What Kentucky needs to do to beat North Carolina

It isn’t an exaggeration to say that Kentucky’s basketball season is at a crossroads. Kentucky is 1-4 yes, but also without any mid-major cupcakes to make things right against here in mid and late December. And while there were obviously positive signs to take away from the Notre Dame game last week, at some point, it can’t just be about moral victories, but winning games.

Which brings us to Saturday. We haven’t quite reached “must win” territory for the Wildcats. But man are we getting close. And would it be nice to pick up a surprise win over the Tar Heels.

And the good news is – it can be done. I truly believe that the schedule change from UCLA to North Carolina could be a blessing in disguise, taking a tough, veteran team (UCLA) off the schedule and instead adding a talented but young team, which is still trying to figure itself out. No different than Kentucky, honestly.

So yes, there is a win out there to be grabbed by the Wildcats.

Here is what they need to do to get it:

Turn Caleb Love over 

For those unfamiliar with North Carolina’s personnel, the Tar Heels – like Kentucky – have a freshman point guard leading the way. That is Caleb Love, a McDonald’s All-American from a season ago who chose the Tar Heels over Louisville, Kansas, Missouri and a host of other big-time programs. To his credit, he has had plenty of moments where he has looked like a burgeoning star, averaging 11 points per game so far this season.

Yet while Love has shown flashes of what made him so highly coveted, he has also shown flashes of well, being a freshman point guard. In other words, he’s turning the ball over way too much. To be clear, it happens to every freshman and it’s no different than what has happened at Kentucky all season long. But like Kentucky’s young players, Love has been careless with the ball, averaging nearly four turnovers per game.

Therefore, while a big part of the Wildcats’ game-plan needs to be focused on taking care of the ball themselves (more on that coming) quite a bit more has to be pressuring Love, and forcing him into quick and bad decisions.

And the good news for Kentucky is that they have the guys to do just that.

As a matter of fact, out of everything about this game, what I’m most curious about is who Kentucky throws on Love defensively. While the obvious play would be to stick Davion Mintz or Devin Askew (whoever is starting) on him, my hunch is that the Wildcats put one of their many big wings on him. After all, what’s the point of having the craziest length in college hoops if you’re not going to use it to your advantage, which is why I’d expect John Calipari to throw some combination of Terrence Clarke, Jacob Toppin, Cam’Ron Fletcher and BJ Boston at Love throughout the game.

All those guys have shown flashes defensively. And nothing would help the Wildcats get a win on Saturday, more than getting Love off his game.

Limit turnovers themselves

Listen, I get that this group is young, and asking them to limit themselves to say, single digit turnovers is unrealistic.

But to their credit, there was a positive step in the right direction for the Wildcats last Saturday when they turned the ball over just 11 times against Notre Dame. This, after they turned the ball over at least 16 times in their previous three losses (including 21 against both Richmond and Georgia Tech). Now maybe part of that was that Notre Dame simply doesn’t create all that many turnovers (when they played Duke on Wednesday, the Blue Devils only had eight), but it’s still a step in the right direction.

It’s all pretty basic, but the fewer times you turn the ball over, the more shots you get on the basket. And the more shots you get on basket, the more likely you are to, you know, win games.

We’ll see if last week’s performance against Notre Dame was an aberration or a major step in the right direction.

Be juuuuuuuuust a little bit better shooting the three-point ball 

Again, this kind of speaks to the point above. Everyone understands that this team isn’t shooting the ball all that well right now. And because of it, no one is asking them to be turn into the Golden State Warriors overnight. So therefore, rather than setting an unrealistic goal of say, shooting 40 percent from three on 25 or 30 attempts, it should be to just get a bit better until this team gets to a respectable.

Considering that they’re only shooting 24.4 percent as a team right now, it really can’t get worse.

And ultimately that’s what’s so frustrating about this group: They do have the shooters to be better than they are. I’ve written before and I’ll keep writing it because I believe it’s relevant, but this team should be a good three-point shooting team. BJ Boston and Devin Askew were both considered elite shooters coming out of high school. Davion Mintz was right around a 35 percent shooter in three years at Creighton. Terrence Clarke has shown the ability to hit threes and the same with Dontaie Allen when he gets into games. That’s also what makes the Wildcats’ performances so befuddling the last few weeks: How do they miss so many open threes?

