force the issue at the line of scrimmage. This could lead to a high number of one-on-one scenarios in the passing game. Winning in those situations is paramount. 

Chris Rodriguez Jr. is leading the SEC after rushing for 130.5 yards per game. He also tops the league with 16 runs of 10+ yards. After a subpar performance against Chattanooga, the Big Blue Wall had a bounce-back performance against South Carolina. The Wildcats’ offensive line will again be called on to control the line of scrimmage by establishing and maintaining a viable rushing attack. Here’s what the Cats’ offense has to do in order to beat Florida. 

Block the edge

Florida will crowd the line of scrimmage in order to harass Will Levis and stop Rodriguez before the play gets started. The Gators have two highly talented defenders that create havoc on a regular basis. Defensive end Zachary Carter has recorded 7 tackles for loss and 4.5 quarterback sacks. Buck linebacker Brenton Cox has contributed with 3.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 QB sacks. 

Cox and Carter are potential game-changers that will put enormous stress on the edge. Florida has registered 26 tackles for loss. Its 14 quarterback sacks are tied for second in the SEC. Kentucky must effectively limit its havoc production. Holding the talented duo to a combined 3 tackles for loss and 1 quarterback sack would suffice. That’s a tall task for the Kentucky offensive line. Rolling the pocket, counters, play action, and quick drops are potential answers as well. 

Former edge defender Jeremiah Moon was moved to middle linebacker. He also rushes the passer from various locations and must be accounted for in pass protection. Moon has accumulated 23 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, and 1 QB sack for the season.

Hit some shots

Florida’s pass defense has been susceptible. That Gators are allowing 241 passing yards per game and its 7.5 per attempt ranks 13^th in the conference. Kentucky averages 239 pass yards per contest including 8.8 per attempt. Protecting Levis will be the key. The same can be said about pass-catchers winning one-on-one matchups. The Gators will frequently play press-man coverage. Beating an aggressive defense by over the top, vertical completions is a way to counter Grantham’s attack scheme. 

Wan’Dale Robinson is the Cats’ go-to receiver. Robinson has produced six plays of 30+ and his 402 yards rank second in the SEC. Passing for 250 yards isn’t that tough of an ask and would keep the Gator defense off balance. Cornerback Kaiir Elam missed the Tennessee game after suffering an injury against Alabama. He will likely play on Saturday night. Opposing receivers are experiencing very little success against the All-American. The Robinson vs. Elam matchup will be fun to watch and one that must be won by the Wildcat during critical passing downs.  

Hang on to the football

Kentucky defied odds after winning an SEC road game with a minus-three turnover margin last week. Florida is a much, much better football team than South Carolina. The Cats won’t beat Florida with a negative turnover ratio. It’s as simple as that. 

UK’s minus-nine turnover margin ranks last in the nation. The Wildcats are an underdog. Florida is far too talented to overcome self-inflicted errors through ball security errors. A turnover-free outing is mandatory. 

Pound ’em

Do what you do best. Kentucky executes a run-first offense. It will need to sustain an effective rushing attack in order to move to 5-0. Chris Rodriguez Jr. is the top rusher in the SEC. He and the other Wildcat ball carriers will need to combine for over 225 yards on the ground. Florida’s defensive scheme will produce tackles for loss due to structure and coordinator’s intent. But, it also could lead to chunk plays on the ground. 

DEFENSE

Brad White’s defense dominated South Carolina last week in Columbia. Florida presents a distinctive and much more significant challenge. Dan Mullen is a polarizing figure in the SEC. But, his creativity as a play-caller is undeniable. His Gators rank first in the SEC and second in the nation with 78 scrimmage plays of 10+ yards. 

Florida operates a run-heavy offense that relies on explosive plays from the quarterback position. Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson are dynamic playmakers with threatening, homerun ability. Mullen effectively dials up personnel groupings, formations, and pre-snap motions in order to isolate playmakers in space. The Gators average 540 yards of total offense per game including 322 on the ground. Florida utilized a pass-heavy offense a year ago. This season is more of a typical Mullen attack that is heavily reliant on the run game. Running backs Malik Davis, Dameon Pierce, and Nay’Quan Wright have combined for 560 yards and average 6-yards per carry. Here’s what Kentucky’s defense has to do to beat the Gators. 

Tackle the quarterback

Quarterback Emory Jones ranks second in the SEC with 13 carries of 10+ yards. Jones has 57 rushing attempts for 375 yards and 2 touchdowns. He’s averaging 6.6 per carry and 94 yards per game. The UF quarterback is also an effective passer. Jones has thrown five interceptions but is completing 67% of his passes. He is the most dangerous when running the football. 

Anthony Richardson exploded on the scene in 2021. His 25 yards per carry is downright scary. Richardson was held out of the Tennessee game but appears to be full-go for Saturday night. He’s also thrown for 192 yards and two touchdowns. 

Tackling the 1-2 threat of Jones and Richardson will be a challenge. Both are dynamic playmakers that can extend pass plays with their legs. The Gator signal-callers will test the Cats’ linebackers. Kentucky must find a way to get both to the turf and not give up explosive plays via the rush. In order to win, Kentucky cannot allow Jones and Richardson to combine for 130+ rushing yards. 

Force turnovers

Florida has turned the football over on six occasions in 2021 including five interceptions and one lost fumble. The Gators post a -3 turnover margin for the season. Kentucky is an 8-point underdog. Upset bids rely on game-changing moments. Kentucky will need to force two turnovers in order to beat the Gators. 

Win money downs

Dan Mullen is not afraid to roll the dice on fourth down. Preparing for four-down offensive series will be a consideration. Kentucky limited South Carolina to 3/12 on third down and 0/3 on fourth. That trend has to continue vs. the Gators. Holding UF to 40% or less on money downs will go a long way in pulling off the upset. 

Don’t chase shiny lures

Dan Mullen’s offense is jam-packed with diversionary tactics and trickery that are utilized to lure defenders away from the football. The Gators will deploy motions, unbalanced lines, exotic sets, and multiple personnel groupings in order to identify and exploit a personnel mismatch. Kentucky will need to be sound with their eyes and maintain defensive discipline on Saturday night. 

SPECIAL TEAMS

Win field position

The Florida defense is too good to ask the UK offense to go 85+ yards on a regular basis. The punt game will be important. The Cats can’t afford to let punts roll close to the goal line. In addition, Kentucky has to average more than 45 yards per punt. While this seems simple, hidden yards in the punt game have hurt the Cats in 2021. 

THE BOTTOM LINE 

Kentucky is 4-0 coming off three close-game wins. Florida is a top 10 team with its one loss coming against top-ranked Alabama. The Big Blue Nation has been pointing at this game for a year. It’s here. Florida week has been an anticipatory series of days that has the Commonwealth buzzing with football enthusiasm. 

Florida quarterbacks Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson are explosive playmakers that put a tremendous amount of stress on opposing defenses. Tackling the duo will be a difficult proposition. Limiting Dan Mullen’s QB-run heavy play calls could be one of the deciding factors in the game. 

Kentucky has faced defensive coordinator Todd Grantham on numerous occasions. The Gator defense relies on line of scrimmage havoc which places its secondary in one-on-one scenarios. The Wildcats have to protect Will Levis and connect on vertical shots. Also, Florida will crowd the line of scrimmage in pre-snap looks. Grantham will have multiple Edge defenders on the field at the same time. An example of this aggressive scheme is that strong safety Trey Dean leads the team with 26 tackles and 2 tackles for loss. Chris Rodriguez Jr. tops the SEC in explosive run plays. If he can break through the first line of defense, the Wildcat running back could have another huge night. 

Kentucky is searching for an identity. We’ve seen four different Wildcat teams in four separate games. Kentucky has yet to put together a complimentary, complete game. If it does so on Saturday night, Kroger Field could be the location for a massive celebration. Florida is a top-10 team for a reason. The Gators are fast, talented, deep, and extremely well-coached. Turnover margin is the most critical stat. An upset bid would be nullified if Kentucky continues to cough up the football. 

The Big Blue Nation wanted its team to be 4-0 going into the Florida game. It got its wish. A sold-out Kroger Field is going to provide a boisterous atmosphere for a substantial SEC East matchup. A Kentucky win would give the Cats an advantage in the East and serve as a program validator. Saturday night is the most anticipated home game in quite some time. A win is attainable, but it won’t come easy. Thus is life in the Southeastern Conference.