Even in the close loss to Notre Dame, the Wildcats missed one after the other in the first half, which in part created the 22-point deficit they eventually had to dig themselves out of. They were able to dig out, but if they’d just been a tiny bit better from three, they could’ve won that game. Forget about Olivier Sarr’s missed jumper at the buzzer. If the Wildcats had just shot 7 of 23 from three (just 30 percent) instead of the 5 of 23 they shot, they win the game by one point instead of losing it.

Again, it isn’t about being “great” from behind the arc. Just “slightly better.” And “slightly better” is attainable. If only because they can’t be much worse.

Draw more fouls, which of course leads to more foul shots 

Call me crazy, but it feels like of all the different reasons given for Kentucky’s struggles – turnovers, lack of assists, three-point shooting – one that has largely gotten brushed under the rug is free throw shooting. Did you know that Kentucky only attempted six free throws against Notre Dame the other day? And only attempted 11 against Georgia Tech the game before that? That’s 17 total in two games, which is just an absurdly low number.

Looking at it in the big picture, Kentucky has only attempted 84 free throws all season long, an average of 16.8 attempts per game. For comparison’s sake, Louisville has played one less game and attempted 92, while Houston has also played four games and attempted 97 free throws. That’s an average of 24 attempts per game for Houston, nearly seven per game more than Kentucky.

With the Wildcats’ offense struggling they could use all the help offensively they can get, and it starts by attacking offensively. If you get to the line, that’s more possessions that don’t end in a turnover or missed three-point shot, and more easy chances at points. Again, one more trip to the free throw line and two more points last week beats Notre Dame.

So yeah, it’s about attacking on offense.

It’s also about..

Feeding Olivier Sarr

There are so many layers here, but let’s start with the obvious: Sarr played his single best game in a Kentucky uniform last Saturday against Notre Dame. The kid was 11 of 16 from the field for 22 points, to go along with seven rebounds. For the first time, he showed everyone why many – myself included – believed that he was the best transfer in the portal last summer.

So why was that (largely) the first time Kentucky has made it a priority to feed him on the post this season? Sure, there were moments against Richmond where the attempt was made, but that’s really it. And it needs to be more of a priority.

I would add that it is especially important against this North Carolina team. The Tar Heels are huge – HUGE – across the front-line, with four different players (Garrison Brooks, Armando Bacot, Day’Ron Sharpe and Walker Kessler) standing at least 6’11. So by feeding Sarr, you hopefully 1) Get a few early fouls on some of Carolina’s bigs 2) If he makes a couple shots early it creates doubles down low which leads to open shots for Kentucky’s shooters (which again, they will hopefully make).

Rebound, rebound, rebound

Every college basketball coach has a brand (or at least the good ones do anyway). Tony Bennett’s teams are about defense. Mick Cronin’s toughness. Bill Self’s are the best team money can bu — . Well, let’s skip that one. But North Carolina, it’s all about rebounding. Roy Williams is one of the few coaches who still likes to play two big guys down, and it pays dividends on the glass, year after year after year.

This year is no different, as North Carolina’s rebounding numbers are staggering. They are fifth nationally in total rebounds and 10th in rebound margin, averaging 16 rebounds per game more than their opponents. That’s right: A plus-16 margin!!! UNC also has four different players averaging at least 6.5 boards per game, including a guard (Leaky Black) and a guy off the bench who barely plays 20 minutes a night (Day’Ron Sharpe).

Safe to say the Wildcats will need to bring their hard hats. And it will be a night where Sarr, Isaiah Jackson and Lance Ware, among others will need to be ready to play

More than anything – keep building off last week

Listen, I understand the frustration of fans right now. If it feels like a month since the last time the Wildcats won a game, well, that’s because it basically was. Every loss adds up and weighs everyone down. There is no denying it.

But, for the first time, it really did feel like there were some positive signs to point to coming out of the Notre Dame last week. Most of them we’ve already talked about, centering on a lack of turnovers and a great deal of fight that was shown from this young team down the stretch. Seeing the team rush over to pick up Olivier Sarr when he missed what would’ve been the game-winning jumper was a great sign that this team is starting to “get it.”

Therefore, it’s really all about building off last week. Learning from all these losses and hopefully applying it, so that those bad losses that became a close loss last week can turn into a win.

It won’t be easy, especially against a good North Carolina team on Saturday.

But it can be done.

Now it’s up to Kentucky to do it.